The impact of population change and demography on future infrastructure demand

[whole diary]

[brcw2]

Christmas and new year holidays say 4 days of extra demand
Easter another 4 days of extra demand.
Glastonbury, 2 days
Fridays preceding bank holidays, and the bank holiday itself, 6 days a year.
Racing at Cheltenham, 4 days a year
Racing at Newbury, 4 days a year.
Popular events at Butlins, Minehead, 2 days a year.
Major rugby matches at Cardiff, 1 day a year.
Major football matches in London, when one team is from Wales or the West, 2 days a year.
Probably at least another 6 days for events that I have omitted.

What quantity of extra stock are we talking about here?  The numbers that would ideally be added for the public holidays are of a completely different order to those for the sporting events - though I'm not denying that any number of extra carriages would be handy.  (And other events omitted could well include the other smaller music festivals that happen all over the place in the summer - there seem to be at least four every year along the Cotswold Line, causing minor chaos & delays there). 

The other significant issue is pathing these trains.  At most of the biggest flows, there's little or no capacity for extra trains to run - though, again, with a bit more rolling stock available, some of the existing trains could be lengthened without having to cannibalize other services.

[broadgage]

I was anticipating in the region of 6 or 8 extra trains, probably HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) as these now older trains should be affordable to lease or even to purchase outright, as compared to the very substantial costs of IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) or other new trains.

The exact pattern of use would depend on many factors, but in view of the limited paths available in peak hours, priority should be given to lengthening services, rather than to additional trains.

As an example, consider two services that are booked to each be formed of a 5 car DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit), but that are now expected to be unusually busy.
Substitute an HST for one of the 5 car units, and couple together both the 5 car units to provide a full length train for the other service. Across the two services, an extra 7 or 8 coaches have been provided but taken up no additional path, nor required any extra train crew. Many other permutations are possible.

Outside of peak hours, paths are more readily available and running several additional trains, each an HST, should be entirely doable in connection with say sporting events that finish in the evening.

[grahame]

As an example, consider two services that are booked to each be formed of a 5 car DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit), but that are now expected to be unusually busy.

Totally in agreement with you (as describe up-thread) that main line services out of Paddington at peak times should and can routinely all be 10 vehicles long.  That's not extra vehicles / trains for varied / occasional use - the suggestions for those is that they cannot provide extra service during the peak as the line's simply full already.  So the extras being talked about for events and specials may be fewer in number than you suggest as the standard daily fleet should fill these 5-car to 10-car gaps, and indeed they might be shared / used on a wider basis - if HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train), a single maintenance base and a fleet that covers nit only the Gold Cup, but also the St Leger and the Grand National, FA cup semifinals (weekends but not venues know well ahead of time) and so on.

[grahame]

One of the suggestions from Lord Adonis's Commission is that where existing transport systems are underutilised, they should be more utilised - there are a number of stations around which are set amongst countryside which offers only sparse traffic.   ....

From Property Wire

Land agents suggest more new homes should be built near railways

Yep, been sayin' that for years.  Let's change that to "near to stations" and indeed "stations with a useful service, either now or once the houses are built".

As examples ... Cranbrook, Copplestone and Dilton Marsh - though how joined up the thinking is at Dilton Marsh, I wouldn't like to say.  Catchment (nearest station for / within 3 km) around 9,000 but a car service better suited to its days as a country halt!

Other suggestions ... Avoncliff, Chetnole, Dean, Freshford, Pilning, Thornford, Yetminster, and space for houses close to places like Bruton, Frome and Yatton. They even built a new road to Freshford Station in order to get in equipment and components for the extended platform - pity it was a temporary setup and was taken away again after the work was completed!