Potential passenger numbers for the Portishead Line

[whole diary]

[Chris from Nailsea]

Looking ahead at these numbers (and mindful of a question from CfN on another thread ..) I did some calculations based on passenger journeys per head of population
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Portishead ... has a similar population to Melksham.  As a terminus, trains will only go one way and that will may make some difference to the stats, but then it will be largely a dormitory town for Bristol I suspect which will skew it the other way.  I would not be surprised to see between 350k and 400k journeys - say - 8 years in to the service.  That's an educated guess if "they" get it all right.

Many thanks for your consideration of my frankly rather theoretical question, grahame. 

However: if you are suggesting a possible figure of 400,000 journeys between Portishead and Bristol, in eight years time, I'd say that may be a rather low estimate. 

An annual passenger count of 400,000, split between commuters travelling both ways, for an average 200 working days of the year, works out at 1,000 journeys each day. And I'm using the definition of 'commuters' here in the sense of 'those who travel each way each day, to and from work', rather than the rather more tabloid definition of 'all of those who may travel on a train, however occasionally'.* 

With 'an appropriate' frequency of services on the Portishead branch, that could mean units travelling through Pill with hardly anyone aboard, for much of the day! 





* Daily Mail (and Btline) please note. 

[grahame]

Many thanks for your consideration of my frankly rather theoretical question, grahame. 

However: if you are suggesting a possible figure of 400,000 journeys between Portishead and Bristol, in eight years time, I'd say that may be a rather low estimate. 

Indeed - my calculation was based on the very low journey rate of 15 per head of population per annum.   Compare to Trowbridge and you're up to 650,000 ... and you get the same number if you scale it Exmouth.  Scale to Chippenham and you're at 1.2 million.  But it takes time for people to shift modes ... and move.

New research from mortgage and loan broker Ocean Finance suggests that  around 60 per cent of adults have lived in the same house for more than 15 years, while one in ten say they have not moved for 31 years or more.

Almost a quarter of those questioned have lived in 10 or more homes in their lives with moving unsurprisingly more common among younger people ^ 54 per cent of people aged under 25 have already lived in three or more places. On average, people typically move three more times before they are 45.

http://www.independent.co.uk/property/how-often-do-people-move-house-8969393.html

P.S. ... considering the rhetorical questions is very educational ... and I need to educate myself in such matters now that we're moving beyond the initial "well that's worked quite well" into "where could this go?"

[Chris from Nailsea]

Thanks again, grahame. 

My own experience, of driving a delivery van into and out of Portishead, particularly along the A369, and discussing the road traffic situation with customers already living in Portishead, suggests to me that many of them would quite happily turn from road to a train commute into Bristol. They already live in a 'dormitory town', but find it increasingly frustrating that it takes so long to drive into, and out of, Bristol - particularly in the traditional 'rush hour'. 

Much of the residential property in Portishead has been constructed in the past ten years - so the generally young professional occupants are perhaps more likely to adapt to using new methods of transport.

[Chris from Nailsea]

I have taken the opportunity to split a few posts off into this new specific topic here.