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Title: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Chris from Nailsea on September 07, 2009, 19:39:49 From the BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/mid/8240681.stm):
Quote Arriva Trains Wales has submitted a proposal for a new direct train service between Aberystwyth and London Marylebone station. The company hopes to run two services a day, restoring a link with the UK capital which was withdrawn in 1991. The service would run via Shrewsbury and would use some of the same stations as the Wrexham and Shropshire (W&S) service to Marylebone. W&S has expressed fears a rival service could put it out of business. In April, Virgin trains dropped plans to run a competing service between Wrexham, Shropshire and London after W&S said it may not survive. Arriva said it had consulted widely to canvas local views and opinions, claiming the majority supported the proposal. Ceredigion MP Mark Williams and Montgomeryshire MP Lembit Opik both expressed support for the plans. "In Ceredigion we have now been without a direct London service for 18 years, and this service would both be extremely useful for my constituents, and help attract more tourists by making Ceredigion more accessible," said Mr Williams. Mr Opik added: "My only real concerns about a direct service from mid Wales to London were the reliability of the service, the quality of the rolling stock and whether their new service would harm the existing Wrexham to Marylebone service. However, following a number of meetings and discussions with Arriva trains, they have offered solutions to all three of these issues - by improving the carriages and timing their own trains not to directly compete with what's there already. Certainly, it seems an anomaly that, here in the 21st century, Ceredigion and Montgomeryshire lack a direct link with the British capital. Arriva are set to put that right, and that's got to be good for the region." Dee Reynolds, regional strategy director for Tourism Partnership Mid Wales, said a direct London service would provide a real alternative to car use and "dispel the myth that mid Wales is inaccessible". W&S marketing director Thomas Ableman has previously said Arriva's plans to "shadow" some of his company's routes was "clearly of concern to us". He added: "If Arriva's service plans do go ahead, it is highly likely that we will not survive. We don't mind fair competition - after all, it is essential for the success of open access operators like us. However, we are concerned that Arriva will be using assets funded by the taxpayer to compete with a newly established private operator. The trains they will be using are paid for by the taxpayer to run local services in Wales, not to duplicate our route to London." But Mr Bagshaw refuted this, saying the service between Aberystwyth and London would be run on a "commercial basis". Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Phil on September 07, 2009, 21:02:19 This reminds me.... Lembit Opik might be a good chap to get on board for the campaign for an improved Melksham service.
His parents lived in Melksham up until his father's death a couple of years ago - his sister still lives around here and his Mum's still got an allotment next to mine. So if he wanted to visit, what better way than by train! With a group save ticket for the Cheeky Girls, obviously. (though I seem to remember hearing he was no longer connected with them... oh well) Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 07, 2009, 21:17:23 I cannot see the point of this:
*I and the local user group feel the 158s wasted would be better used for an hourly service on the Cambrian line, which would actually help everybody. *There is already 3 tph to London from the same platform/one platform change at Birmingham International, making it a viable changing point. NB that changing here will be quicker than the direct service. *It is two trains, neither any good for business travellers. *Running 90 mph DMUs will affect Chiltern's desire to get 100 mph in as many places as possible to run 100 minute London Birmingham schedules. *It will affect W&S, possibly putting the out of business. It is not that I don't want a town getting a direct London train. It's just that a good hourly service with decent connexions at Crewe or B'ham would be better for the line, and help everyone travelling at all times. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: welshman on September 07, 2009, 22:52:06 As I understand it, the plan is to extend some of the existing Aberystwyth - B'ham International Services by splitting the trains at BHI and sending the front half on to London. Since there is already a combining and splitting of trains at Machynlleth this would just be more of the same.
Because of the impending installation of ERTMS 158s would have to be used since they are the trainsets being fitted with the equipment. Quite how it would all work if there were delays to the London bit south of BHI is a question. Quite how pleased you'd be with 5 hours or so on a 158 is another question although in fairness they're not bad so long as you have a seat. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: willc on September 08, 2009, 02:11:52 Unfortunately the BBC has completely missed the only new angle to the story, which is that ATW has formally applied to the ORR for permission to run the services.
Quote Running 90 mph DMUs will affect Chiltern's desire to get 100 mph in as many places as possible Chiltern use lots of 75mph 165s, such as the one I rode on the other week from Bicester to Wembley (operating a Snow Hill-London service) and even the 100mph one I rode back on hardly got anywhere near that speed most of the way. You can't just wave a wand and get rid of the 165s. Quote It will affect W&S, possibly putting the out of business. But Mr Opik says he has raised this specific issue with ATW and they offered "timing their own trains not to directly compete with what's there already" so it sounds like they have moved on that question As for business travellers, I doubt there are that many from Aberystwyth to start with, and if anyone does make the journey, they probably factor in an overnight stay in London unless they really want to spend nine hours on trains for little more than six hours in London. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: paul7575 on September 08, 2009, 13:34:47 Also, this 'formal application', (which isn't online yet AFAICS), sounds as if it is little different to the one that appeared on Network Rail's track access pages back in the spring.
Is it to be assumed the earlier application was turned down, because if it wasn't, this is surely just a continuation following amendments? Paul Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 08, 2009, 13:48:56 I have to say that my first thought was "what's new" when I read the story!
Quote Chiltern use lots of 75mph 165s, such as the one I rode on the other week from Bicester to Wembley (operating a Snow Hill-London service) and even the 100mph one I rode back on hardly got anywhere near that speed most of the way. You can't just wave a wand and get rid of the 165s. Yes at the moment Chiltern hardly get near 100 mph, but the Evergreen 3 plans will see as many limits raised to as near 100 as possible. Therefore, having a few 90 mph 158s will eat up a little capacity at certain times of the day. Chiltern timetable 100 mph 168s on the Snow Hill route. I assume some more are on order soon for the Oxford trains, and remember that W&S will probably be gone, with Chiltern operating the route up to Wrexham with 168s. (and the loco sets running to Snow Hill) Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: eightf48544 on September 08, 2009, 14:50:24 As Welshman says another fly in the ointment of these scheme is the need to use ERTMS fitted 168s. For West of Shrewsbury.
Judging by previous signalling new schemes the chances of ERTMS working properly when switched on seems remote, therefore, Arriva will probably need all the 158s with ERTMS to run the service West of Shrewsbury. They've still not got ERTMS working fully between Brussels and Amsterdamn. Having an ERTMS fitted 158 disappearing to London for 4 hours or more doesn't seem practicle. Interesting point shouldn't the system be working by now? It seems to have gone awfully quite. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: willc on September 08, 2009, 16:49:16 What appeared on Network Rail's website and is still on ATW's was a brochure outlining the broad plan and inviting opinions as part of a consultation process - a completely different kettle of fish from a formal ORR track access application document.
ERTMS is in use on some main lines in Switzerland and Italy and has been for a couple of years. According to the local user group, the Cambrian switch-on is apparently expected in October. And lots of jobs the ATW 158s do are away from the Cambrian area and always will be, but since all the ATW 158s are based at Machynlleth depot, they are getting ERTMS fitted as standard. Quote Chiltern timetable 100 mph 168s on the Snow Hill route Really? Well let me assure you I know what a 165 looks like and what I was riding on was a 2x3-car 165 formation to Wembley, with a Clubman on the way back. Quite apart from any that naughtily get to Snow Hill, almost all the Stratford-upon-Avon service is 165-operated, so these are pottering along at 75mph south of Leamington and will continue to do so. The ATW services would be running outside the Chiltern peak periods and will be a lot faster than the 75mph 165s and the slower freights that also operate on the route, so please drop this silly idea that they will in any way interfere with Chiltern. Perhaps Chiltern's 100mph trains are getting in the way of XC's 125mph-capable trains between Banbury and Leamington? Maybe they should be banned from that route. And where have you got this stuff about Chiltern and W&S from? Ie, just for once, instead of giving us your opinion, provide a credible source for your claims. The only context in which Chiltern has ever discussed using loco-hauled stock was to provide extra peak-only capacity between Banbury and London and this idea has still got no further than the drawing board. But you are now telling us that having launched a long-distance service, taking four hours end to end, with Mk3s and a full catering service, they are going to put on underfloor DMUs, with no catering facilities (and presumably firing most of their onboard staff)? A type of train which you claim is unsuitable for the sensitive souls of Worcester to sit in for just over two hours. Although when operated by the saintly Chiltern it's fine for journeys almost that long between London and Birmingham. Sounds like a recipe for making Chiltern and W&S's names dirt in Shropshire, just like Virgin's, while giving Virgin's Wrexham through trains an instant boost and probably making people in Shropshire instantly more amenable to ATW's ideas. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 08, 2009, 17:21:22 Really? Well let me assure you I know what a 165 looks like and what I was riding on was a 2x3-car 165 formation to Wembley, with a Clubman on the way back. Sorry, I'll clarify. I don't doubt you were on a 165. I never stated as much. In the past, the 8.10 from Kidderminster has been formed (or half formed) by 165s. This does not change the fact that Snow Hill services are booked for 168s, and thus are marked in the timetable as "Clubman" trains. As you stopped at Wembley, I expect it was a special match day (?) where perhaps the rolling stock was out of place. Or perhaps they wanted more people seated. But if these guesses are wrong, I apologise in advance. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: matt473 on September 08, 2009, 17:53:14 Apparently W&S will cease to trade from December. I have read various rumours which I will summarise henceforth: Basically W&S are not making a profit, and DB are not happy. Most passengers are travelling to London in the morning and back in the afternoon/evening. Therefore the morning peak W&S service will be run by the loco hauled set. During the off peak time it will run Snow Hill trains, before returning to Wrexham in the evening. The other Wrexham trains (which may be axed) will be operated by 168s, enabling journey time reductions (better acceleration and because higher speed limits apply to 168s). The other rumour is that ALL Wrexham trains will be 168s and the loco hauled sets will be put on Snow Hill trains all day. ALL trains will be branded and operated by Chiltern Railways. Note that the above is an amalgamation of several things I have read on a website I found recently called Rail Forum UK, all of which may change. However, I feel that they are reliable, as the forum seems to be for rail workers - they all seem to be "in the know". There is another forum I am part of which has a member of W&S staff and he states this nothing but rumours. There is also an unwritten rule that unless something is reported as fact do not post it as it can be very distressing to staff for people to say they may lose their jobs whilst rumours quite often are just rumours, especially when the railway is involved. It is also worth remembering that WSMR have not been running for long and are still devloping their market which seems to be working and will leave them to benefit when the competition clause in Virgins franchise runs out enablling them to pick up at Birmingham for London. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: devon_metro on September 08, 2009, 17:58:53 Indeed, i've read something direct from the hands of the MD, Andy Hamilton!
There is prospect of an 1833 London - Wrexham soon. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: willc on September 08, 2009, 18:24:48 Ah, the good old rumour mill...
And would you believe it, most people are going up to London in the morning and back in the evening. I'm sure that never occurred to them when planning the service. Should anyone wish to read Mr Hamilton's post, it's in this thread http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=26365 (http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=26365) I don't dispute most of Chiltern's Birmingham trains are 168s, but there are still several booked 165 services in the timetable and, if I am to believe the rolling stock class numbers at the head of every column in the draft December timetables http://www.chilternrailways.co.uk/news/news-archive/ttconsult-dmr09/ (http://www.chilternrailways.co.uk/news/news-archive/ttconsult-dmr09/) there will continue to be some both on weekdays and weekends, most running in much the same timings as the 168s, which means the present timetable is largely built around 75mph timings. Even if it is speeded up at the end of next year, there will still be lots of 75mph Chiltern services running, at least as far as Leamington en route to Stratford, so berating ATW for proposing 90mph stock is a bit much. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 08, 2009, 19:02:31 I think W&S were hoping for more London to Shropshire "days out" passengers. These clearly havn't materialised and the recent timetable reduction now prohibit such a day out on W&S.
Re: the 1833, this has been on the cards for a while, as Chiltern tweaked their timetable about a year ago to fit it in. However, in December no W&S filled the gaps! I'm glad they are finally putting it in. I think the 8pm-ish train will be removed though. I only posted it because the posters seemed certain, and also seem to be rail staff. EDIT: I have decided to remove the post above lest people interpret rumours as fact. Remember, that Chiltern are getting a loco set this December. Who from? Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: matt473 on September 08, 2009, 20:24:55 The Chiltern loco is not confirmed and may not happen as the growth is passenger numbers predicted that would have led to the need for loco hauled diagrams has not happened because of the recession. There is nothing certain what will happen yet and will not be decided upon for a while yet.
To address another point, WSMR have worked hard to bring services to both Wrexham and Shrewsbury which led to Virgin starting a trial service to Wrexham and ATW with this proposal. These are both commercial services that are not part of the franchise so it can be argued the stock can be better used sticking to franchise requirements or transferred elsewhere. With TOCs wanting to get in on the act then obviously there is a profit to be made from this route. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 08, 2009, 20:41:13 Unfortunately, I can't see the W&S route being successful in the long term.
Network Rail want to electrify to Shrewsbury and then have 2 tph to London Euston via the WCML. This would kill off W&S. A few VT Chester services could be extended to Wrexham to compensate. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: John R on September 08, 2009, 20:48:05 I think any plans to electrify to Shrewshire would extend beyond most people's view of long term.
Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 08, 2009, 21:20:59 I think any plans to electrify to Shrewshire would extend beyond most people's view of long term. Very true. ;D I think they meant post HS2. (when the WCML services to B'ham would be empty unless they were to run further) Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: matt473 on September 08, 2009, 23:17:16 By then Open Acces would have developed with no more of these anti-competition clauses in franchises. I think WSMR and their owners DB potentially could have a very profitable service in the futue considering they already own stock which is usually the main factor preventingopen access companies.
I predict that gradually you will more and more services operated on a commercial basis through Open Access with franchises being like local government tenders that will provide services in the unprofitable areas. This is of course over a very long period of time, possibly post HS2 Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 13, 2009, 23:42:10 From December there will be 2 ATW services from London Marylebone to Newtown.
London Marylebone 13:15 Leamington Spa 14:41 Birmingham International 15:09 Birmingham New Street 15:26 Smethwick Galton Bridge 15:32 Wolverhampton 15:44 Telford 16:01 Wellington Shropshire 16:07 Shrewsbury 16:30 Welshpool 17:02 Newtown 17:18 and London Marylebone 15:15 Leamington Spa 16:45 Birmingham International 17:09 Smethwick Galton Bridge 17:32 Wolverhampton 17:44 Telford 18:01 Wellington Shropshire 18:07 Shrewsbury 18:27 Welshpool 19:02 Newtown 19:18 There will also be one single Newtown to Marylebone service. Newtown 07:33 Welshpool 07:50 Shrewsbury 08:15 Wolverhampton 09:03 Smethwick Galton Bridge 09:16 Birmingham New Street 09:22 Birmingham International 09:35 Leamington Spa 10:07 London Marylebone11:36 (a) Why just to Newtown? (b) Why are the missing a New Street stop in the heart of the rush hour? I thought the whole point of this stupid London service was for there to be an hourly service to the Cambrian Line in the evening rush. (i.e. at 1626, 1726 and 1826) (c) Why don't they use this spare stock to run an hourly Aber - Shrewsbury trains instead? The extra trains could be continued to Crewe to allow for Northbound connexions. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: grahame on September 14, 2009, 03:28:41 From December there will be 2 ATW services from London Marylebone to Newtown. (c) Why don't they use this spare stock to run an hourly Aber - Shrewsbury trains instead? The extra trains could be continued to Crewe to allow for Northbound connexions. Not a lot of winter traffic west of Shrewsbury, and that which IS on offer will wait an extra hour. Not much point running 2 trains at 30% loading instead of one at 60%. Whereas you run a London service and you pick up extra passengers who would not otherwise have been customers of your trains. Do I smell an ORCATs raid? Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: John R on September 14, 2009, 22:02:24 If these timings are correct then I don't think it stands a chance of being given the go ahead. For one thing, none of the services serve Machynlleth and Aberystwyth, and moreover an 0815 departure from Shrewsbury wil clearly abstract revenue from the W&S service leaving 8 minutes earlier, both through ORCATS allocation of revenue and by sale of operator specific tickets.
It's a long held asparation of the WAG to deliver an hourly service on the Cambrian. If I understand it correctly many services are currently comprised of 2 units east of Machynlleth (as they divide there for Aber and the Coast Line), so it can't be beyond the wit of man to work out an operation which splits these into two separate hourly services. I suspect when the ETRMS work is complete it will happen. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 14, 2009, 22:09:04 The timetable is being finalised and signed this week, so I'll keep my fingers crossed that this HOPELESS, pathetic excuse of a service is binned for good!
The fact that it may put W&S out of business even quicker is also a reason to stop Arriva. :'( If they have spare units, then attach them to some of the Aber 2 car trains which are often bursting from Aber! Or some 6 car trains in the peaks in and out of B'ham! Or give them to FGW! Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Mookiemoo on September 14, 2009, 22:11:10 The timetable is being finalised and signed this week, so I'll keep my fingers crossed that this HOPELESS, pathetic excuse of a service is binned for good! The fact that it may put W&S out of business even quicker is also a reason to stop Arriva. :'( If they have spare units, then attach them to some of the Aber 2 car trains which are often bursting from Aber! Or some 6 car trains in the peaks in and out of B'ham! Or give them to FGW! Or stick them on the MArches - some of the late afternoon services - they are not Standing but they are every seat full and some sitting in the vestibules! Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: paul7575 on September 14, 2009, 22:41:30 If these timings are correct then I don't think it stands a chance of being given the go ahead. For one thing, none of the services serve Machynlleth and Aberystwyth, and moreover an 0815 departure from Shrewsbury wil clearly abstract revenue from the W&S service leaving 8 minutes earlier, both through ORCATS allocation of revenue and by sale of operator specific tickets. The 0815 is 'set down only' at Shrewsbury according to the ORR's version of the track access agreement. http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/upload/pdf/s22-atw-38sa-appfrm.pdf (http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/upload/pdf/s22-atw-38sa-appfrm.pdf) Worth a read if anyone is just guessing about the service... Paul Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: willc on September 14, 2009, 23:53:55 Yes, well i can think who might be guessing, due to a professed aversion to reading the detailed documents such as the application Paul has provided the link to.
Reading the form shows that by jumping the gun and putting the December timetable online ahead of it being formally signed off, XC are missing out a series of stops in Wales that are yet to be formally approved by Network Rail (in particular the paths west of Newtown), hence are not entered on the timetable system yet - never mind that if the ORR turns ATW down, then the whole thing is academic anyway. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 15, 2009, 00:19:18 Yes, well i can think who might be guessing, due to a professed aversion to reading the detailed documents such as the application Paul has provided the link to. Reading the form shows that by jumping the gun and putting the December timetable online ahead of it being formally signed off, XC are missing out a series of stops in Wales that are yet to be formally approved by Network Rail (in particular the paths west of Newtown), hence are not entered on the timetable system yet - never mind that if the ORR turns ATW down, then the whole thing is academic anyway. It seems mad to put the trains into the Journey Planner when they have yet to be agreed. People could be reserving seats on these trains as we speak! >:( Please note that I have posted twice on the forum today stating that I know the times are yet to be finalised. What you say certainly makes sense of the "missing" sections of the train route. And how was I meant to read the document - Paul has only just put the link up. I'm sorry if putting these train times up upsets you. I just thought that in light of this thread, and other discussion on the forum, the timetable would be of interest to those who had participated in said discussions! Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: willc on September 15, 2009, 00:52:26 It doesn't upset me, it's just that if XC had not been so stupid as to make this stuff accessible to the public when the timetable process is not complete, so some information is missing or still subject to amendment, then you wouldn't be posting incomplete information as though it is fact, never mind that the ORR has yet to make a formal decision on the entire proposal. These are simply reserved paths in the timetable, should the ATW service ever start, nothing more.
Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 15, 2009, 00:55:12 But I got the info from LM's website not XC. :P ;D ;D :D These trains are reservable on TrainLine, XC and MixingDeck websites! :o :o ???
For the love of Pete what the hell is going on! >:( What will they do if people reserve? Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: willc on September 15, 2009, 09:43:53 What's going on is that someone, somewhere - not, it should be, said FGW or at National Rail - has been very silly.
There is a reason there is a supposed agreed deadline for signing off the timetable - so that only the right information gets released. Even when the complete timetable is released, the only bits that should be accessible by the public are the West Midlands-Welsh Coast legs of those services - unless and until the ORR signs off on London. To give but one recent example, W&S had protected paths written into the timetable for months before it began to run, since the December 2007 timetable change, I think. They were only activated in journey planners three weeks before services began, when the launch date was announced. The same should happen here. I expect questions will be being asked. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 15, 2009, 16:46:54 To give but one recent example, W&S had protected paths written into the timetable for months before it began to run, since the December 2007 timetable change, I think. It was, Chiltern retimed some trains to fit in the 1833. It, however, never appeared...until now - about a year later! ::) Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: devon_metro on September 15, 2009, 16:52:25 As usual you seem to be complaining when you don't have a worthwhile explanation why not?
The reason the 1833 service could not be implemented more recently was because class 67s were not permitted to travel at the higher permitted Multiple Unit speeds that (the oh so amazing) Chiltern can. This work is expected to be complete in October and as such the 1833 can run. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 15, 2009, 19:17:01 I'm not "complaining", just picking out a discrepancy that confused me for a while! The message from Chiltern's MD sounded as if the W&S service would be starting with the new timetable.
So have they finally cleared those speed restrictions which force non HST/168s to run about 15 mph slower? Re: the timetable. I'm tempted to buy a ticket and reserve a seat on an Arriva service from B'ham Int to Leamington, and see what they do when the service is axed! ;D Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: IndustryInsider on September 15, 2009, 19:42:49 So have they finally cleared those speed restrictions which force non HST/168s to run about 15 mph slower? A lot more than that in certain locations. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: willc on September 15, 2009, 23:02:24 To give but one recent example, W&S had protected paths written into the timetable for months before it began to run, since the December 2007 timetable change, I think. It was, Chiltern retimed some trains to fit in the 1833. It, however, never appeared...until now - about a year later! ::) I think you misunderstood my point. I am talking about the months before W&S was operating. All their paths were agreed, but were not searchable using the public journey planners, for the very good reason that the trains were not actually running. Quite apart from the fact that the December timetables shouldn't be accessible until they are finalised, to avoid confusion such as this case, the only bits of the ATW services that should be showing even when the full timetable is signed off next week are the legs west of Birmingham - unless and until the ORR makes its decision on the London operation. Only if these are approved should those Leamington and Marylebone timings be made available in journey planners. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 15, 2009, 23:20:35 What about the void West of Newtown. Is that a blipper or is it, as Graham suggests, lack of winter custom from West Wales.
Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: willc on September 15, 2009, 23:50:27 If you take a look at the ATW application form to the ORR, the link is in Paul's post yesterday, and scroll down, the seventh and eighth pages give the yet-to-be-signed off Aberystwyth times in red figures in a table on one page and there's a full list of the proposed calling points, including everywhere west of Newtown, on the next, along with set down only and pick up only stops. You certainly wouldn't be stopping short of Aberystwyth, as the students there are key to the line's economics outside the holiday season.
Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Btline on September 16, 2009, 00:10:19 A few questions:
*Why no Smethwick GB calls Northbound? *Why are Leamington calls not set down/ pick up? (like W&S do at Banbury to prevent revenue extraction from Chiltern) *When are ATW going to refurb their 158s? Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: John R on March 01, 2010, 19:00:33 The Rail Regulator has turned down ATW's proposed service, on the grounds of revenue abstraction. A highly (in)appropriate day to announce it (or at least for the press to pick up on it), though personally I'm pleased, as it appeared a very obvious tactic to put W&S out of business.
Hopefully now ATW will work with W&S on sensible connection times, some reasonable through fares, and help both routes improve their passenger numbers. But probably not. >:( Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: autotank on March 01, 2010, 20:08:54 This I think is good news - ATW should instead be focusing on increading the frequency of services on the Cambrian line. It is widely agreed that W&S are one of the best train operators around and if this decision improves their chances of survival then its good news.
As mentioned before there is cros platform interchange at Birmingham International to fast London services every 20 minutes at the moment - I think that is good enough. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: JayMac on March 01, 2010, 20:10:22 Hopefully now ATW will work with W&S on sensible connection times, some reasonable through fares, and help both routes improve their passenger numbers. But probably not. >:( Bearing in mind the distance I think there are already sensible connnection times and reasonable through fares to London. From Aberystwyth 4^ hours and ^66 return from 0730 onwards seems pretty reasonable to me. Advance fares also available from ^10. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: IndustryInsider on March 01, 2010, 22:40:28 I agree. On the balance, a good decision in my opinion.
Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: paul7575 on March 02, 2010, 10:25:55 What is interesting about the ORR's decision letter is that it reviews all the presumed operational problems and comes to the conclusion that the service could be run OK.
"Slots were also identified between Coventry and Marylebone, both in the existing timetable and the draft Evergreen 3 timetable." "...and our view is that performance considerations on their own, should not present any significant barrier to our approval of the agreement." http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/upload/pdf/s22-atw-38sa-decision-letter.pdf (http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/upload/pdf/s22-atw-38sa-decision-letter.pdf) The reasons for turning it down are all to do with revenue abstraction. Paul Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: willc on March 02, 2010, 22:33:09 And because the ORR didn't believe it would generate as much new to rail revenue as ATW were suggesting.
Quote Hopefully now ATW will work with W&S on sensible connection times, some reasonable through fares, and help both routes improve their passenger numbers. But probably not. Easy to say, not easy to achieve, because of the standard patterns of services operated by ATW and LM between Shrewsbury and Wolverhampton and the serious capacity constraints between Shrewsbury and Wrexham, due to the handful of signal sections, and the problems W&S faces getting through the West Midlands, which effectively dictate the slots W&S services run in and make trying to get slick Cambrian connections at Shrewsbury nigh on impossible. The Cambrian and Shrewsbury-Telford-Wolverhampton timetable has been constructed for decades around making connections with London services to and from Euston, whether at Shrewsbury when InterCity ran there, Wolverhampton or Birmingham. No-one's going to tear that up for the sake of connecting with four trains a day each way, one of which actually leaves Shrewsbury more than an hour before the first service from Aberystwyth arrives. And W&S's business plan presumably did not envisage much, if any, revenue from Mid Wales and Aberystwyth because of these timetabling issues. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: John R on March 03, 2010, 20:49:41 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/mid/8547193.stm
A politician calls for full devolvement of transport powers in Wales after the rejection of the Aberystwyth to London service. Now, let me think for a moment, which bit of the journey would be in addition to the existing service? That's right, Birmingham to London. I'm not sure why she thinks devolved powers would extend that far into England. Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: welshman on March 18, 2010, 18:56:36 But keep watching this space.
According to my newspaper yesterday Quote Arriva...has received a ^1.2bn takeover bid from Deutsche Bahn, the German state-run transport group, just weeks after ending merger talks with French rail operator SNCF. What price Aberystwyth to Marylebone change at Shrewsbury for the W & S service? Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Adrian the Rock on March 18, 2010, 21:58:23 But keep watching this space. According to my newspaper yesterday Quote Arriva...has received a ^1.2bn takeover bid from Deutsche Bahn, the German state-run transport group, just weeks after ending merger talks with French rail operator SNCF. What price Aberystwyth to Marylebone change at Shrewsbury for the W & S service? More to the point, if DB buy Arriva there would no longer be a conflict of interest between WS&MR and ATW Marylebone services. When DB got both Chiltern and WS&MR they rapidly withdrew Chiltern's objections to WSMR stopping at Leamington or carrying London-Banbury passengers, indeed they now see WS&MR as a useful addition to the Chiltern services by providing faster London-Banbury/Leamington trains. With ATW in the fold they could now add Marylebone - Aberystwyth services into the mix, probably timed so they roughly alternated with the Wrexham ones... Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: Timmer on March 18, 2010, 22:07:11 If DB do get their hands on Arriva it will be interesting to see what changes if any come about to the way XC is currently being run.
Title: Re: Aberystwyth-London route proposed Post by: John R on March 18, 2010, 22:14:05 Pre DB, Chiltern and W&S were still related companies, so Chiltern have never objected to W&S's operations. If they had, it is unlikely that W&S would have got off the ground and been given permission for the paths into Marylebone.
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