Great Western Coffee Shop

I know we are a few years off from the end of the franchise but the reality of the situation is that First own power cars and if they didn't win the franchise they could refuse to let the new franchisee have access to them.  The result of this is that First are likely to retain the Greater Western franchise indefinitely.  Is this fair?  There seems little point in having it refranchised if First are certain to win.

I'm sure any future 'Invitation to Tender' will take account of the rolling stock available. But it does make the service provision decisions a little more difficult, because, as it stands, any new franchisee will struggle to offer the same service as FGW currently do without those extra power cars.

A bit of a headache for the DfT, and I agree, it's a very strong bargaining chip for FGW.

Hmm.  ::)
 
Well, in view of the determination of previous governments to interfere with the running of the railways, and the Department for Transport's fixation with 'micromanaging' them, in terms of setting franchise requirements - is it any wonder that certain TOCs have acted to protect their own interests?

Surely, in the event that First Group failed to 'win' the new franchise, they would turn themselves into a mini-ROSCO and offer the power cars to the new franchisee under some sort of leasing arrangement; it seems unlikely that any commercial organisation would allow valuable assets to lie around rusting not earning revenue.

Unless of course there is some DfT / ORR rule which would prevent this!?! 

The HSTs will be almost life-expired if FGW win their franchise....

There is an interesting article in Modern railways this month called Stargate 2025 where a "Time Traveller" finds himself in a 23 metre coach weighing just 32 tonnes with seats lined up with the windows low seat backs powered, travelling to Aberdeen. At present with two diesel locos but easily substituted for an electric loco and a seated DVT when the wires are slung. Apparently it's 5 minuteds quicker than the IEP time for teh journey.

Allegedly called HST20 by Captain Deltic.

I can guess who the author is, a well known advocate of hauled stock with loco changes at the end of the wires.

HSTs Life Expired?

I can see FGW winning the franchise yet again in 2013.  I think FGW will just go on forever, at least during our lifetime anyway.

I'm looking forward to May 2013 to see if another operator takes over.  It will be a refreshing change.  But I think I'll be dissapointed.

I reckon they'll get their 3-year extension now - to 2016.....

The headlines on the franchise were that First are paying the government 1.1 billion pounds over the life of the perhaps-extended franchise, but the small print shows that the heaviest three payments are actually made in the final three years - as far as I recall, the net payment over the first seven years is/was 200k, and then 900k for the final three years.

On that basis, with the economy not as bright as it was in 2005, the decision First have to make may be far from obvious, and the fact that they own some of their own rolling stock might leave them in a position of some strength.  We might also expect to see (and indeed we are already seeing) some short-termism in the company's stance on certain things on the basis that the payback for any investment they make now needs to be very fast.

Which indicates that they'll apply for the extension, assuming that they are currently turning a profit, which I believe they are.

Can you confirm a source for the GW franchise itself making a profit for First?

Press articles at the time of their last published results.

Devil's advocate here, but is there any point at all in speculating this far ahead of time? ChrisB I would agree with you, think it's a fairly safe bet that the franchise will be extended to its full 10-year duration to 2016 barring some sudden and dramatic plunge in performance. That means that it will be a good 4 years or more before anyone even thinks about re-letting the franchise, and who knows what the financial or political climates will be like then. Let's be honest, we don't even really know if the franchising regime will continue in the same way it currently has.

So isn't this all something of a waste of time?

XPT, on what basis do you think First will have the franchise forever and why would that disappoint you? Do you really think that any of the other big companies like National Express or Stagecoach would be better in charge? Whoever ends up running the franchise can only work with the cards they are dealt by the government under the current system, which for FGW weren't that great - an ageing fleet that's not really big enough for the job, and the promise of new trains snatched away from them.

Hmmm, I'm on a focus group at the DfT tomorrow afternoon giving the public view on whatever they outline....

Would be interesting to hear some of the detail from that meeting, assuming it's not confidential! ;)

I have no idea yet - I won't know until I get there!

The hiccup with the GW franchise is the TV services between Maidenhead and Paddington Crossrail does not start to run until Dec 2017 but the FGW franchise runs out in 2013.  Will First (or who ever) be willing to run the service for a few years? First are already playing hardball over all the possessions being asked for up to May 2013

3 years extension will take it to May 2016.

THere's an 'odd' 18 months after that till Crossrail starts. My bet is that HMG will announce a delay in the re-franchise and agree a further 18 month extension to FGW to make a seamless re-franchise, with the CRossrail services removed.

http://londonreconnections.blogspot.com/2008/10/tfl-board-meeting-summary-dlr.html

The plan is to let the Crossrail franchise for 7 years from 2014.  This would initialy take over NXEA services from Shenfield to Liverpool Street and then FGW services from Paddington to Heathrow and Maidenhead from 2016 before Crossrail itself opens.

FGW services Paddington to Heathrow ??????

Jointly run with BAA at this time.

_{Edited to sort out quote. i_b}

Well I just get the feeling that FGW are going to be going for a loooong loooong time yet.  Maybe not forever, but another 20 years or so at least. They've been going since 1998 now, and in that time some of the other regions have had changes of franchise every few years.  FGW just seems to be going on and on and on.....

I've nothing really against FGW.  But It would be very interesting if another operator (ever!!!) took over.  To see how they'd change things from FGW, including perhaps a complete revamp of the timetables and even bringing back the London-Bristol(or beyond) express services(which FGW scrapped!), and perhaps introducing some brand new services(i.e. Bristol TM-London Paddington via Westbury and Newbury).  And it would be a change to see former FGW trains with different/new liveries.

But we'll have just to see what happens in May 2013.  Only another 29 months to wait!

Make that May 2016. I think the extension of the franchise to its full 10 years is a safe bet. So it's 65 months in all probability ;)

May 2016.  65 months wait yet.   Zzzzz somebody wake me up when we get to May 2016!

Even if it really will be that long, would be interesting if at least during that time FGW made some interesting changes to their timetables like I mentioned in my previous posting.

We are still basically using the December 2006 timetable with a few variations.  This may well turn out to be one of the longest running timetables.  Thinking back I can remember major changes in 1995 or 1996, 1999, 2004 and 2006.

Was it specific to GW or just First Group Rail Division?  Whenever results come out I haven't specifically seen GW franchise figures, just the doom and gloom cap & collar comments "Tax dollars bailing out FG" etc.

Odd you ask - First released this today....

"FirstGroup plc ("FirstGroup" or `the Group') reports the
following update on
    trading for the six months ended 30 September 2010 ahead of its
half-yearly
    results to be announced on 3 November 2010."

......

" UK Rail
     
    We are pleased with the performance of our UK Rail business
which has seen a
    continued strengthening in passenger volumes across all of our
rail franchises.
    Like-for-like passenger revenues grew by 4.4% in the period,
despite the
    reduction in regulated fares from January 2010. First Class
ticket sales are
    showing encouraging signs of improvement particularly with
Advance purchase
    fares, and we are seeing growth across all of our franchises on
Anytime, full
    flexible tickets. Across all of our franchises we continue to
focus on lowering
    the addressable cost base which has achieved substantial savings
in direct
    costs and reduced overheads."

So, nothing specific to FGW, but all positive. If FGW was dragging results down significantly, they would have to let shareholders know.

Grahame has posted earlier that FGW are due to pay ^1.1 billion to DaFT, in the next few years.

It will be interesting to see if DaFT does a GNER on them if they don't cough up. We are told that the govenment needs every penny it can get so if FGW don't cough up then DaFT just may take back the keys and keep any profit for the Treasury.

There's no inkling that they'll default that I've heard....

It doesn't seem to be confidential - consultation is here
http://www.dft.gov.uk/consultations/open/2010-28/

First Great Western as far as i know have nothing to do with the running of services into Heathrow believe its First Group that runs it in association with BAA.
and for those interested First Group Rail Holdings{ or i think thats what they are called } own 41 coaches and 12 power cars which are used by FGW  being 43092/93/94/97/98/122/153/154/155/158/194/198

The Heathrow Express and Heathrow Connect run something like this:

Heathrow Express is owned and operated by BAA. FGW/First have nothing to do with it.

As by the document below (Page 69), the Heathrow Connect is jointly operated by FGW and BAA. It's 'operated' under lease as far as Hayes to FGW and then the route into Heathrow by BAA. Seems massively complicated!

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/rail/passenger/invitationtotender/greaterwestern.pdf

Not just the service provision that is co-owned. The infrastructure from Heathrow Tunnel Junction onward is owned by Heathrow Airport Ltd and not Network Rail.

Indeed. Still maintained by NR though however.

This is why even when Crossrail opens, premium fares will still apply to Heathrow.

Yes Network Rail is the maintenance contractor to BAA it also controls the traction power and signaling on behalf of BAA much as it does on CTRL and is likely to do so for Crossrail central section although I believe this is still to be agreed

  All very complicated, really,  - Who owns what ? etc. etc.

  Perhaps the Government should incorporate all the trains/infastructure under a single administration.
  The benefits being a fully integrated rail system, and a fairer, 'customer friendly' retail system.

  Seems to work very effectively in some of the EU countries.

Hang on a sec did we not have something like that pre 1995  ::)

On the whole its rather uncomplicated- could be much, much worse I personally believe.

Sorry have to disagree.

The wheel rail interface is the most complicated part of the railway. To have different organisations to look after turning the wheel, maintaining the wheel and ensuring the rail will handle the turning wheel is in my opinion not conducive to running an effective railway.

To many Chiefs, not enough Indians, all persuing their own organisations' goals. It's a good job there are still a few good ex BR trained managers/engineers around to modify the bus managers way of running the railways

How do you work it out to be May 2016? The franchise commenced on the 1st April 2006 for a period of 7 years with the option of a three year extension. Therefore my caculations make the end as March 31st 2016!

March or May 2016, that's still one hell of a long wait!

I read with interest somewhere on this forum(the posting of which I can't track down) from someone saying it's possible the railways could be renationalised within the next few years, much like the good ol' days of BR.   Whoever posted that info, please elaborate more on that and tell us where you got the source of this info from.   It sounds just too good to be true!

As far as I can tell you seem to want change for the sake of change because you're bored with the current liveries and uniforms...?! Believe it or not, I don't think enthusiasts getting bored with the incumbent operator is a sound basis for the enormous upheaval of re-tendering a franchise ::)


Cropped up further up in the thread...I was just quoting what was said above. So technically if it is a mistake I get "error carried forward" and I'm not marked down ;) The franchise agreement (http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/rail/passenger/publicregister/current/fgw/fgwagreement.pdf) gives the "initial" end date as 31 Mar 13, so I think you're right. It probably gives the 2016 end date as well, but i can't be bothered to wade through all the text!

Under the current coalition government it probably is too good to be true. For example. Virgin's proposal for a two year franchise extention for the West Coast franchise in return for them paying for the remaining 9 carriage Pendolinos to be extending to 11 carriages has been rejected by the government as they believe they will get a much better return by allowing the franchise reletting process to go ahead in time for its renewal in 2012. Source was the Daily Mail. Sorry I don't have a link for the story.