All this talk about connections vs direct trains reminds me of Network Rail's much-maligned "Improving Connectivity" idea. That report has migrated from the internet into its locked cellar, so I can't provide a link to it. But,
apart from being discussed on this forum,
this page from RailFuture is still there, and says this:
Thirdly, whatever its merits it seemed to many that IC▸ should have adopted a 4th and overriding principle. Having identified ‘major hubs’ in the East Anglia network it should have developed a service pattern between them that did not then require a change of trains en route. The prime example was Ipswich to Peterborough (for ECML▸ ) which relied on changing at Newmarket, an inconvenience bound to surrender even greater market share to the A14! It also overlooked the potential for additional platforms at Ipswich in favour of connecting at Stowmarket or Manningtree. Operational convenience seemed to carry more weight than passenger experience (or capital cost!).
Fourthly, its obsession with the avoidance of duplication read like a plan for cuts, “How do we do the same with less or more with the same”. It did not sit comfortably with stakeholder ambition for improved services and reduced overcrowding in a fast growing region. Poor though many local connections are, East Anglia’s biggest ‘connectivity’ problem is the lack of through services to other regions unless via London.
As ever, you need to read that original report to understand why they proposed that, and that removing duplication per se wasn't an objective.
On the other hand ...
this is from SNC Lavalin, who appear to be touting for business as timetabling experts:
Without intervention, the rail market will continue to lose out. Too many people are choosing other modes of transport because end to end rail journeys are ill-coordinated and don’t meet customers’ needs. A long wait for a connection can be the tipping point when deciding what mode of transport to take. The detail of the timetable can make the difference between a journey taking three hours or five hours and resulting in the car being the quicker and easier option. Given that only 1% of possible rail journeys on the network are currently served by direct trains, the importance of good interchange cannot be overstated.
A connection-based timetable is entirely feasible in Britain. It has a proven track record in both Switzerland and Austria, whose rail networks have some of the highest market shares in Europe. The key to unlocking Britain’s potential lies in designing the timetable earlier in the infrastructure development process.
Our existing process, where infrastructure plans are passed from Network Rail to government for funding without designing the timetable that will eventually operate on them is a barrier to this change. These plans state the expected future service levels (i.e. how many trains per hour will operate) but not the timetable and, therefore, are incapable of considering the needs of people who interchange.
I'm not convinced by what they say about how infrastructure is planned now. But given the vicious circle of missed connections making people value direct trains highly, and timetabling around direct trains making the connections bad even when not missed, there is something in their approach.