The next decades - aspirations and needs into a joined Wiltshire picture

[whole diary]

[grahame]

About 30 years ago, there were no trains at all leaving Trowbridge between 08:00 and 09:00 for Bath and Bristol. After the 08:30, nothing left Chippenham for London until 09:45.  And Sunday day trip trains from Westbury to Weymouth left at 08:32, 10:02, 10:45 and 12:40.

About 20 years ago, trains at 08:02 and 08:25 would take you from Trowbridge to Bath in that morning period, Chippenham to London was running hourly (08:38, 09:38, 10:38 ..) and Sunday trains from Westbury to Weymouth left at 08:20, 09:36 and 10:00.

About 10 years ago, a train at 08:23 ran from Trowbridge to Bath amd Bristol during that hour, Chippenham to London was every half hour, but no Sunday services ran from Westbury to Weymouth until the afternoon, even in high summer.

Today, trains run at 08:00, 08:24 and 08:51 from Trowbridge to Bath and Bristol, and trains run every half hour from Chippenham to London. Just two Sunday morning services run from Westbury to Weymouth - at 09:12 and 10:10, then there's a four hour gap.

A picture of change. And you'll find pictures of change right across Wiltshire if you take other examples - look at how services at Melksham, Pewsey, Avoncliff have changed.  Most changes in the past three decades have been for the best - service improvements - but there have been losses too.  Turn up at Bristol Temple Meads at 23:15 on a Friday night and you'll find that the last service to Chippenham and Swindon left at 22:35 (there used to be a 23:20).  No longer is there a direct train from Stockport to Warminster. Want to leave Melksham early for Swindon and the 05:56 I remember from my early involvement is gone - first train as late as 07:19.

So we have been in a world of changing train service patterns and journeys.  And there's everything to suggest that there will be more changes to come over the next decades too.  Journey numbers up or down by 10% in a single year may not be a basis for significant changes, but journey numbers going up and down by 10% year after year, and the increasing urbanisation of Wiltshire, point to an onward and upward pressure on efficient transport to help us get around.

There is no shortage of ideas. Some are in the process of being implemented. Others are in late planning stages or in serious scoping studies. Others are at earlier stages - concept papers, seeds of ideas - and of those some are feasible and may happen, some are good but may get overtaken or replaced by other ideas, some will fail to make te grade as studied in more depth, and others are just plain wacky.   But - so many of these ideas interact!   Where will we be in 10 or 20 years from today?

I'm going to take you to Westbury, in the year 202x.   Ten trains are calling there in each clockface hour.

05: A train arrives from Portsmouth Harbour and continues on via Bath and Bristol to Cardiff Central. It's a regional express, calling at major stations along the way - very little changed in that pattern from its form today in 2018, apart from an extra stops at Wilton Parkway and Aztec West. But it's 5 carriages long, corridor throughout, and runs on third rail electric traction from Portsmouth to Salisbury, diesel from there to Bathampton, and then on overhead electric for the rest of its journey.

10: The Cardiff Central to Portsmouth Harbour service calls - the reverse working of the train already described.

15: The London to Exeter semi-fast calls.  London, Reading, Newbury, and all stations to Taunton, Tiverton Parkway and Exeter St David's. Alternate trains carry on to Paignton and to Plymouth, with infill local serices there in the extra hour.  New statios on this service are Devizes Parkway and Langport. Wellington and Cullompton will be served by Bristol to Exeter (and beyond) services.

20: The Exeter to London semi-fast calls. (full desription - other direction).

25: The Frome to Newport train calls. An all stations service - including Staverton, Bathampton, Saltford, Horfield, Aztec West and Westgate. Services extend from Newport to Ebbw Vale under an agreement with the Welsh train operating division.

30: to 40: The Oxford to Fawley train calls (full description - other direction)

35: The Severn Beach to Weymouth train calls (full description - see other direction)

45: The Weymouth to Severn Beach service calls - an all stations service which includes new stations not open as I write at Grimstone, and Queen's Camel and Sparkford. New stations served north of Westbury are at Staverton, Bathampton Park and Ride, Saltford, and Portway Parkway.

40: to 50: The Fawley to Oxford train calls. This service runs from Fawley and Hythe, via Southampton Central and Airport and Eastleigh to Salisbury and Westbury, then on via Melksham to Swindon and on to Oxford. It's an all stations service; in addition to stations open in 2018, it calls at stations on the Fawley branch, Petersfinger Park and Ride, Staverton Junction, Royal Wootton Basett and Grove Road and Wantage. Under an operating agreement with another train operating division, these trains carry on beyond Oxford via Bicester and Bletchley.

55: The Newport to Frome train calls (full description - see other direction)

This is purely a possible vision; infrastructure enahnacements undoubtedly needed in places. I have not included anything that's not a usable rail route at present, tempting though it was to speculate about Radstock, and a south to west curve at Yeovil.  New stations can to some extent be asyncronous with service development.

Wiltshire services not calling at Westbury (but stopping elsewhere in the county) will include the two trains an hour from London via Reading, Swindon, Chippenham and Bath Spa to Bristol, with an extra electric service making additonal stops at places such as Bathampton, Corsham, Royal Wootton Bassett, Grove Road and Wantage and Didcot, and running in to London via Heathrow.  In the south of the county, the 30 minute frequency Salisbury to London service will run all the way on 3rd rail electric, with extra calls at Porton and Wilton, extended hourly (at least) via Tisbury headed towards Exeter.

Away from Wiltshire, many of the trains above will dovetail in with other services to provide the full local service in that area. For example, the Frome to Newport train will dovetail with the Weston (or Portishead) to Parkway service, extended to Cardiff, to provide a more frequent stopper from Bristol into South Wales

History sources - old National Rail timetables from 1989, 1998 and 2007.

[IndustryInsider]

Shows how far we’ve come in terms of frequency on many routes in the last 30 years.  Something I’ve pointed out myself in several posts over the years.

I fear recent spiralling costs and delays for committed projects, along with a less vibrant economy mainly due to Brexit fallout, and a DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) that keeps tinkering about but still can’t structure the railways properly, will mean many of these won’t see the light of day, certainly not in the 20’s.  But we can hope, and your continued personal efforts to keep the momentum shifting forwards are much appreciated.

[eightf48544]

Interesting ideas.

Do you envisage the 4th platform at Westbury being bought back  into use? THat would give the opportunity of cross platform interchanges between the London and Salisbury/Weymouth trains in both directions.

i don't think you'd get third rail from Southampton/ Eastleigh to Salisbury would  need to be 25KV as would Basingstoke to  Reading/Laverstock South Junction (one curve still to be ticked off)/Exeter. This would fit in with the National Freight Spine

[grahame]

Interesting ideas.

Do you envisage the 4th platform at Westbury being bought back  into use? THat would give the opportunity of cross platform interchanges between the London and Salisbury/Weymouth trains in both directions.

There is good logic in re-instating the fourth platform at Westbury.  Whllst things may work without it if everything's running to time and during the working day, at service start / end times, during peaks where things are varied, and when a train is out of path or a special / extra is running it would be useful in the extreme. 

As timed, there are two both-way cross-platform swaps during each hour, for local trains arriving from the Swindon and Bristol directions and carrying on to Weymouth and to Southampton, and they could be accommodated on platforms 2 and 3.     

The timing of the West of England service calls is interesting and open for argument and may in any case be a difficult one to adjust, with so many potential connection directions. Once you're up to 2 trains an hour between Westbury and Warminster and Westbury and Frome, four an hour to Trowbridge and three an hour to Bradford-on-Avon,  the need to time things to make those London connections becomes less - there's always going to be a reasonable connection in each hour.     

Westbury is also (at present) a significant connector from the Portsmouth Harbour and Swindon services for passengers headed for Plymouth and Cornwall.  The incoming Portsmouth service remains hourly, but backed up by a second train from Southampton which generates a lot of the traffic (not half hourly though).  The incoming Swindon train steps up to clock face hourly.   The train headed west steps up from the present sporadic services to a train every 2 hours in (now) May next year, and with well talked / respected thoughts of going up to hourly. However, current plans have it terminating for the most part at Exeter St Davids's.    Traffic can be characterised on this routing as being long distance, occasional, and averse to multiple mid-journey changes.   Should the semi-fasts be terminated as per the EXD^» (Exeter St Davids - next trains) plan, I can see Swindon to far west traffic changing at Bristol Parkway or Temple Meads, and Chippenham traffic changing at Temple Meads - that's presuming that Cross Country still run far enough west.    Traffic coming up from Portsmouth and Southampton, forced into multiple changes (for surely people will not dogleg via Bristol?) may as well change at Salisbury and Exeter - a shorter distance than changing at Westbury and Exeter.

My original post was intentionally light on infrastructure comments.  I can see some re-doubling and / or dynamic loops, and careful consideration of platforms - re-opening for passenger use at Salisbury, and retracing and reopening at Westbury (see above), Chippenham and Frome; that latter a very interesting case as the Radstock proposals might or might not go ahead and a whole host of options available to increase capacity, all of which seem to have significant pros and cons.    Frome comes out of the crystal ball gazing with a massive service increase; considering that thousands of new homes are planned on land that adjoins the railway near the current station, that massive service increase would - with all the jigsaw pieces joined - lead to a massive train footfall increase too.

[grahame]

Interestingly, the question of future capital funding for economic development after Brexit has been raised and I have taken a look with a joined up Wiltshire picture ... not boring members with the whole text here, but the graphic:

[eightf48544]

Not sure I understand the graphic.

[grahame]

Not sure I understand the graphic.

No attempt on my part to fully explain in ... 

It's geographic - with the current TransWilts stations identified with red labels and various traffic flows diagrammatically off from the ends.   Shows what a lot there is to go up and down that single line between 22 and 24!

[SandTEngineer]

Grahame, shall we start a 'guess the station' quiz 

[Adelante_CCT]

23 = Melksham 

[grahame]

23 = Melksham 

Corrrrrect

[SandTEngineer]

The extreme ends of the central corridor are unbalanced for a regular interval service to each.  How could that be addressed?

[devonexpress]

Interesting ideas.

Do you envisage the 4th platform at Westbury being bought back  into use? THat would give the opportunity of cross platform interchanges between the London and Salisbury/Weymouth trains in both directions.

i don't think you'd get third rail from Southampton/ Eastleigh to Salisbury would  need to be 25KV as would Basingstoke to  Reading/Laverstock South Junction (one curve still to be ticked off)/Exeter. This would fit in with the National Freight Spine

Westbury does need back its platform 4.

[Clan Line]

Westbury does need back its platform 4.

   According Rail Magazine (3 years ago) that would cost £10.5 Million  !!!

[grahame]

Westbury does need back its platform 4.

According Rail Magazine (3 years ago) that would cost £10.5 Million  !!!

It rather depends on what you look at the cost of, of course. 

Sadly, the Christmas "remodel" is just a relay ... opportunity being passed by.