Crystal Balls

[whole diary]

[grahame]

Computer Weekly reports

Stockholmstag, the train operator in the Swedish capital of Stockholm, is testing a system that can accurately predict train delays before they happen.

The company has built a prediction model, using big data, which provides a view of the entire commuter train system two hours into the future.

Putting all the jokes about knowing when trains will fail before they do aside, it has to be said that the current predicition systems used in UK^▸ (United Kingdom) displays are rather less good than a human would be supplied with the same data.   

I stood at Westbury last week on my way to the South West, and there was a 10:17 due on time, and a 10:10 from the same platform running 7 late, expected 10:17.   "Watch that be redirected to platform 3" I said to Lisa and , sure enough, it was.

I recall standing at Chippenham awaiting the TransWilts train.   A delayed HST^▸ (High Speed Train) to Bristol was shown, to be followed 3 minutes later by the Westbury train running on time "I don't believe that" said I, and indeed the Westbury fell back - it may have left Swindon 3 minutes behind the HST, but alas this wan't a supercharged "153-125" and it lost time ...

[bobm]

It doesn't take much to scupper the automated systems.

I persuaded two non train travellers to try the train to Bristol Parkway from Swindon on Sunday and then the bus to Cribbs Causeway.  An hour after they left I got a text saying how easy it was and how they would do it again.

Alas the return journey wasn't so easy.  The train manager on their train was taken ill at Cardiff and the train terminated, before being run empty to Parkway to pick up a new train manager and resume the service.  Now because the train changed headcode from 1Lxx to 5Lxx at Cardiff the screens at Parkway lost touch with it and just showed "Delayed" while in fact the train was running empty.  Worse still as it arrived at Parkway the usual announcement for an ECS^▸ (Empty Coaching Stock) move "Please stand clear, the approaching train is not scheduled to call" was triggered, before the train promptly stopped and the doors were released.

Luckily I was able to keep them in the picture by reference to Real Time Trains, but it shouldn't be that way.