what are the chances that someone (the tax payer) will end up having to pay compensation to Hitachi (for not using their new trains in electric mode) AND Scotland (for not releasing enough HSTs▸ for their new services)?
Not sure about the former, but I think the chances of the IC125s not being released for ScotRail are slim since ScotRail don't need the whole fleet (only 27 sets I think) and there should be enough bi-mode units (counting East Coast as well as Great Western) to allow release of that number of IC125s.
Scotrail are only taking 27 sets (split between 4 and 5 cars each so not full sets either). I hadn't factored in EC HSTs so you may be right.