Great Western Coffee Shop

I have posted the date of the general election (4th July 2024 for anyone who's been asleep for over 18 hours) on the forum / in "Who's who on Western Railways" as we will see changes in some of our members of parliament - with some riding off into the sunset by choice, and in all likelihood some others leaving when they wished to continue.  A big "thank you" - should they happen to read this - to all the MPs who have supported rail, public transport improvements, etc, over pervious years.  And, wider and more muted for the audience and attention given and politeness to them where they have been less inclined to help.

Who's retiring?  Have they been helpful?  How do your local constituencies changes?


What can we expect to see / what can we look forward to with the next crew, whether they are a change at the top or just an update?

Mid Cornwall Metro.
I 'think' was a joint scheme from the County Council, supported by local M.P's.
As was the upgrading to permit a half hourly service.

Again, I think it was.  This from memory.

Cornwall Council seem to be very transport friendly.

As for political changes upcoming, we will just have to wait and see.

Bristol should be interesting.

Not only is there a fair chance that Carla Denyer will get elected in Bristol Central (every single ward elected Green councilors), but it seems the Labour councilor for Horfield was not eligible for election (she's a teacher and thus a full-time BCC employee), so there will likely be a by-election. If the Greens win, that brings them one seat short of an absolute majority on Bristol City Council.

That should bode well for rail, and particularly the Severn Beach line, but I suppose it depends on how well they work together with WECA.

I'm in a boundary changed constituency. Formerly Somerton & Frome, it is now Glastonbury & Somerton. This constitutency takes the towns of Glastonbury and Street from the former Wells constituency, renamed, with a new boundary, Wells & Mendip Hills.

Four candidates for Glastonbury & Somerset confirmed so far. Jon Cousins (Grn), Sarah Dyke (LD), Hal Hooberman (Lab), Faye Purbrick (Con).

Frome is moved to a new constituency called Frome & East Somerset, taking parts of Jacob Ress Mogg's North East Somerset constituency, renamed, with a new boundary, North East Somerset & Hanham.

My current MP Sarah Dyke (LD - Somerton & Frome) is standing in the new Glastonbury & Somerton constituency. She became MP in a byelection in July 2023 following the resignation of the Conservative, David Warburton, who stood down following allegations of sexual harassment, financial impropriety and Class A drug use. Sarah took the seat from the Conservatives with a 29% swing, overturning a 19,000 majority.

I've had correspondence with Sarah Dyke, both when she was my local authority councillor, and as MP. And have met her once. Approachable and competent. Her main opponent in the general election will be Faye Purbrick (Con).

I've just ordered my garden poster board.

Nothing is likely to make me vote for a party less than seeing loads of those silly things all over the place! ;)

Glad to hear you're voting on the policies II. :P

I'm having to get a poster from one the main parties. No OMRLP candidate is standing in my constituency.

There's still time for you to put yourself forward.  ;D

I'm sure they are not choosy!

There's a certain temptation, isn't there?   https://www.loonyparty.com/get-involved/stand-for-the-offical-loony-party/

You have to put up your own deposit I think....

Yes, £500, but you only have to get 5% (or more) of the votes cast to get it back  :D ... and I'll have to work out how many weeks pension that it.    Imagine the power of an election address to every address in the constituency coverage such loony idea which actually could work!

EDIT to note - I have gone off on a Lighter Side silly on this at http://www.passenger.chat/28744

In my local constituency, North Somerset, Dr Liam Fox is our MP.  He is a strong supporter of the railways, consistently involved in the campaign to re-open the Portishead Line.

I met him once, in 2010, when he cut the ribbon at the opening of the Strawberry Line cafe at Yatton Station.  He was Secretary of State for Defence at that time, during the Iraq war, which meant there were also two men in suits there, with interesting bulges under their arms - clearly his bodyguard. ;D

North Somerset is a fairly safe Conservative seat - so I have no doubt that Liam will be re-elected.

Electoral Calculus is not so sure.  And a week is a long time in politics and we have six to go.

Dr Liam Fox was previously a GP in Nailsea; he is well regarded locally as a very good constituency MP.

I'll bet you a tenner!  ;D

The Rail Minister is off....not standing again.

What is the closing date for nominations for candidates? I wonder how many more are going to jump ship before.

I see in the press that Jacob Rees-Mogg's predecessor as MP is going to stand against him, with apparently a good chance. A Portillo moment on election night?

6th or 7th June, depending on whether or not the poll day is included in the count?

If the Conservatives opinion polling doesn't improve significantly there could well be a lot of Portillo moments.

Will we see a new TV series Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg's Great British Sedan Chair Journeys and its presenters selection of colourful top hats and frock coats?

June 7th closing date for candidates nominations

Although, some candidates for a Portillo moment are wisely jumping ship before such a fate. Michael Gove being the latest high profile tory to say he won't be standing again.

My bets for the results to watch for a 'moment' will be Jeremy Hunt, Jacob Rees Mogg and Penny Mordaunt. That's if they don't join the mass exodus too.

Well, Michael Gove will be no great loss - that's purely my personal opinion, not the official view of the Coffee Shop forum.  ::)

John Redwood has just announced he's not standing again in Wokingham. I guess his local party knew that was likely and have someone new ready, otherwise it would be a nasty trick on them.

Berkshire has been given an extra constituency (Earley and Woodley), which sits between Reading and Wokingham. With a lot of swapping of bits here and there, that pushes Reading East across to become Central, while West gets some Mid Berkshire added on to what's left. Wokingham becomes pretty much the Unitary District. On the basis of previous votes, and especially the council elections, the three parties are all possible winners, depending on who's reading the runes. Now, does not facing Redwood help Labour or Lib Dems more?

To be fair, Sir John Redwood MP is age 72: I can understand that he doesn't want to go through all that election stuff yet again.  ::)

An unprecedented exodus of MP’s.  Will there be a Tory party left at the end of it all?

A lot of people asked the same question in 1997.

Didn't more MPs (of all parties) step down in 2010?

There's the number who jump (not standing again) ... then you add to that the number who stood and were pushed by the voters.  Not sure where you would find the historic time series stats for this, but I expect some member will know.

Currently 117 standing down before the 2024 election. It was 149 prior to the 2010 election.

The 2010 figure was somewhat inflated by the number of MPs quitting, being deselected, or being imprisoned after being caught with their snouts in the trough with their expenses claims.

I stand corrected. I should have referred to him as Sir Liam Fox MP, as his knighthood overrides his doctorate in terms of titles.  ::)

Do we have any MPs at the moment? I thought Parliament is dissolved pending an election.

Yes, I should have said Tory MP’s, which we’d been discussing in the previous few replies.

So did I, and I double wondered when I saw the letters "MP" on Facebook this morning on a lady who has represented us.  It appears that the formal disollusion date is 30th so that are still MPs until then, although they are not meeting because of the spring bank holiday.

They are MPs until dissolution on Thursday....then only candidates if selected/paid deposit or prospective candidates if not.

They won't meet again either, as Parliament was prorogued late on Friday

And those candidates who do get elected on July 4th will have summer recess to look forward to soon afterwards...

Which, however, will be an opportunity for the good re-elected ones to do a great deal such as get to know their new constituency (many are greatly changed), for those new to parliament to establish local teams and find flats in London, for those getting government appointments to learn into their briefs, as well as holidays, adjusting their "day job", and so forth.

Makes it sound as though there is going to be a sudden influx of people wanting to serve the public (as opposed to themselves).

You were quoting me, and perhaps I did.   Taking the first element, there will be a sudden influx of people; the five year (ish) cycle means that new MPs arrive in floods with just drips in between.   Why do they want to be there, though? - multiple reasons, each of them probably has a different balance between those reasons, and in any case they need to take broadly similar actions to forward their agenda.   Be it their personal furtherment, their party, their area, their country, their principles, their employer in another job, their family expectations, their enjoyment ...

Theresa May constituency has parachuted in an out of townie Dr Tania Mathias.

She ousted Liberal Democrat Vince Cable in the 2015 General Election when was elected as the MP for Twickenham, however Vince Cable got his own back in the snap 2017 general election Mathias was defeated by almost 10,000 votes.

Both the Labour and Lib Dem candidates are locals who live in the constituency

And so ... the election is tomorrow!

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/greengov.jpg)

Taking mid-projection, it looks likely we will have a Labour Govemment, but with 2 out of every 3 of their MPs being new so that will be an interesting learning curve.   And if the Liberal Democrats do as predicted, 6 out of every 7 will be new to parliament.    So  expect things will either take time to settle, or a lead team will ram lots of stuff through before their new troops have time to query it.

I would not like to bet on the Chippenham, the Melksham and Devizes, or the Wiltshire South West seats.

I have a bet with grahame that, here in North Somerset, Sir Liam Fox (Con) will be re-elected - but with a much smaller majority than he's become used to.  ::)

CfN.  ;)

East Wiltshire is not a safe seat either. 

I cannot see the Conservatives going as low as 22 seats, if they did it could be almost oblivion the internal fighting will be bad loosing power but it would be brutal with a seat count below 120.

We could find ourselves with a minority Government that will rely on other parties to back the agenda (not a coalition)

Could we see a Harold Wilson 1974 event again?

Gentlemen and Ladies ... get out there today and VOTE!

Many of us in the South West are now in marginal constituencies and can make a huge difference.

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/pstncan.jpg)

"Sporting" bet only.   I'm not looking to forecast my own seat let alone one somewhere west of me.  But I would forecast that the dominant sea of blue that's been on the map for the last decade will be more colourful by this time tomorrow.    We will be seeing red and orange and blue ... maybe green and aqua too.

Obligatory photo.

(https://i.postimg.cc/rFs17BhF/IMG-20240704-124913.jpg)

I did get out there today and VOTE!  ;D

Timings were purely coincidental, but it turned out to be a rather busy lunch hour for me.  I drove to my polling station in Nailsea and parked outside the adjoining pub.  Walking into the polling station, I saw Sir Liam Fox (Con), so I approached him, we shook hands and exchanged pleasantries.

Having cast my vote, I then thought it would perhaps be tactful to buy a pint in the pub where I'd parked.  On entering the pub, there were Sadik Al-Hassan (Lab) and his family, having lunch.  We exchanged pleasantries.

What I found surprising, though, was that with the whole of the North Somerset constituency to cover, both of those candidates had chosen Nailsea for lunchtime.

I will discover tomorrow what effect my vote had on the outcome.

Meanwhile, I would like to endorse grahame's exhortation to please, get out there and VOTE !

 ;)

My bet with grahame could be at risk: see https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/general-election-2024-could-see-9383795

 ::)

Where Finn leads others follow. Here's Glastonbury & Somerton constituency LibDem candidate Sarah Dyke stopping off in Templecombe on her tour of polling stations.

(https://i.postimg.cc/kG9YSTJV/FB-IMG-1720123227358.jpg)

Been a quiet day in the Coffee Shop - perhaps because it's Independence Day?   Or, rather, Election Day.  I will probably be up all night and perhaps odd posts her.  I do remember expectation that Neil Kinnock would beat John Major in - was it - around 1996 but that didn't happen.  So tonight's expectation many not come about. Let's see.

I'll probably be around for a while, too ...  ;)

I was amazed to meet both our Conservative and Labour candidates here in Nailsea at lunch time, when they have the whole of North Somerset to cover.

Neil Kinnock, good politician though he was, was on a loser: he was up against Margaret Thatcher and John Major.  ::)

From the BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2503exwrwlo)

I shall see the BBC’s exit poll in just under 15 minutes time, then turn in for the night and resume early tomorrow morning.

I'll be following the results on the BBC until my eyelids get too heavy. Hoping to see a few Portillo moments. Whilst the result may be a foregone conclusion there are still many variables to make for an interesting watch. Which big names will be given the order of the boot? How big a majority will there be. How will the smaller parties fair?

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/greengov.jpg)


Exit poll suggets 410 labour, cons 131, libs 61, reform 13, green 2, SNp 10, PC 4

No great surprise from the exit poll. Sadly we can expect a lot of noise from the party that is predicted to win 13 seats.

And maybe 25% of the national vote.....

The exit poll was so definite and I fell asleep until just now.  Not sure if anyone else has a cup of coffee in front of them. Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage in, Grant Shapps out.   Doulas Alexander back.   Some interesting speeches.

At 4.40am Rishi Sunak concedes to Sir Kier Starmer.

Congratulations to Sarah Dyke, LibDem in my constituency, Glastonbury & Somerton.

I note grahame, that Melksham & Devives has gone to the LibDems too.

Congrats to Andrew Murrison, holding Wiltshire South West (Trowbridge, Westbury, Dilton Marsh, Warmister) for the Conservatives and to Brian Mathew for his election for Melksham and Devizes (and Bradford-on-Avon and Avoncliff) , and to Sarah Gibson for taking the Chippenham Seat.
 
Wera Hobhouse has held Bath, and Dan Norris won in Somerset North East (Freshford and Keynsham). A flood of Lib Dem gains in Somerset.  Awaiting Salisbury, Frome [update LD], and East Wiltshire. Swindon North and South are now both Labour.

From the BBC - most arrogant speech - Ian Duncan Smith.  Most appropriate - Rishi Sunak and perhaps Penny Mourdant.  Impressed by speech from Jeremy Corbyn; there are a number who I may disagree with but for whom I have huge respect and admiration.

North Somerset - Labour Gain, with a majority of just 639.

I trust you're glad you didn't bet actual money? Commiserations.

I agree about IDS. Odious. Robert Buckland in Swindon was a great concession speech. Real anger and invective directed at his own party's direction in the last few years.

We have just seen Rishi Sunak ... FLYING ... out of TEESIDE AIRPORT and  bet he didn't take the train there!

Some people gone who know something or have done something with the railways:
Mark Harper out by 300 votes
Grant Shapps out by 3,800 votes
Chris Loder out by 7,000 votes

I noted in Grant Shapp's losers speech he paid great tribute to the British Armed Forces and I commend him for that.  It was (I suspect) edited - a long speech, but I heard him say nothing about the people (management and operational staff) who run our public transport.

Half the station condemned. So, in better condition overall than the parliamentary Conservative Party. :P

My personal take from the night:

Hearing defeated Tories being so apologetic and honest. Almost human. Just a shame it took them 14 years and a good thumping to reach such an epiphany.

Truly amazing to see the real people (on all sides) from the admirable people who show a real humanity to the obnoxious (in both success and in defeat)

There will be a lot of blood on the Tory carpet over the coming weeks / months as they work though how to get them selves out of this defeat 

We can now see the colour of the picture right across the South West and South Wales - as at 07:00

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/seats0700.jpg)

Seeing him sitting on the Opposition benches with the Tories, Ulster Unionists and Reform will be a treat indeed!

Liberal Democrats also took South Cotswolds from the Conservatives.   The constituency covers part of north Wiltshire including Malmesbury and villages north west of Swindon and Royal Wootton Bassett.

To add
Ann-Marie Trevelyan out by 5,000 votes

Comments from North Somerset:

Voter turnout was 72% - so a reasonable representation of the constituency.

Liam Fox's share of the votes dropped by 19% from 2019: Labour's share increased by 10% and Reform UK's share 'increased' by 10% (they didn't have a candidate in 2019).

So, it seems that many of those 'lost' Conservative votes went to Labour and Reform UK - not to the Liberal Democrats, whose share fell by 3%.

It was a close run thing, though: Labour only won by 639 votes.

I owe grahame a pint.  :)

A good turnout in the face of a national average of 60%.

The West Dorset turnout was 70.1% and I was surprised to Chris Loder beaten by such a large margin.
It does mirror the local elections where the LD took over Dorset Council and the party campaigned very hard in the area. I only saw two Tory posters but many LD ones.

They actually won 5 seats, and 14% of the national vote.  :-X

Sir Keir Starmer has announced his new Secretary of State for Transport.

From the BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0veg88g7jyo):

Along with half the Government as they won't all fit on the Government benches, especially at PMQs  ;D ;D

Also,
The dissolution honours list appears to have been released by Sunak prior to the polls closing, according to the Independent, via MSN (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/theresa-may-given-peerage-and-therese-coffey-gets-damehood-in-surprise-dissolution-honours-list/ar-BB1pqBfh?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=1939d94515f64c37a7b2e4152d1d59fb&ei=188)

In order to help me remember what's been promised and who's who, I have grabbed the Labour Party manifesto summary and new cabinet mug shots and posted them at http://grahamellis.uk/blog1282.html

Here for those with a transport interest is the transport panel:

(http://www.wellho.net/pix/lpm11.jpg)

GBR to be in the King's Speech on 17th July.  So important and I have split that off to a separate thread
http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=28882.0

The Times reported that turnout in North Somerset was 76.3 %...the highest in the country !

Was the driving force behind that, a desire to see Sir Liam Fox turfed out ?

North Somerset has had an increasingly elderly demographic for some time, much more likely to vote.

Excuse me!  I'm only 65!   ;D

TG has obviously not seen the huge influx of under 50s into Portishead Marina, more than doubling the population of the town in the last 10 years. ......

A few days after, and we held a hustings "wash up" meeting here in Melksham and Devizes on Friday evening.

We are not setting up a formal constituency-wide environment and climate group.  In the region, we have the Wiltshire Climate Alliance, and the Melksham Area we have the Melksham Environment Group - we don't need another level of group.    But we are leaving our team email address open so that we can keep in touch and co-ordinate where appropriate.t

Come the next few days, for the first time in one hundred years, the town of Devizes in Wiltshire will be represented in parliament by a member who is not a member of the Conservative party.    Until our hustings, I was a floating voter; I had misgivings concerning all options I was being offered.   But some of the candidates rose in my estimation as people as well as with the policies, and rather sadly others fell and made my decision much easier - no secret that I ended up supporting the eventual winner - Brian Mathew for the Lib Dems.  Had Claire Perry or Andrew Murrison been on my ballot, the choice would have probably been much less easy - both are people I have worked with in the past and I have found them having qualities that set them apart. Andrew remains MP for South West Wiltshire, and I look forward to working transport stuff with him and with WWRUG.