Rail demand on the up (Wiltshire Business 02/78/2010)

[whole diary]

[JayMac]

From the Wiltshire Business:

A significant increase in demand for rail travel during the first six months of 2010 has seen a return to growth in passenger numbers on the railways not witnessed since before the recession.

Analysis published today by the Association of Train Operating Companies shows that October 2009 marked a turning point when demand on the railways began to recover and that since the start of 2010 overall demand for rail travel has begun to grow significantly.

During the first quarter of the calendar year 2010 (January to March) passenger journeys rose by 4.4% when compared to the same period last year; during the second quarter of 2010 (April to June) passenger journeys rose by 6.1%; during the first six months of 2010, there were 681m passenger journeys.

This compared with 648m during the first six months of 2009 ^ an overall rise of 5.1%.

Demand has grown on all parts of the railways since the turn of the year.

There are over a billion journeys made on the railways every year, with journeys up 60% since privatisation in the mid 90s.

The trend of strong growth is expected to continue as demand is forecast to double within the next 20 years.

Michael Roberts, Chief Executive of ATOC^» (Association of Train Operating Companies See - here), said: ^The strong growth in passenger journeys that we have seen since the turn of the year is hugely encouraging, both for the railway industry and for the broader economy.

^Passenger rail underpins economic growth, supporting thousands of businesses and helping millions of people every day to get to work, meet friends and family or just to get out and about to have fun."

[Electric train]

But don't expect the Government to change their minds on cutting services or investment in the railways

[IndustryInsider]

But don't expect the Government to change their minds on cutting services or investment in the railways

Indeed - I fear they will conveniently base their spending on figures that were based on the previous years much smaller growth when the recession was biting hard.

[JayMac]

From the Daily Telegraph (02/08/2010):

Rail passenger numbers up as recession eases

The number of people travelling by rail has increased, reversing the downturn which hit the industry during the recession.

According to the Association of Train Operating Companies, there was a 5.1 per cent increase during the first six months of this year compared to the same period in 2009.  The figures were described as "hugely encouraging" by Michael Roberts, ATOC^» (Association of Train Operating Companies See - here)'s chief executive.

"But it is vital that we don't take the nation's fragile recovery for granted. The threat of the economy slipping back into recession remains real and serious," he said.

The biggest rise has been on long distance rail journeys, which have risen by more than seven per cent. This was slightly ahead of the rise in commuter traffic into London, which was more than five per cent up on 2009. Commuter lines were hit particularly badly during the recession which cost thousands of jobs in the financial sector.

However the recovery has also triggered renewed fears of overcrowding at a time when the Government has put Labour's plans to introduce 1,300 extra carriages on hold. The easing back of demand had reduced pressure for the additional capacity at a time when the Department for Transport is bracing itself for sweeping spending cuts in the Autumn.

Already one operator, First Great Western has moved to stop second class passengers standing in first class carriages, especially when the train pulls into the station. The move, which is expected to be followed by other train operators, was condemned by Bob Crow, general secretary of the RMT^▸ (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers) transport union.

^First Great Western, which creams off tens of millions in public subsidy every year, is sending out a message to passengers that they can^t even stand in the entrance area to First Class carriages and will be crammed into cattle trucks at the other end of the train. This is a disgraceful way to treat passengers who fork out a fortune in fares to pump up the profits of the First Group."

Don'tcha just love Commie Bob? Guaranteed for a rent-a-quote, which is often over-the-top. I'd hardly describe MK^▸ (Milton Keynes) III Trailer Standards as "cattle trucks".

Oh, and could someone remind the ladies and gentlemen of the Fourth Estate that we haven't had 2nd Class for quite a few years now?

[willc]

Guaranteed for a rent-a-quote

No need to pay Bob, the service is free!

[IndustryInsider]

Oh, and could someone remind Fleet Street's finest that we haven't had 2nd Class for quite a few years now?

The re-branding of Second Class.  Must be about as long ago as virtually all the journos deserted Fleet Street? 

[JayMac]

  Post edited to change 'Fleet Street's finest' to 'the ladies and gentlemen of the Fourth Estate'. 

[inspector_blakey]

No need to pay Bob, the service is free!

Absolutely right! Not to mention readily provided, whether it was asked for or not...

[Super Guard]

From the Daily Telegraph (02/08/2010):

"This is a disgraceful way to treat passengers who fork out a fortune in fares to pump up the profits of the First Group."

And what about the fortune that our 1st class passengers fork out to sit in this part of the "cattletrucks" ?

[Trowres]

There's a place for humour, but I can't help but feel that the news being reported deserves somewhat more serious and practical consideration.

Mind, anyone who "expects a trend to continue" ought to check very carefully the underlying reasons for that trend, and the likelihood of those reasons prevailing for the next 20 years. 

[JayMac]

You're absolutely right, Trowres. Please accept my apologies for steering the thread away from the original topic. It's just that 'rent-a-gob' Bob Crow gets on my wick.

[Trowres]

No need to apologise, BNM, but let's get down to business. Why a sudden resurgence in demand in 2010? What could be the factors at work?

Suggestions:
* No big increases in regulated fares in Jan 2010
* Holidays in UK^▸ (United Kingdom) instead of abroad (both as economy measure and due to exchange rates)
* rebound in petrol prices
* better services (e.g. Cornwall branches; Bradford on Avon)
* return of bonus culture.

We'll have to wait a long time for 2010 detail to be published by the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about), but I'll bet that the growth has big variations between areas - (or is it between operators?)

[grahame]

[snip] Why a sudden resurgence in demand in 2010? What could be the factors at work?

Suggestions:
* No big increases in regulated fares in Jan 2010
* Holidays in UK^▸ (United Kingdom) instead of abroad (both as economy measure and due to exchange rates)
* rebound in petrol prices
* better services (e.g. Cornwall branches; Bradford on Avon)
* return of bonus culture.

Could there be other factors too such as:
* a greater consciosness of green issues,
* less negative publicity about FGW^▸ (First Great Western) being unreliable and overcrowded
* growth in towns like Chippenham and Trowbridge
* Higher parking charges
* Changes in employement where people will take ANY job, including those with long(er) commutes

The real "trick" for forecasting and arranging appropiate future services is to analyse these elements and find out which apply - and look at volumes and whether they're short term blips, step changes, or will be cumulative