A scattering of South Wales (valleys) flows

[whole diary]

[grahame]

From the recent work I have been doing, some interesting ticket flow data:

70% of tickets sold to / from Ebbw Vale Parkway are to / from Cardiff Central - the highest percentage I have seen:


People travel to Barry Island not only from Cardiff Central but also from lots of the other stations - classic days out?


Cardiff International Airport traffic comes from a wider (much more regional rather than local) selection of stations:

That is not entirely clear, in hindsight, from the screen capture in this thread - a very large number of stations each with a few passengers further down the list - see http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/flows.html?stn=3876

These examples probably confirm what out Welsh members could have told us anyway?

[jamestheredengine]

Cathays is probably an interesting one.

[Hafren]

Busy 'off-peak' trains towards Barry in summer (with less mid-route changeover at Cardiff than usual) indicate that there are strong day tripper flows, not to mention the complaints on social media about overcrowding. The Barry Island one shows the value of direct services - Pontypridd, Merthyr etc vs places like Caerphilly that might be expected to produce similar demand. I wonder if the switch of routes will affect numbers, or if the established passengers will accept the change and new flows will develop.

Ebbw Vale is interesting - the Newport opened a while ago but had a very patchy service. When that beds in it there's probably a lot of untapped demand for Newport, given how nearby it is, but there's competition with frequent buses.

I don't see huge numbers of people with luggage on the VoG trains but there is probably some traffic to justify the Airport reference. I imagine a lot of long-distance passengers for the airport use the bus from Cardiff; it was originally suggested that there would be a fast VoG service but it never materialised, and would be difficult to path. Perhaps also some inbound commuting (airport staff & college) from origins that aren't immediately served by local buses?

Cathays pops up a lot... and it wouldn't surprise me if its commuter flows have held up better than some others post-Covid, given the student demand - both to Cathays, and commutes from Cathays to Trefforest. Although many of the students live in Cathays, anecdotally there do seem to be a lot who commute, along with university & associated industry employees.

[infoman]

Looking at those figures of 3,899 to and from Cardiff airport,that works out at ten passengers PER DAY.

I think most of them would be non U.K. residents

My reasoning is that, how do most of get to the various airports in the U.K.

Lets take Bristol airport for example,I think most of us would get taken there OR drive ourselves to the airport

[grahame]

To clarify - the numbers shown alongside each station are the NLOC code, which is a unique four digit code assigned to each ticketing point / station in the national system.  It's the identifier used on all the data in the raildata set that I have used to extract these reports from.  There's a nightmare of coding schemes ... all of which seem to have sightly different metrics
CRS code
NLOC code
TIPLOC code
STANOX code
NaPTAN code

And of course you can identify stations by
Full official name
Name as printed on tickets
Latitude and Longitude
OS^▸ (Ordnance Survey) Grid reference (to varying granularity)
Postcode
What three words

Passenger numbers at Cardiff International Airport, Rhoose, was 153,094 (ticketed) in the April 2022 to March 2023 year. Here are the numeric details


 

[grahame]

Cathays pops up a lot... and it wouldn't surprise me if its commuter flows have held up better than some others post-Covid, given the student demand - both to Cathays, and commutes from Cathays to Trefforest. Although many of the students live in Cathays, anecdotally there do seem to be a lot who commute, along with university & associated industry employees.

Cathays is [also?] an inbound commuter station - I can recall using the station when I was giving a training course there and [in those days] it was a physically small station and I recall crowded platforms and cramped staircases.

[Hafren]

Cathays is [also?] an inbound commuter station - I can recall using the station when I was giving a training course there and [in those days] it was a physically small station and I recall crowded platforms and cramped staircases.

Often my commute destination and still the same - narrow platforms (extended for 6 car trains that never happened), narrow exits with ramps leading to cramped gate huts (one a bit bigger for booking office). Would be fine if it were a wayside halt, but as the peaks flow both in and out, rather than one way morning and the other in the evening, there are clashing flows when trains arrive. People arriving at platforms often stand right by the exit, and people waiting to get on are blocked off by people getting off as there isn't space for both. The up platform's gates used to be part-time effectively, depending on staffing, but now there's remote assistance from the other side. People whose tickets don't work therefore block the flows while working out what they need to do to escape.

The strip of space for the station is fairly narrow (bearing in mind it was a reopening) but there are dead spaces between the platform railings and boundary walls which might allow for a bit of widening.

[IndustryInsider]

Opened in the early 80s I see.  Quite a lot of cheap stations opened around them and during the subsequent ten years or so.

Most were poorly designed with narrow platforms, few facilities, and poor/non-existent disabled access that wouldn’t get approval today. 

I wonder what the predicted use of Cathays was expected to be at the time?  A million passengers a year (pre-Covid) requires a station with a much larger footprint!

Recent station openings have been expensive, but at least they, generally, have been designed well.

[Hafren]

Several valleys (re)openings in that era (thinking about it, not sure OTTOMH if Cathays was a 're') as industry declined, meaning less capacity used by freight and more commuting needed as people had to look further for work. I'd guess they knew student & related employment numbers would be a significant part of the demand, but also AIUI^▸ (as I understand it) student numbers are substantially higher now.

The eventual Metro frequency increase might distribute demand a bit, but I'm a bit apprehensive - the train-trams are about the same length as a Pacer, so even with doubled frequency the total capacity won't be much of an increase on the pre-Covid peak, if we simplistically say train length (metres not cars) is a direct measure of capacity. I wonder if the sparks effect would offset the post-Covid commuting loss, such that the capacity is eaten quickly.

[grahame]

Cathays is an astonishing station ... definitely a commuter "sponge" over a lot of stations.

[Hafren]

Cathays is an astonishing station ... definitely a commuter "sponge" over a lot of stations.

The number of journeys to CDF^» (Cardiff - next trains) & CDQ is intriguing- the sort of suburban journey that usually fares badly in competition with bus and foot. It's different if making that journey to connect with the main line, where there's no extra cost (same fare as CDF from most places last time I checked) but clearly rail is competing well here if people are willing to pay for such a short journey. Perhaps evenings out where rail is seen as a viable, safe alternative to walking or taxi contribute to this. Perhaps there's a lesson for the many places where closely-spaced suburban stations do badly in the stats, although Cathays has relatively unique access to education & work destinations and a local population dominated by a demographic that uses public transport a lot.

Range of changes also interesting... local flows and established student flows like Trefforest/Pontypridd doing well. Bristol has held up quite well - students who live near enough to travel home regularly, inter-university work flows, day trips (I could imagine BRI^» (Bristol Temple Meads - next trains) being a popular destination for students esp the overseas ones who like to see sights) etc.  Llantwit Major and Llandaf have dropped badly - places where the flows will be the CYS-bound work commute, and fairly affluent so car ownership would be high?

A lot of issues over recent years to stifle demand as well - not just Covid, but major reliability issues during one of the leaf fall seasons (2018/9 ish), and a lot of closures for Metro upgrades (including today, in fact). No Rhondda origins in the top 20 but I wonder how the recent, long Treherbert closure would have affected things.

[grahame]

Perhaps evenings out where rail is seen as a viable, safe alternative to walking or taxi contribute to this. Perhaps there's a lesson for the many places where closely-spaced suburban stations do badly in the stats, although Cathays has relatively unique access to education & work destinations and a local population dominated by a demographic that uses public transport a lot.

I have only quoted part of your post - but the whole metrics are fascinating.  And there is an opportunity (perhaps someone takes that opportunity) to learn so much more on the ground too.  I can look at the Melksham (sorry, here I go again) figures and say "that is because" as well as having some surprises - much of it come from  travelling irregularly on the line (to see the total picture not just a regular train).

Cathays doing so "well" - err, is it doing well?  Or could numbers be even higher?  I don't know.  I do know it has frequent services and an attractive employment and educational area its serves.  I know it has a station where the facilities are bursting at times.   Cost, ease of access to nearby facilities, reliability, competing alternatives, length of service hours all reflect on how it's doing.   Cardiff Central (only 10% of passengers) could be real cross city flows or people who but tickets to / from Cardiff and then an add on / split tickets and, yes, I know it costs more that way.  Note that Ebbw Vale Town at the other extreme is 70% to Cardiff Central.   It's 30% from Llandaf - next stations, I think? http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/flows.html?stn=3844

[Hafren]

I wonder if the CYS-CDF^» (Cardiff - next trains) journeys include people who book an advance ticket to CDF, and then a day return to CDF - either because the advance fares are only available on the main line flows, or because CYS isn't on their radar, until they look into it nearer the time and realise there's a decent local service that drops them right where they want to go.

I think the difference between Llandaf and Ebbw Vale will be down to the direct trains; the difference is less stark if the 'big 4' Cardiff station figures are aggregated. Someone travelling from Llandaf to Cardiff Bay or somewhere near but not immediately adjacent to Queen Street station will go to the relevant station. Someone from Ebbw Vale might choose to avoid the change (or extra change for CDB) and walk from Central. If I were doing that journey on a season ticket I'd buy the CDQ/CYS ticket (same price) or maybe even CDB (slightly more typically, unless recently changed) to keep options open; maybe if I lived in Ebbw Vale and worked in Cardiff Bay I'd usually walk from Central, but maybe use the train to the bay if it's raining, or walk to Queen St for shopping after work before going home from there. But I assume most would just pick a 'usual' station.