Watch list - changes to times and connections as main line services are recast

[whole diary]

[grahame]

Following on from the topic at http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=18459.0 - "Principles for changes at timetable re-casting - Local and regional principles to consider at times of main line timetable change" - I have made some initial notes of things to look out for over the next year or two.    Looking at Greater Wiltshire and Swindon here, and going light on stuff the comes into other CRP^▸ (Community Rail Partnership)'s specific areas of responsibility - but I have copied this to the two that the Swindon to Salisbury service touches upon in order to establish if there are any conflicts (none reported - much more agreement  ).

On my radar / "watch list" are ...

Code:

TransWilts peak capacity
TransWilts Sunday morning
TransWilts northbound early Saturday evening
Transwilts late evening, esp from Swindon
TransWilts "reverse" commuters - to Trowbridge at normal peak
TransWilts commutes into Swindon - near-peak gaps
Link TransWilts south from Westbury
Link on to Oxford at Swindon?

Dilton Marsh - "decide on your market"
Early morning Sunday train from Warminster 

Frome inbound / outbound commuters (and other gaps?)
Frome to Taunton

Westbury connections ... what's important if not a through service?
Swindon / Chippenham to Salisbury and Southampton
Portsmouth / Southampton to Taunton, Plymouth and beyond
Swindon / Chippenham to Taunton and beyond
Swindon / Chippenham to Weymouth
Bedwyn / Pewsey to Trowbridge / Bath. Also Paddington / Reading to Trowbridge

Other connections
Note current THROUGH traffic Melksham to Kemble
Note current THROUGH traffic between Swindon / Chippenham and Cornwall
From Swindon and south west there of to Oxford at Didcot
From Melksham at Trowbridge and at Chippenham to Bristol
From Wiltshire to the Midlands and North
From Swindon and Chippenham to Plymouth and Cornwall

Later train(s) Bristol and Bath to Chippenham
Plug Chippenham to Bristol gap - 06:42 to 07:44 from Chippenham
Plug Bristol to Chippenham gap - 20:30 to 21:50 (Bristol times)
Note gap in arrivals at Chippenham from Swindon - 21:58 to 23:05

Extend 2 hourly semifast London - Reading - Newbury - all stations to Exeter to Paignton?

[bobm]

If you are talking about a gap between Chippenham and Bristol in the mornings there is, of course, a similar gap from Swindon (06:28 to 07:30).

[grahame]

If you are talking about a gap between Chippenham and Bristol in the mornings there is, of course, a similar gap from Swindon (06:28 to 07:30).

Same gap, in fact  ... and no option to change at Bristol Parkway (or at Trowbridge) either.    Not sure where you would get the train from in the current timetable - all the stock's doing important things like commuter runs into London prior to forming daytime trains out to the country.  But one to watch as IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) comes in and there'e a recast.

[Rhydgaled]

On my radar / "watch list" are ...

Dilton Marsh - "decide on your market"
Early morning Sunday train from Warminster

Frome inbound / outbound commuters (and other gaps?)
Frome to Taunton

Before I continue, I should point out that I've no idea what the established travel patterns in the area are, but:

I tend to think that in general, where there is a choice of routes and not enough resources (track capacity, rolling stock etc.) to serve them all then it is best to choose the ones that are most-direct. With an indirect route, rail will not be time-competitive against road travel so the passengers you would get on an indirect route are more-likely to be ones with no choice of mode, and hence more-likely to grudgingly accept the need to change train. For example, instead of the Gloucester/Worcester-Bristol trains carrying on to Bath-Westbury-Weymouth I think they should go to Weston-Super-Mare/Taunton (replacing the Cardiff-Taunton service along with Swansea-Bristol Electrostars). I hope that sounds logical to others and my logic isn't flawed...

For the TransWilts, Chippenham to Dilton Marsh and Frome both look reasonably direct BUT Bristol/Bath to Frome/Bruton is not so I'd suggest 2tph Bristol-Bath-Westbury-Salisbury-Southampton (one semi-fast (Cardiff-Portsmouth) and one slower, serving Dilton Marsh and perhaps going via Chandlers Ford and Eastleigh) and Swindon-Melksham-Westbury-Frome-Weymouth/Taunton. If that last one went to Taunton, might it also open up the possibility to serve a new station or two between Castle Cary and Taunton? Weymouth is a difficult one; with Bristol being such an important place the through link is presumably important, but they are quite a way apart for a stopping service* and between Bath and Castle Cary it is far from direct.

* that probably applies to Swindon-Taunton as well, although I suppose long-distance stoppers aren't a problem if there is an operttunity to change onto a fast service that overtakes the stopper for passengers doing the whole journey.

[grahame]

On my radar / "watch list" are ...

Dilton Marsh - "decide on your market"
Early morning Sunday train from Warminster

Frome inbound / outbound commuters (and other gaps?)
Frome to Taunton

Before I continue, I should point out that I've no idea what the established travel patterns in the area are, but:

I tend to think that in general, where there is a choice of routes and not enough resources (track capacity, rolling stock etc.) to serve them all then it is best to choose the ones that are most-direct. With an indirect route, rail will not be time-competitive against road travel so the passengers you would get on an indirect route are more-likely to be ones with no choice of mode, and hence more-likely to grudgingly accept the need to change train.

Your logic is not flawed, but other factors come in too which tend to drown some of its elements.

1. Unlike Wales and Cornwall  , Somerset and Wiltshire haven't had lots of EU^» (European Union - about) roadbuilding grants chucked at them, so journeys of a short distance as the crow flies can take silly-long on the road.  We're about 27 miles from Bristol Airport. We allow an hour to drive at a very quiet time of day, 90 minutes at busy times

2. For cities, it's not all about car driving - it's about parking the darned thing when you get there too, so a circuitous route to a city, even if relatively slow, may not be all bad.

3. There are well established flows - Frome to Bath and Bristol for example - which is where we are today, and this isn't about chucking users off one of today's flows because something else may be more logical for tomorrow.

For example, instead of the Gloucester/Worcester-Bristol trains carrying on to Bath-Westbury-Weymouth I think they should go to Weston-Super-Mare/Taunton (replacing the Cardiff-Taunton service along with Swansea-Bristol Electrostars). I hope that sounds logical to others and my logic isn't flawed...

Traffic through Bristol may not be all that huge, with linkage perhaps being more considerate of the stock types and run lengths that the numbers.   I understand that one of the bidders against First at the last refranchise spent some time watching trains to see what through traffic was like ... urban myth says they got chucked off the station for acting suspiciously.

For the TransWilts, Chippenham to Dilton Marsh and Frome both look reasonably direct BUT Bristol/Bath to Frome/Bruton is not so I'd suggest 2tph Bristol-Bath-Westbury-Salisbury-Southampton (one semi-fast (Cardiff-Portsmouth) and one slower, serving Dilton Marsh and perhaps going via Chandlers Ford and Eastleigh) and Swindon-Melksham-Westbury-Frome-Weymouth/Taunton.

Thank you and no thank you.  Swindon and Chippenham to Frome is important, as is Bristol / Bath to Frome and beyond; best is an hourly Cardiff -> Portsmouth, an hourly Bristol to Frome with most / ideally all on to Yeovil and Weymouth, and an hourly Swindon - Romsey via Southampton Airport.  2 way, cross platform connection between the latter trains at Westbury please.   I know it looks like 2 arcs touching each other rather than a neat cross, but much ain't bust at the moment, so don't fix it ... and you have an awful lot of Chippenham / Swindon to Salisbury / Southampton / Airport traffic which will be encouraged by the direct train - no need to duplicate the route of the hourly express in an hourly local - bit of a waste of though prospects!

If that last one went to Taunton, might it also open up the possibility to serve a new station or two between Castle Cary and Taunton?  Weymouth is a difficult one; with Bristol being such an important place the through link is presumably important, but they are quite a way apart for a stopping service* and between Bath and Castle Cary it is far from direct.

Westbury - Frome - Cary - Taunton should be a different services when the class 802 timetable change has happened; Go-op may see it as part of their extension plans for their trains Swindon to Westbury, but Chippenham - Taunton isn't crying out for a direct service via Trowbridge, even though it's probably to loose the direct trains via Bristol.
[/quote]

[Rhydgaled]

For example, instead of the Gloucester/Worcester-Bristol trains carrying on to Bath-Westbury-Weymouth I think they should go to Weston-Super-Mare/Taunton (replacing the Cardiff-Taunton service along with Swansea-Bristol Electrostars). I hope that sounds logical to others and my logic isn't flawed...

Traffic through Bristol may not be all that huge, with linkage perhaps being more considerate of the stock types and run lengths that the numbers.

I would argue that my suggestion is more considerate of stock types than the current suituation (unless Filton bank electrification has been canceled), allowing electric Wales-Bristol services and with Gloucester-Taunton being a secondary stopping service (outer-suburban) where class 165s/166s might be suitable, with XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) being the fast service on the route. The extra (slow) service to Southampton might also allow a few stops to be removed from the Portsmouth which should use end-door stock like the current 158s (but with more carriages) rather than the outer-suburban Networker Turbos currently planned. Fewer stops on the fast service means fewer station dwells for the long-distance door layout to effect.

3. There are well established flows - Frome to Bath and Bristol for example - which is where we are today, and this isn't about chucking users off one of today's flows because something else may be more logical for tomorrow.

Good point, I am generally in favour of trying not to break things that currently work well and that's the sort of local knowledge I don't have.

Swindon and Chippenham to Frome is important, as is Bristol / Bath to Frome and beyond; best is an hourly Cardiff -> Portsmouth, an hourly Bristol to Frome with most / ideally all on to Yeovil and Weymouth, and an hourly Swindon - Romsey via Southampton Airport.  2 way, cross platform connection between the latter trains at Westbury please.

So; Chippenham to Frome is important, but they have to change at Westbury in favour of through trains from Chippenham to Southampton? Or can Melksham justify a 30min interval service, alternating between Frome/Taunton and Southampton (that sounds great if that's the case)? Or, sticking with an hourly service, run to Southampton and Taunton in alternate hours?

Westbury - Frome - Cary - Taunton should be a different services when the class 802 timetable change has happened; Go-op may see it as part of their extension plans for their trains Swindon to Westbury, but Chippenham - Taunton isn't crying out for a direct service via Trowbridge, even though it's probably to loose the direct trains via Bristol.

I wouldn't have thought the class 802s would go via Frome very often; I thought they were ordered to replace the fast Paddington-Plymouth/Penzance services (for which IC125s were intended to be retained until the class 802 order was announced). Now that you mention the new Intercity trains, there was some talk of an hourly class 800 Paddington-Westbury semi-fast under IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.), maybe extending to Taunton or Exeter (every two hours?) but I can't remember the details (like whether it would call at Frome).

Chippenham - Taunton might not be too important, but it would give the Chippenham to Frome link you said was important, and the Frome to Taunton service on your 'Watch List'. From all the above, we could get this through Westbury:

• 1tph Cardiff-Portsmouth (fast service with 158s or similar)
• 1tph Bristol-Weymouth (not sure what rolling stock would be suitable)
• 1tph Bristol-Southampton (stopping service with Networker Turbos)
• 0.5tph Swindon-Melksham-Salisbury-Eastleigh-Southampton  (stopping service with Networker Turbos)
• 0.5tph Salisbury-Eastleigh-Southampton (stopping service with Networker Turbos)
• 0.5tph Swindon-Melksham-Frome-Taunton (stopping service with Networker Turbos)
• 0.5tph Paddington-Frome-Taunton (class 800 semi-fast)

Does that work or is it too much (or too little for some flows)?

[grahame]

So; Chippenham to Frome is important, but they have to change at Westbury in favour of through trains from Chippenham to Southampton?

Yes. Because Swindon / Chippenham to Warminster is just as important at Swindon / Chippenham to Frome.  Before you add in Swindon / Chippenham to Salisbury. And Swindon / Chippenham to Southampton and to Southampton Airport.

It's possible that a morning start / evening finish train at Westbury to Swindon could start / finish back at Frome - making one commuter service in from Warminster and the other in from Frome ... but note that connections are key.

Or can Melksham justify a 30min interval service, alternating between Frome/Taunton and Southampton (that sounds great if that's the case)? Or, sticking with an hourly service, run to Southampton and Taunton in alternate hours?

Whether or not you could justify a 30 minute service, you won't be able to run one without significant infrastructure investment which is outside the scope of this discussion / time frame.

Modifying your list within scope of current stock levels:

• 1tph Cardiff-Portsmouth
• 1tph Bristol-Weymouth (may be reduced frequency at south end of route)
• 1tph Swindon-Melksham-Salisbury-Southampton-Eastleigh-Romsey
• 0.5tph (or 1.0?) Paddington-Frome-Taunton-Exeter (alternates with BRI^» (Bristol Temple Meads - next trains)-WEY to give Frome hourly or better

Does that work or is it too much (or too little for some flows)?

In that form it does work - before it was a bit much

[John R]

I would argue that my suggestion is more considerate of stock types than the current suituation (unless Filton bank electrification has been canceled), allowing electric Wales-Bristol services and with Gloucester-Taunton being a secondary stopping service (outer-suburban) where class 165s/166s might be suitable, with XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) being the fast service on the route. T

Indeed it has (well "paused"), so your suggestion is unlikely to work for some years to come.