Bright or bleak? pundits both ways!

[whole diary]

[ellendune]

Whatever government is in power, the most immediate problem will be "Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooz goona pay for all this".
Well, we are of course.
Just how, apart from taxes and pay freeze will be decided quite quickly, but the recession across the world will take some time to shake off.

Of course the balance between taxes rises and (public sector) pay freezes is a political decision. If you are a monetarist (like Thatcher) then tax cuts would be the last thing you would do as that takes money out of the economy. However, if you are a follower of Keynes then you would not freeze public sector pay as most public sector workers are low paid and so any increase would be spent (not saved) and would go back into the local economy. 

[Robin Summerhill]

Whatever government is in power, the most immediate problem will be "Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooz goona pay for all this".
Well, we are of course.
Just how, apart from taxes and pay freeze will be decided quite quickly, but the recession across the world will take some time to shake off.

Of course the balance between taxes rises and (public sector) pay freezes is a political decision. If you are a monetarist (like Thatcher) then tax cuts would be the last thing you would do as that takes money out of the economy. However, if you are a follower of Keynes then you would not freeze public sector pay as most public sector workers are low paid and so any increase would be spent (not saved) and would go back into the local economy. 

There is also the issue of low paid workers tending to be entitled to more state benefits, so freezing low pay is often a lose-lose situation for the Treasury.

[stuving]

This was one of today's Zoom-bites, for which I've now found my source - the Times of 15 may. It was based on what Grant Shapps said at the previous day's press conference, largely ignored though it was in the Telegraph and the Mail. All headlined it as about free car parking to keep workers off public transport.

This is the start of the Times's piece:

Free car parks to keep workers off public transport as lockdown eases
Graeme Paton, Transport Correspondent
Friday May 15 2020, 12.01am, The Times

Motorists could be spared parking charges in town and city centres amid claims that commuters have a “civic duty” to avoid public transport during the coronavirus crisis.

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, said yesterday that the government was in talks with councils and entertainment venues to use their car parks to allow more people to drive to work free of charge.

The £11.50 a day congestion charge in central London has already been suspended to allow key workers to reach the city and it is hoped that local authorities across Britain could follow the same spirit.

Later, he is quoted as saying "We are encouraging people to drive perhaps close to but not right into a town or city where they work in and find a place to park. So we are working not just with local authorities but also with some large entertainment venues which have car parks that aren't being used at the moment."

The Telegraph (and I think the others) cited the suspension of the London Congestion Charge as an example of the same kind as free parking - but of course that was reintroduced on the same day (15th May) as the papers appeared, and with the proposal from TfL^» (Transport for London - about) to increase it to £15.

[grahame]

From The Spectator

Is this the end of the line for public transport?

News that rail fares are to rise by 1.6 per cent in January, and public transport fares in London by 2.6 per cent, would normally be met with outrage – how dare they jack up the fares again when the trains are late and I can’t get a seat. Yet this time around the news has hardly raised a whimper. After all, who uses trains any more? There’s some sort of semblance of normality returning to shops, pubs, restaurants. But larges parts of the public transport network have been all but abandoned – even though the government is no longer officially telling us not to use them.

Department for Transport figures from Monday show use of national rail services to be running at just 23 per cent of the level they were at the beginning of March. Tube journeys are running at 30 per cent, London bus services at 53 per cent and buses outside London at 41 per cent. There are relatively few passengers left to complain. Many commuters have seized the opportunity presented by Covid-19 to try to free themselves from the daily slog to the office – and will do all they can to put off returning to their offices.

[snip]

Sooner or later, the government is going to have to confront this. Is it going to go on subsidising public transport in the hope of trains, buses and trams picking up where they left off, or is it going to revisit public transport investment? What about Crossrail 2, HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) and Transpennine services? Is investment in them still going to be justified?

Don’t be surprised if urban planners start reimagining public transport not in the form of carriages but pods – automated vehicles which take individuals and small groups of people at a time. The cattle trucks which transported commuters in the early 20th century may soon seem a relic.

Edit: Fixed link - RS

[TaplowGreen]

Private Eye has a very interesting and similarly pessimistic view in it's latest issue on page 17 "Losing tracks", followed by a typically incisive view of another aspect of the HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) saga from Dr B Ching!

[Red Squirrel]

From The Spectator

Is this the end of the line for public transport?

News that rail fares are to rise by 1.6 per cent in January, and public transport fares in London by 2.6 per cent, would normally be met with outrage – how dare they jack up the fares again when the trains are late and I can’t get a seat. Yet this time around the news has hardly raised a whimper. After all, who uses trains any more? There’s some sort of semblance of normality returning to shops, pubs, restaurants. But larges parts of the public transport network have been all but abandoned – even though the government is no longer officially telling us not to use them.

Department for Transport figures from Monday show use of national rail services to be running at just 23 per cent of the level they were at the beginning of March. Tube journeys are running at 30 per cent, London bus services at 53 per cent and buses outside London at 41 per cent. There are relatively few passengers left to complain. Many commuters have seized the opportunity presented by Covid-19 to try to free themselves from the daily slog to the office – and will do all they can to put off returning to their offices.

[snip]

Sooner or later, the government is going to have to confront this. Is it going to go on subsidising public transport in the hope of trains, buses and trams picking up where they left off, or is it going to revisit public transport investment? What about Crossrail 2, HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) and Transpennine services? Is investment in them still going to be justified?

Don’t be surprised if urban planners start reimagining public transport not in the form of carriages but pods – automated vehicles which take individuals and small groups of people at a time. The cattle trucks which transported commuters in the early 20th century may soon seem a relic.

Edit: Fixed link - RS

I think he means 21st century rather than 20th.

There may be something in some of what he says. Just as the open-plan office (loved by employers but not-so-much by the folk who work in it) may be killed off by COVID-19, so too may be the open railway carriage. Personally I'd be more than happy to see a return of the compartment, at least as an option.

[Bmblbzzz]

I'm a fan of compartments, but it does depend who else is there. And I know some women who have rather unpleasant experiences in the seclusion of a compartment that would be unlikely in a larger, more open carriage. So yes, bring them back, but as an option. Though I dare say there are structural reasons against them nowadays (weight? crashability?).

[Wizard]

I imagine there is far more likelihood of the railway being closed altogether than compartments returning to the network.

[eightonedee]

Surely a confined compartment in a railway carriage shared with strangers is the last thing anyone would want in the current circumstances?

If you go back to cellular offices you either are on single occupancy or can run a shift or rota system in shared rooms which is what my firm is doing in offices with such accommodation.

Not a fan of compartments myself, although my view is probably tarnished by commuting in tired old Mark 1 stock in the 1980s

[Red Squirrel]

I imagine there is far more likelihood of the railway being closed altogether than compartments returning to the network.

We'll see. In my limited experience of returning to shops since the outbreak, 'compartmentalisation' using perspex screens of one sort or another seems to be becoming the norm. Possibly this might not help in trains, where air-conditioning systems may make a nonsense of it...

Surely a confined compartment in a railway carriage shared with strangers is the last thing anyone would want in the current circumstances?

If you go back to cellular offices you either are on single occupancy or can run a shift or rota system in shared rooms which is what my firm is doing in offices with such accommodation.

Not a fan of compartments myself, although my view is probably tarnished by commuting in tired old Mark 1 stock in the 1980s

Compartments can work very well if you are travelling in a family group. If railways are ever going to produce a modal shift from the private car, mightn't this be a way forward? I'm not suggesting that all trains should offer this kind of accommodation for every seat, but that perhaps some trains should offer it for some seats.

[stuving]

There was Paul Clifton piece on South Today² about the new SWR^» (South Western Railway - about) trains (class 701) now sheepishly showing their faces. It was introduced with "are they really needed now?", and involved asking Mark Hopwood that question. At lunchtime he was asked much the same thing several times, and all his answers expressed confidence that passenger numbers would recover, to a limited extent, once the schools were back and, to a less limited extent, once the virus was overcome. Money wasn't mentioned (apart from the 1 £Bn price tag.

In the late evening show this bit was edited down tom just one question, but the Paul Clifton bit still dwelt on the fact that they were designed to maximise passenger load and un/loading speed by their greater standing space, and the recovery of that peak loading is far from certain on any timescale.

[MVR S&T]

Might be a good opertunity to get rid of the 455/456, as I note the 701 have at least some toilet provision. Which I was surprised about.

[grahame]

From The Spectator

Sooner or later, the government is going to have to confront this. Is it going to go on subsidising public transport in the hope of trains, buses and trams picking up where they left off, or is it going to revisit public transport investment? What about Crossrail 2, HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) and Transpennine services? Is investment in them still going to be justified?

From Building Design

TfL^» (Transport for London - about) mothballs Crossrail 2 and Bakerloo line extension because of pandemic

Crossrail 2 and the extension of the Bakerloo line have officially been put on hold, the commissioner of Transport for London has said.

Speaking at a meeting of the London Assembly's transport committee yesterday, Andy Byford confirmed TfL has now paused the two projects, which are worth a combined £36bn.

50953191306_0db10c4bc6_k
Problems on the Crossrail scheme have helped mothball work on Crossrail 2
He said: “We’re not tone deaf. We do know that there is a financial crisis in the country, £2 trillion of debt now. So, we won’t be able to do everything.

“The two headline projects that are on hold are Crossrail 2 and the Bakerloo line extension."

But he pointed to transport secretary Grant Shapps’ recent safeguarding of the route for the £4bn Bakerloo line scheme as an indication it has been delayed rather than cancelled completely.

Last week, Shapps published guidance on safeguarding the route, due to run from the Elephant & Castle to Lewisham via the Old Kent Road and New Cross Gate, which protects necessary land from development.

Byford said TfL would also be seeking safeguarding for Crossrail 2, which involves building a railway line linking south-west and north-east London, as well as towns across Surrey and Hertfordshire.

[Article continues]