Chiltern - a point of no return??

[whole diary]

[grahame]

Picking up on this ...

Woah! It seems that these strikes are going to be far more disruptive than previous RMT^▸ (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers) strike days. For example, Chiltern:

Industrial action short of a strike is planned to take place from 13 December – 8 January inclusive.

I thought this was cancelled when they announced the NR^» (Network Rail - home page) strikes 24-27 December? This means for them, on top of only services 0800-1600 on strike days -

During this time there will be no Chiltern Railways service operating north of Banbury.

There will be no Chiltern Railways on any route on Sunday 18th December.

Services will operate from around 0800-1600 for most of this period.

During times of operation, there will be four Chiltern Railways services per hour in each direction: 

One train per hour (each direction) between London Marylebone and Banbury
One train per hour (each direction) between London Marylebone and Oxford Parkway
One train per hour (each direction) between London Marylebone and Aylesbury via High Wycombe
One train per hour (each direction) between Aylesbury Vale Parkway and Amersham.

every day from 13 December to 8 January inclusive, not just strike days

Not heard from GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) or any others that disruption will be this widespread....can this be correct?

Are we headed for a point at which a balance is tipped, people will get routinely used to there nt being a train service, and the service simply won't come back?

From ITV Central

Chiltern Railways has announced a cancellation of all Midlands services for almost a month because of the ongoing impact of industrial action.

Members of the RMT union will take part in strike action on December 13 to 14, 16 to 17 December as well as from January 3 to 4 and 6 to 7.

Additionally, industrial action is going to affect services between, December 13 to January 8.

Key information for services from December 13 to January 8 has been issued on the Chiltern Railways website.

The website reads: "We advise customers to only travel if absolutely essential throughout the whole period of industrial action.

"There will be no Chiltern Railways services operating north of Banbury.

"There will be no Chiltern Railways services on any route on Sunday 18th December.

"Services will operate from around 08:00-16:00 during most of the period of industrial action.

"If your journey is essential and you do decide to travel, plan ahead, allow extra time and expect short notice cancellations and changes.

[CyclingSid]

Taking a wider view, looking at the Travel to Work data from the 2021 Census
Note this was during lockdown.

569,000 (2.0%) travelled by bicycle

529,000 (1.9%) travelled by train

Even allowing for lockdown I would not have expected expected more cycling than train use. Car was obviously the most used form of transport.

More at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/traveltoworkenglandandwales/census2021

[IndustryInsider]

Assuming this is the case, it’s an incredibly poor showing from Chiltern. 

[ChrisB]

Does seem to point to their entire Sunday service relies on voluntary overtine?

What I an struggling to understand is why their weekday non-strike days are affected no heavily north of Banbury? Eitger there is quite an anount of voluntary overtine during the week as well (thus capping at Banbury saves a number of turns required) or else their guards/train managers are all on zero hours contracts & thus are all volunteering? I can’t believe the latter, so it must be the former. I wonder how many drivers they are short of to run at least the weekday & Saturday full timetable? Must be quit a few….i do know that they are advertising for drivers (both qualified & trainee) - there’s an ad up at Banbury that’s been there several months now

[IndustryInsider]

Does seem to point to their entire Sunday service relies on voluntary overtine?

What I an struggling to understand is why their weekday non-strike days are affected no heavily north of Banbury? Eitger there is quite an anount of voluntary overtine during the week as well (thus capping at Banbury saves a number of turns required) or else their guards/train managers are all on zero hours contracts & thus are all volunteering? I can’t believe the latter, so it must be the former. I wonder how many drivers they are short of to run at least the weekday & Saturday full timetable? Must be quit a few….i do know that they are advertising for drivers (both qualified & trainee) - there’s an ad up at Banbury that’s been there several months now

I am equally puzzled.  The vast majority of drivers will be with ASLEF^» (Associated Society of Locomotive Engineers and Firemen - about) who are not currently telling its members to take 'action short of a strike', so they should have as many drivers reporting for duty as they have today, for example.  The large majority of its services run DOO^▸ (Driver-Only Operation (that is, trains which operate without carrying a guard)).  Only services running north of Banbury require a guard (along with the few loco hauled diagrams) AFAIK^▸ (as far as I know), so why the decimation of service south of Banbury as well?

Surely they can do better than this?

[grahame]

Surely they can do better than this?

Have they been told to operate at this new level?  Does someone see what they consider to be duplication

North of Banbury, there are other trains run by Cross Country to the next station at Leamington Spa. West Midland Trains then operate to Nuneaton via Coventry, and as you get up to Dorridge there are more services too.  Just the 2 Warwicks and Hatton to sort out?

[ChrisB]

It’sa question that Ishall pose to their Stakeholder manager shortly.

They also have ‘Chiltern only’ fares to Birmingham…are rgeae going to be removed fron sale - or will CrossCountry goingto accept them across these dates? I have already askes this via social mesia withoutyet getting a response. The Chiltern only fares are up to £5 cheaper, so hoping that XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) will acrptthem, but frankly, I’m doubting it, so effectively, a price increase for a worse service (last XC southbound is 2204!, first northbound 0655). About an hour earlier/later than Chiltern

[IndustryInsider]

It effectively means there is no service for the popular commuting route between Bicester and Oxford for four weeks!

First train from Bicester to Oxford at around 09:45 (and that's only to Oxford Parkway).

Lots of other similar examples as well.

[brooklea]

Surely they can do better than this?

Have they been told to operate at this new level?  Does someone see what they consider to be duplication

North of Banbury, there are other trains run by Cross Country to the next station at Leamington Spa. West Midland Trains then operate to Nuneaton via Coventry, and as you get up to Dorridge there are more services too.  Just the 2 Warwicks and Hatton to sort out?

And Bearley where 15 trains per weekday drops to four, while Claverdon loses 16 of its 20 weekday stops. Good way to kill-off demand before you have to justify removing services altogether 

[grahame]

Surely they can do better than this?

Have they been told to operate at this new level?  Does someone see what they consider to be duplication

North of Banbury, there are other trains run by Cross Country to the next station at Leamington Spa. West Midland Trains then operate to Nuneaton via Coventry, and as you get up to Dorridge there are more services too.  Just the 2 Warwicks and Hatton to sort out?

And Bearley where 15 trains per weekday drops to four, while Claverdon loses 16 of its 20 weekday stops. Good way to kill-off demand before you have to justify removing services altogether 

It's clever.   Passenger numbers at Bearley were 1,394 last year, and Claverdon 2,386 ...

[IndustryInsider]

It’sa question that Ishall pose to their Stakeholder manager shortly.

Did you get any kind of response you're able to share, Chris?

[ChrisB]

I understand that it's down to overtime in the cramped depot at Aylesbury. Seems that a lot of overtime needed (why not employ a further shift?) there to process all the units necessary in order to provide the stock for the daily timetable. A ban on overtime (including Sundays) means fewer or no stock availability.

[IndustryInsider]

A very weak excuse IMHO^▸ (in my humble opinion).  Still, the government must be happy to sanction it.

[ChrisB]

Quite. Or preventing them from recruiting further depot crew gives them no choice but to?