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All across the Great Western territory => Across the West => Topic started by: TaplowGreen on January 04, 2024, 20:47:38



Title: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: TaplowGreen on January 04, 2024, 20:47:38
No-one can hold GWR responsible for extreme weather but communication is 100% within their remit.

There was a severe weather warning for rain from the Met office covering the whole of the region, indeed the whole of Southern England (later expanding to the Midlands and East) specifically citing travel problems, valid from midday today until 0300 Friday, issued well in advance - there was torrential rain in Cornwall early this morning.

This also against the background of the issues caused by Storm Henk.

Despite this, there was nothing from GWR in terms of cautioning against travel unless absolutely necessary until after midday today, and then only initially on Twitter.

At one point this evening there were 11 different line updates listed on Journeycheck - I don't think I have ever seen that many before - one due to a suicide which obviously is a different issue altogether, but others announcing the closure or virtual closure of entire lines and decimation of services with few or no alternatives on offer.

Judging by reports, communication from GWR for those stranded at stations tonight is equally hopeless.

Knowing the almost certain severity of the weather and that disruption was almost inevitable, why, I wonder, did GWR not put out a warning to travel only if absolutely necessary first thing this morning, to coincide with the Met Office message and other weather forecasts?


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: BBM on January 04, 2024, 21:03:13
There's something going on in the Pangbourne/Goring area, presumably the fatality incident - 1C90 1703 PAD-PNZ has been stuck there for 3 hours now.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: nickswift99 on January 04, 2024, 21:04:58
GWR have now advised passengers not to travel and to return to their origin.

There are local rumours in Pangbourne that the incident near Goring is related another significant incident in the local area and there has been a significant police presence.

The combination of weather and this event has, unfortunately, had a catastrophic impact on services.

However, I agree that communications have been very poor and now lots of passengers will be stranded, many on stations that are not staffed.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: eightonedee on January 04, 2024, 21:17:29
Quote
There's something going on in the Pangbourne/Goring area, presumably the fatality incident - 1C90 1703 PAD» -PNZ has been stuck there for 3 hours now.

This is shown on Journey Check as "terminated at Reading......due to flooding", but is apparently a Hants & Berks routed service that should not be going via Goring & Streatley. It is however still Open Train Times as halted at signal 805 just east of Goring.....


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: BBM on January 04, 2024, 21:21:04
Quote
There's something going on in the Pangbourne/Goring area, presumably the fatality incident - 1C90 1703 PAD» -PNZ has been stuck there for 3 hours now.

This is shown on Journey Check as "terminated at Reading......due to flooding", but is apparently a Hants & Berks routed service that should not be going via Goring & Streatley. It is however still Open Train Times as halted at signal 805 just east of Goring.....

A minute or two ago I saw this from someone stuck on that train:

https://twitter.com/SaraRoseAllen/status/1743018485033164828 (https://twitter.com/SaraRoseAllen/status/1743018485033164828)

Quote
@GWRHelp I'm on the static train that had the fatality at Pangbourne. Can I do a public shoutout for the amazing staff on this train who are doing all they can for us, and remaining positive in a clearly distressing situation. Please pass on my huge admiration of them.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Timmer on January 04, 2024, 21:32:52
11 different line updates merged into one:

Quote
Cancellations to services on all routes
Due to heavy rain flooding the railway all lines are disrupted.
Train services running across the whole Great Western Railway network will be cancelled. Disruption is expected until the end of the day.
Customer Advice
We apologise for the disruption to your journey today.

We are currently experiencing significant disruption on the network and customers are advised NOT TO TRAVEL.

Flooding has closed several routes and a person has been hit by a train near Reading.

Disruption is expected until the end of the day and you may not be able to complete your journey. If possible, please return in your direction of travel and make alternative arrangements. Please keep receipts for future reimbursement.

GWR and Elizabeth Line services will continue to operate between Paddington and Reading.

Customers should check before travelling in the morning as we expect further disruption to services from the severe weather forecast overnight.

Tickets for travel today will be valid tomorrow.

95 cancellations currently listed.

Earlier in the evening you could witness the service completely unraveling by various station departure boards showing more and more services down as DELAYED followed by CANCELLED and now they are blank. The Paddington departure board just showing Heathrow Express services.

It has to be said the rainfall this afternoon and evening over Southern England was pretty exceptional in terms of intensity over a wide area and longevity. This coming on top of many days of rain previously.

To be fair to GWR, it was only in the morning that the Met Office upgraded yesterday’s yellow warning for rainfall to another level within the scope of a yellow warning. Based on this, I don't think GWR could have issued their advice regards travelling earlier or starting your journey much earlier than lunchtime.

On a separate but related note, it’s debatable whether it should have been an Amber weather warning given the amount of rain having fallen previously.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: TaplowGreen on January 04, 2024, 21:43:03
Now saying no onward travel beyond Reading

https://twitter.com/GWRHelp/status/1743019952628539621?t=2pJ4pYsUAvidGnXQXhhwQg&s=19


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: eightonedee on January 04, 2024, 21:58:14
There's a more helpful post on National Rail as follows - "The emergency services are dealing with an incident between Didcot Parkway and Reading. Whilst they carry out their work, all lines are currently closed. As a result, trains may be cancelled, delayed by up to 90 minutes or revised.

Disruption is expected until the end of the day."

I appreciate that there's a lot going on this evening, but surely whatever is happening here merits a separate mention on the GWR Line Update section?


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Timmer on January 04, 2024, 22:16:24
Things aren’t going well on SWR either:

Quote
Cancellations to services on all routes

Due to forecast severe weather:

What's Going On:
Train services running across the whole South Western Railway network may be cancelled, delayed or revised. Disruption is expected until the end of the day.

What We're Doing About It:
Extreme rainfall is currently causing disruption to train services in the South of England and we expect this to continue until the at least the end of the day. If you are travelling tomorrow (05 January) we would advise you to check before you travel as we expect that our services may be impacted by the disruption this evening.

The following changes to our train services will apply this evening:
Waterloo to Portsmouth via Eastleigh services are cancelled in both directions
Waterloo to Bournemouth / Weymouth services will start and end its journey at Southampton Central
Waterloo to Exeter St David's services will start and end its journey at Salisbury
Southampton to Portsmouth via Netley services are cancelled in both directions
Salisbury to Southampton via Romsey services are cancelled in both directions
Guildford to Farnham services are cancelled in both directions
Ascot to Aldershot services are cancelled in both directions
All Island line services are cancelled

If you are travelling to stations West and South of Basingstoke and have not yet started your journey, we advise you not to travel. Tickets dated for today (04 January) on SWR services will be valid for travel tomorrow on SWR services only (05 January).

And now this:

Quote
Cancellations to services between Winchester and Micheldever

Due to a landslip between Winchester and Micheldever all lines are blocked.

What's Going On:
Train services running through these stations may be cancelled, delayed or revised. Disruption is expected until the end of the day.

What We're Doing About It:
We have been informed that there is a landslip between Winchester and Micheldever. This means that all lines are currently blocked.





Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: TaplowGreen on January 04, 2024, 22:16:41
There's a more helpful post on National Rail as follows - "The emergency services are dealing with an incident between Didcot Parkway and Reading. Whilst they carry out their work, all lines are currently closed. As a result, trains may be cancelled, delayed by up to 90 minutes or revised.

Disruption is expected until the end of the day."

I appreciate that there's a lot going on this evening, but surely whatever is happening here merits a separate mention on the GWR Line Update section?

Other than Elizabeth Line services every GWR service from Reading for the remainder of the day appears to be listed as cancelled.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: jamestheredengine on January 04, 2024, 22:31:18
Knowing the almost certain severity of the weather and that disruption was almost inevitable, why, I wonder, did GWR not put out a warning to travel only if absolutely necessary first thing this morning, to coincide with the Met Office message and other weather forecasts?
The weather today has been significantly better in Cardiff today than it has been all week. The panic about the weather today quite frankly felt bizarre.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Trowres on January 04, 2024, 23:24:10
Quoting GWR Journeycheck:
Quote
Cancellations to services on all routes
Due to heavy rain flooding the railway all lines are disrupted.
Train services running across the whole Great Western Railway network will be cancelled. Disruption is expected until the end of the day.
Customer Advice
We apologise for the disruption to your journey today.

We are currently experiencing significant disruption on the network and customers are advised NOT TO TRAVEL.

Flooding has closed several routes and a person has been hit by a train near Reading.

Disruption is expected until the end of the day and you may not be able to complete your journey. If possible, please return in your direction of travel and make alternative arrangements. Please keep receipts for future reimbursement.

GWR and Elizabeth Line services will continue to operate between Paddington and Reading.

You would not guess from this message that services on the Birmingham-Bristol-Exeter axis have continued running, as have trains on the Taunton-Cardiff route. Severn Beach branch has suffered nothing worse than a 19 minute delay.



Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: grahame on January 04, 2024, 23:26:04
The weather today has been significantly better in Cardiff today than it has been all week. The panic about the weather today quite frankly felt bizarre.

In a band that missed you.  I went out to have a look this evening and never seen it so bad so close to home - and we have lived in Melksham since 1999.  Never seen the social media like it either but there I must admit that the prevelance of social media these days brings the story into my home in a way it would not have done even a few years ago.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: CyclingSid on January 05, 2024, 07:09:10
And this morning https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service-disruptions/swindon-20231231/ (https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service-disruptions/swindon-20231231/)

[snip]Flooding has closed several routes and an incident yesterday near Reading.

Major disruption is anticipated throughout the day.

Flooding sites:

    Bedwyn
    Castle Cary
    Southampton Central
    Romsey
    Lydney
    Looe Branch
    Newbury
    Aldermaston [snip]

Not much better on the roads https://www.theaa.com/route-planner/traffic-news (https://www.theaa.com/route-planner/traffic-news)

Live flood map does not look good in Thames Valley https://check-for-flooding.service.gov.uk/river-and-sea-levels?v=map&lyr=mv,ri,ti,gr,rf,tw&ext=-1.395597,51.644131,-1.061201,51.787674 (https://check-for-flooding.service.gov.uk/river-and-sea-levels?v=map&lyr=mv,ri,ti,gr,rf,tw&ext=-1.395597,51.644131,-1.061201,51.787674)

Got to work ok on the bike, not sure I would go much further today. The Kennet was high as I came through Reading.



Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Timmer on January 05, 2024, 07:58:10
Looks like nothing running on the Berks and Hants due to flooding with SW services diverted via Bristol calling additionally at Temple Meads. To make space for this and the diverted South Wales services, one of the half hourly Bristol to London services canned with Swansea to London services now calling additionally at Bath Spa.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: froome on January 05, 2024, 08:01:36
11 different line updates merged into one:

Quote
Cancellations to services on all routes
Due to heavy rain flooding the railway all lines are disrupted.
Train services running across the whole Great Western Railway network will be cancelled. Disruption is expected until the end of the day.
Customer Advice
We apologise for the disruption to your journey today.

We are currently experiencing significant disruption on the network and customers are advised NOT TO TRAVEL.

Flooding has closed several routes and a person has been hit by a train near Reading.

Disruption is expected until the end of the day and you may not be able to complete your journey. If possible, please return in your direction of travel and make alternative arrangements. Please keep receipts for future reimbursement.

GWR and Elizabeth Line services will continue to operate between Paddington and Reading.

Customers should check before travelling in the morning as we expect further disruption to services from the severe weather forecast overnight.

Tickets for travel today will be valid tomorrow.

95 cancellations currently listed.

Earlier in the evening you could witness the service completely unraveling by various station departure boards showing more and more services down as DELAYED followed by CANCELLED and now they are blank. The Paddington departure board just showing Heathrow Express services.

It has to be said the rainfall this afternoon and evening over Southern England was pretty exceptional in terms of intensity over a wide area and longevity. This coming on top of many days of rain previously.

To be fair to GWR, it was only in the morning that the Met Office upgraded yesterday’s yellow warning for rainfall to another level within the scope of a yellow warning. Based on this, I don't think GWR could have issued their advice regards travelling earlier or starting your journey much earlier than lunchtime.

On a separate but related note, it’s debatable whether it should have been an Amber weather warning given the amount of rain having fallen previously.

The forecast being made at 6pm on Wednesday was very clear - widespread heavy rain across all of southern England, with inevitable flooding risk due to the very high groundwater levels, leading to travel disruption. I don't think it could have been much clearer for GWR to act.

It was a pretty exceptional rainfall event, as it was developing as it arrived and was torrential in many places. But with the chaos of Tuesday still hopefully fresh in their minds, there really shouldn't have been any excuse.



Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: a-driver on January 05, 2024, 08:31:19
The forecast being made at 6pm on Wednesday was very clear - widespread heavy rain across all of southern England, with inevitable flooding risk due to the very high groundwater levels, leading to travel disruption. I don't think it could have been much clearer for GWR to act.

It was a pretty exceptional rainfall event, as it was developing as it arrived and was torrential in many places. But with the chaos of Tuesday still hopefully fresh in their minds, there really shouldn't have been any excuse.

Short of cancelling everything there isn’t much else GWR can do. There’s the high risk areas of which there is nearly always a diversion to get around. Unfortunately there was the fatality that become a crime scene and several flood events at some locations with no history of flooding.  It never rains but it pours!



Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Timmer on January 05, 2024, 08:35:22
The forecast being made at 6pm on Wednesday was very clear - widespread heavy rain across all of southern England, with inevitable flooding risk due to the very high groundwater levels, leading to travel disruption. I don't think it could have been much clearer for GWR to act.

It was a pretty exceptional rainfall event, as it was developing as it arrived and was torrential in many places. But with the chaos of Tuesday still hopefully fresh in their minds, there really shouldn't have been any excuse.
Even if GWR had issued a ‘Do Not Travel’ alert earlier, how many people would have observed this instruction? Most people haven’t got any choice but to travel for work.

This instruction of not to travel is happening so frequently on the railways for various reasons that its meaning may have been diluted somewhat and would wear thin with some managers of companies people work for. People travel anyway and hope for the best.

It wasn’t until the evening that the service rapidly deteriorated massively enhanced by the tragic incidents at Pangborne. That couldn’t have been foreseen.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: nickswift99 on January 05, 2024, 08:37:44
Pangbourne station remains closed and is expected to be closed for most of the day. There are currently no listed alternatives but the 143 bus from/to Reading can be used to reach Tilehurst or Reading stations.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: TaplowGreen on January 05, 2024, 08:55:11
The forecast being made at 6pm on Wednesday was very clear - widespread heavy rain across all of southern England, with inevitable flooding risk due to the very high groundwater levels, leading to travel disruption. I don't think it could have been much clearer for GWR to act.

It was a pretty exceptional rainfall event, as it was developing as it arrived and was torrential in many places. But with the chaos of Tuesday still hopefully fresh in their minds, there really shouldn't have been any excuse.
Even if GWR had issued a ‘Do Not Travel’ alert earlier, how many people would have observed this instruction? Most people haven’t got any choice but to travel for work.

This instruction of not to travel is happening so frequently on the railways for various reasons that its meaning may have been diluted somewhat and would wear thin with some managers of companies people work for. People travel anyway and hope for the best.

It wasn’t until the evening that the service rapidly deteriorated massively enhanced by the tragic incidents at Pangborne. That couldn’t have been foreseen.


Speculation over how many people will or will not observe a warning is no reason not to issue it - the Met Office were timely, abundantly clear and unambiguous in their own messaging, specifically citing travel problems which you would have thought would have triggered similar from transport providers.

It gives people pause for thought and to consider alternatives to travelling - working from home is a realistic option for many (yes I know not all) these days even on an ad hoc basis.

I suspect this was just dither, poor planning and lack of effective decision making - by the time any sort of warning was issued by GWR (initially only on Twitter) most would already have travelled and it was too late - events at Pangbourne notwithstanding however this exacerbated the situation with resources already thinly stretched due to the weather - as usual it appeared that staff did their best but there were far too few of them especially at Paddington and Reading where the main pinch points occurred.



Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: grahame on January 05, 2024, 09:50:20
From GWR ...

Quote
Dear Graham
 
Due to a serious incident on the railway between Reading and Didcot Parkway yesterday evening, which involved the police taking control of the main line until around 0600 this morning, today (Friday 5 January) we have multiple trains and a substantial proportion of our crew in the wrong place.
 
Because of this police incident and the continued flooding on parts of our network, we’re asking all customers to check before they travel at www.gwr.com/check because of the significant disruption caused to journeys today.
 
We expect short notice alterations and cancellations, as well as a reduced level of service on our high-speed long distance routes, throughout today.
 
In regards to the flooding, the lines between Swindon and Bristol Parkway, and Reading and Castle Cary remain closed.
 
Tickets for travel today will be valid tomorrow (Saturday 6 January). We also have ticket acceptance in place with CrossCountry, London Underground, Elizabeth line, South Western Railway, Southern, Thameslink and Transport for Wales until further notice to help customers complete their journeys.
 
We’re very sorry for the continued disruption to our customers, it has been a very challenging week. As ever any help you can give to make sure your networks are aware of the above, or sharing the latest updates from our X (formerly known as Twitter) teams at www.x.com/gwrhelp and www.x.com/networkrailwest would be greatly appreciated.
 
Best wishes
 
Tom & Heledd
 
Thomas Lydon | Public Affairs Manager | Great Western Railway
 
Heledd Iolo, Public Affairs Manager, Network Rail Western


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: didcotdean on January 05, 2024, 09:57:44
The UK Met Office's high resolution model (UKV) has definitely performed quite poorly this week for accuracy in predicting the rain on both Tuesday and Thursday for both intensity and positioning. It has come into line with other models such as the French Arpege late on but this means it wasn't represented too well early in public forecasts (ie just being described along the lines of 'something to look out for').

Now GWR would be having more detailed probabilistic info than the public but I do wonder if there has been a fatigue setting in relating to potential weather events for proactive cancellations, warnings etc.

On the flooding front if anyone wants to use Didcot Parkway, consider bringing your wellies. The drainage for the underpass has been overwhelmed again with platforms 4 & 5 presently out of use.



Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Rob S on January 05, 2024, 09:58:26
I turned up at Paddington at 2215 for the 2228 train to Swindon, saw the blank departure boards and then eventually noticed a GWR staff member telling people that there were no services and that the only alternative was Elizabeth Line to Reading and then taxi at our initial expense, but didn't get any idea of the cause, so I assumed it was flooding that hadn't affected my outward journey at 5-6pm. Due to some faffing about with some photos I'd taken at the ROH I eventually turned up to find the next EL train leaving in 5 minutes was also the last service of the day.

With no organised staff at the northern end of Reading to direct proceedings a black cab eventually turned up and £111 later I was at Swindon station. On the M4 I did look to see what the potential cause of all this was and surprised to see it was an incident between Readiing and Didcot, and wondered how this can mean a total closure of all GW departures to anywhere (not even terminating at Reading). What would the people turning up for the last PAD-SWI/BRI have done, taxi from London?


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Timmer on January 05, 2024, 10:15:17
The UK Met Office's high resolution model (UKV) has definitely performed quite poorly this week for accuracy in predicting the rain on both Tuesday and Thursday for both intensity and positioning. It has come into line with other models such as the French Arpege late on but this means it wasn't represented too well early in public forecasts (ie just being described along the lines of 'something to look out for').
Of late, I'm getting the impression that Met Office weather warnings are pretty much only based on what their UKV model is showing. Going back to Tuesday, as you say the French Arpege model was showing higher wind speeds the night before that were worthy of an amber warning. The following morning the UKV showed these higher wind speeds with the yellow warning upgraded to amber. A difficult call I know as you always want a warning to mean something. If you issue too many warnings or too higher warnings, their significance can be diluted, especially by the click bait media!


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: JayMac on January 05, 2024, 10:19:57
I turned up at Paddington at 2215 for the 2228 train to Swindon, saw the blank departure boards and then eventually noticed a GWR staff member telling people that there were no services and that the only alternative was Elizabeth Line to Reading and then taxi at our initial expense, but didn't get any idea of the cause, so I assumed it was flooding that hadn't affected my outward journey at 5-6pm. Due to some faffing about with some photos I'd taken at the ROH I eventually turned up to find the next EL train leaving in 5 minutes was also the last service of the day.

With no organised staff at the northern end of Reading to direct proceedings a black cab eventually turned up and £111 later I was at Swindon station. On the M4 I did look to see what the potential cause of all this was and surprised to see it was an incident between Readiing and Didcot, and wondered how this can mean a total closure of all GW departures to anywhere (not even terminating at Reading). What would the people turning up for the last PAD-SWI/BRI have done, taxi from London?

There was a serious incident in Pangbourne last night. Both at the station and in the village. British Transport Police at the scene requested the closure of all lines through the station.

Perhaps it was thought better to deal with those attempting to head west at Paddington, rather than Reading.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Timmer on January 05, 2024, 10:30:12
On the flooding front if anyone wants to use Didcot Parkway, consider bringing your wellies. The drainage for the underpass has been overwhelmed again with platforms 4 & 5 presently out of use.

Quote
Cancellations to services between Didcot Parkway and Oxford

Due to flooding between Didcot Parkway and Oxford some lines are closed.

Train services running through these stations may be cancelled or revised. Disruption is expected until the end of the day.

Can you tell me more about the incident?
We are unable to use some of the platforms at Didcot Parkway owing to flooding. Due to this our local stopping services cannot run and the majority of our high speed services cannot call at Didcot Parkway either.

What are my alternatives?
To assist you with your journey we will be operating a minimal rail replacement service at stations between Oxford and Didcot Parkway.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: JayMac on January 05, 2024, 10:34:46
Moderation note.

I've updated this thread's title to include 5th January too.

JayMac


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: ellendune on January 05, 2024, 10:37:47
The UK Met Office's high resolution model (UKV) has definitely performed quite poorly this week for accuracy in predicting the rain on both Tuesday and Thursday for both intensity and positioning. It has come into line with other models such as the French Arpege late on but this means it wasn't represented too well early in public forecasts (ie just being described along the lines of 'something to look out for').
Of late, I'm getting the impression that Met Office weather warnings are pretty much only based on what their UKV model is showing. Going back to Tuesday, as you say the French Arpege model was showing higher wind speeds the night before that were worthy of an amber warning. The following morning the UKV showed these higher wind speeds with the yellow warning upgraded to amber. A difficult call I know as you always want a warning to mean something. If you issue too many warnings or too higher warnings, their significance can be diluted, especially by the click bait media!

If you want to understand what the Met Office is up against in their forecasting, I suggest following their weekly "Deep Dive" on their You Tube (https://www.youtube.com/@metoffice) channel.  They do indeed look at the European and even the US weather models as well as their own.  


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: stuving on January 05, 2024, 10:41:13
The UK Met Office's high resolution model (UKV) has definitely performed quite poorly this week for accuracy in predicting the rain on both Tuesday and Thursday for both intensity and positioning. It has come into line with other models such as the French Arpege late on but this means it wasn't represented too well early in public forecasts (ie just being described along the lines of 'something to look out for').
Of late, I'm getting the impression that Met Office weather warnings are pretty much only based on what their UKV model is showing. Going back to Tuesday, as you say the French Arpege model was showing higher wind speeds the night before that were worthy of an amber warning. The following morning the UKV showed these higher wind speeds with the yellow warning upgraded to amber. A difficult call I know as you always want a warning to mean something. If you issue too many warnings or too higher warnings, their significance can be diluted, especially by the click bait media!

The track of the rain area was the main factor that I was aware of. Earlier on TuesdayWednesday, the heavy rain was predicted to just reach Reading, then slide past on the east side before heading north. Later on, with the upgrade of the warning, this area swept over Reading and on to Oxford, before again moving to the northeast. This matters for the watch I keep on rain in the upper Thames catchment - though at the moment the EA are confident Reading and Caversham will not see levels get much higher.

Prediction also failed in northern France. Pas-de-Calais has had a truly miserable winter so far. Widespread floods in November, then after that slowly retreated some parts had a further rise in levels in December. This time some of the same and some new places saw a sudden rise again, with widespread flooding. Some of the defensive measures taken out after the last episode had not been put back, due to the short notice. The rivers concerned are not big ones - Canche, Hem, Liane, Lys - and the Aa, no longer just everyone's favourite funny spelling.

I was a day out, I think


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: infoman on January 05, 2024, 11:03:33
Rob S

Will you be putting a claim for the £111  taxi ride?


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Rob S on January 05, 2024, 11:46:07
Rob S

Will you be putting a claim for the £111  taxi ride?

I have, yes  :)


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Timmer on January 05, 2024, 11:47:40
If you want to understand what the Met Office is up against in their forecasting, I suggest following their weekly "Deep Dive" on their You Tube (https://www.youtube.com/@metoffice) channel.  They do indeed look at the European and even the US weather models as well as their own.  
I do thank you ellendune and I have a great deal of respect for the work the Met Office do.

I was referring more to their warnings being very much based on one model from observations I've been making of issued weather warnings of late. As soon as UKV shows it, the warnings reflect what it shows. Fair enough, you may say. That's their forecast model very much aimed at the UK. All I'm asking is should their warnings take into consideration what other forecast models are showing and not just what the latest run of UKV is showing? That model's performance of late at times has left a lot to be desired.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: TaplowGreen on January 05, 2024, 16:16:42
Some more background to events in Pangbourne;

https://www.readingchronicle.co.uk/news/24030707.pangbourne-murder-probe-woman-stabbed-man-found-dead/


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: eightonedee on January 05, 2024, 18:01:42
To give an idea of what they are up against, here's what Newbury Station has been like-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c72yvylpzdpo

I expect Network Rail will also be looking with concern at how various earthworks will hold up with all the soaking they are currently getting.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: broadgage on January 05, 2024, 19:35:14
I have more sympathy with "the railway" in conditions this bad. What annoys me is the endless disruption in only moderately adverse weather.
 Considerable flooding near me, I am not directly affected as atop a small hill, but the odd power cut, and tesco home delivery much delayed.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: a-driver on January 05, 2024, 21:02:39
Some more background to events in Pangbourne;

https://www.readingchronicle.co.uk/news/24030707.pangbourne-murder-probe-woman-stabbed-man-found-dead/

Wow.  We did hear details late last night. I don’t know how events unfolded but there was talk GWR/NR wouldn’t be allowed access to the train until gone midnight, some 5 hours after the incident. What time they moved the train I have no idea, but the lines weren’t handed back for around 12 hours.
I guess they must have been searching for a weapon.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: jamestheredengine on January 05, 2024, 22:59:11
I have more sympathy with "the railway" in conditions this bad. What annoys me is the endless disruption in only moderately adverse weather.
 Considerable flooding near me, I am not directly affected as atop a small hill, but the odd power cut, and tesco home delivery much delayed.
The bit that I tend to wonder about when something goes awry in the Thames Valley is why route knowledge is not maintained via Greenford and Oxford. Yes, it would be slow, but it would give a realistic alternative route between Paddington and Swindon.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Ollie on January 06, 2024, 00:18:11
I have more sympathy with "the railway" in conditions this bad. What annoys me is the endless disruption in only moderately adverse weather.
 Considerable flooding near me, I am not directly affected as atop a small hill, but the odd power cut, and tesco home delivery much delayed.
The bit that I tend to wonder about when something goes awry in the Thames Valley is why route knowledge is not maintained via Greenford and Oxford. Yes, it would be slow, but it would give a realistic alternative route between Paddington and Swindon.

The main issue would be retention of route knowledge, so you'd need there to be scheduled services for GWR drivers and TM's/Guards in order to maintain the route competency.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: JayMac on January 06, 2024, 07:01:36
I've changed the thread title again as there is still disruption to GWR services into the weekend due to flooding continuing to affect journeys between Swindon & Bristol Parkway, and Reading & Westbury.

JayMac


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: JayMac on January 06, 2024, 07:04:33
The latest information from GWR, 7am Saturday 6th January 2024:

Quote
We’re really sorry for the disruption customers have faced after flooding closed some routes.

Rising river levels and already saturated ground means some lines may continue to be affected and customers should check their journeys before travelling.

The line between Swindon and Bristol Parkway is expected to remain closed this weekend, and the line between Theale and Taunton is likely to remain closed on Saturday 6 January. Services will continue to operate on a diversionary route and journeys will take longer.

To help customers with their journeys, those with tickets on affected routes for Thursday 4, Friday 5 and Saturday 6 January can travel up to and including Monday 8 January.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Electric train on January 06, 2024, 17:01:42
I have more sympathy with "the railway" in conditions this bad. What annoys me is the endless disruption in only moderately adverse weather.
 Considerable flooding near me, I am not directly affected as atop a small hill, but the odd power cut, and tesco home delivery much delayed.
The bit that I tend to wonder about when something goes awry in the Thames Valley is why route knowledge is not maintained via Greenford and Oxford. Yes, it would be slow, but it would give a realistic alternative route between Paddington and Swindon.

Apart from Ollies valid point about route knowledge retention you are assuming there is line capacity on the Chiltern Route


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Oxonhutch on January 06, 2024, 20:10:16
Apart from Ollies valid point about route knowledge retention you are assuming there is line capacity on the Chiltern Route

I assume one could replace a MYB-OXF service with a PAD-OXF service in the same path if required.

On a different note, is the line between Old Oak Common and Greenford going to be restored post HS2?


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Trowres on January 07, 2024, 00:40:47
Journey planners are still showing bus services to Swindon on today, Sunday 7th. Trains to Bristol and South Wales are supposed to be diverted via Pewsey. Journeycheck predicts disruption of services via Pewsey until end of 7th.

Anybody know what's being planned?



Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Timmer on January 07, 2024, 07:39:00
Journey planners are still showing bus services to Swindon on today, Sunday 7th. Trains to Bristol and South Wales are supposed to be diverted via Pewsey. Journeycheck predicts disruption of services via Pewsey until end of 7th.

Anybody know what's being planned?

Looking at journeycheck for clues at the moment (7.34) is a bit pointless as there are contradictory scenarios being shown. You can’t have the Berks and Hants closed AND engineering work between Chippenham and Reading and be able to run direct trains between South Wales/Bristol/Southwest and London.

Would be crazy to try and bus everyone between Chippenham and Reading from trains coming from all three places listed above.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: grahame on January 07, 2024, 08:09:02
Anybody know what's being planned?
Looking at journeycheck for clues at the moment (7.34) is a bit pointless ...

Utter chaos - rather sadly, best advice today may be "do not travel".   Let's face it, we have a fair weather, weekday only network ... and in poor weather (and for days thereafter) it struggles to meet expectations.   The overcomplexity of modern life adds all sorts of new issues that get in the way ...


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Worcester_Passenger on January 07, 2024, 08:12:27
As of 08:05, JourneyCheck's 'line updates' section is showing as attached.

That feels like a full house - and ought to have a 'do not travel'.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Timmer on January 07, 2024, 08:18:29
The 0745 Bristol to London is heading towards Westbury presumably to join the Berks and Hants at Hawkeridge Junction.

Pewsey Departure board is blank.

Westbury departure board showing London trains as running via Berks and Hants.

Cancellations of services that were due to be leaving Paddington now appearing on journeycheck.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Electric train on January 07, 2024, 08:18:53
Apart from Ollies valid point about route knowledge retention you are assuming there is line capacity on the Chiltern Route

I assume one could replace a MYB-OXF service with a PAD-OXF service in the same path if required.
That would require Chiltern to cancel one of there services for the benefit of one of their competitors, when you could just send the passengers to Marylebone for an Oxford service and they could change  at Oxford  

On a different note, is the line between Old Oak Common and Greenford going to be restored post HS2?

No.  Best they may happen is a terminating platforms for Chiltern, but that is not in scope other than passive provision.   The space where the diverging junction at Old Oak was is going to occupied by the alinement of the western throat of the GWML HS2 station which will have 8 GWML platforms


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: TaplowGreen on January 07, 2024, 08:32:33
The 0745 Bristol to London is heading towards Westbury presumably to join the Berks and Hants at Hawkeridge Junction.

Pewsey Departure board is blank.

Westbury departure board showing London trains as running via Berks and Hants.

Cancellations of services that were due to be leaving Paddington now appearing on journeycheck.


Very little appears to be leaving Paddington - details on my earlier post on the Infrastructure failure thread - even the Elizabeth Line seems to be affected so GWR can't rely on that to bale them out at the moment (forgive the unintended pun!)


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Timmer on January 07, 2024, 08:58:28
Becoming clearer now. The Berks and Hants IS now open but expect delays and cancellations as there has been damage to infrastructure:

Quote
Cancellations to services between Reading and Westbury

Due to heavy rain flooding the railway between Reading and Westbury fewer trains are able to run.

Train services running to and from these stations will be cancelled, delayed or revised. Disruption is expected until the end of the day.

Customer Advice

The route between Reading and Westbury is available for the resumption of train services. However, owing to damage to some lineside components fewer trains are able to operate. There are issues in other areas of our network which will prevent an early resumption of services but we, together with our industry colleagues, are working tirelessly to enable services to operate.

Initially, passengers from Reading for destinations via Theale to Newbury should use the Reading Buses JetBlack 1 bus service on which GWR rail tickets will be accepted. Note that the JetBlack 1 bus service does not call at locations immediately adjacent to all the local railway stations and operates an houry service on Sundays.

A limited shuttle train service will operate between Reading and Theale but please note that there are no onward connecting services from Theale.

A very limited rail replacement mini-bus service will be operating between Newbury and Bedwyn.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: IndustryInsider on January 07, 2024, 09:01:29
There’s been a welcome improvement in the ‘finer details’ of incidents of late.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: TaplowGreen on January 07, 2024, 09:16:50
This just from National Rail - more reliable than Journeycheck - obviously in addition to all the flooding related chaos.

Route(s) affected
Elizabeth line between London Paddington and Heathrow Terminal 4 / Heathrow Terminal 5 / Reading, and between Abbey Wood and Heathrow Terminal 4 / Heathrow Terminal 5, and also between Shenfield and Heathrow Terminal 4

Great Western Railway between London Paddington and Didcot Parkway / Oxford / Worcester Shrub Hill / Worcester Foregate Street / Great Malvern / Hereford / Swansea / Carmarthen / Bristol Parkway / Bristol Temple Meads / Weston-super-Mare / Taunton / Exeter St Davids / Newton Abbot / Paignton / Plymouth / Penzance

Heathrow Express between London Paddington and Heathrow Terminal 5

Description
Damage to the overhead electric wires between London Paddington and Heathrow Airport / Reading is causing disruption to journeys running to and from these stations.

As a result, trains may be cancelled, revised or delayed by up to 60 minutes..

We anticipate major disruption will continue until 12:00.

Customer advice:

Elizabeth line

There is no service between London Paddington and Ealing Broadway. Stations between Ealing Broadway and Heathrow / Reading are receiving a reduced service.

You may use your ticket on London Underground and London Bus services via any reasonable route at no extra cost.

Great Western Railway

No trains are currently operating between London Paddington and Reading.


You may use your ticket on the following services at no extra cost:

London Underground via any reasonable route

London Buses via any reasonable route

Southern via any reasonable route

Thameslink via any reasonable route


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: Timmer on January 07, 2024, 09:39:59
Things aren’t going well for the 0745 Bristol-Paddington which appears to be stuck in the Westbury area due a points failure.


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: grahame on January 07, 2024, 11:51:46
Things aren’t going well for the 0745 Bristol-Paddington which appears to be stuck in the Westbury area due a points failure.

07:45 Bristol to Paddington, due 09:40, arrived at 11:39. 
Pity anyone who got up early, taking advise that's been flying around in recent days to "start your journey as early as possible".

Weekday timetabled comparison - first Bristol to London trains:
04:53, arriving Paddington 06:28 (via Bristol Parkway)
05:10, arriving Paddington 07:37 (via Westbury)
05:23, arriving Paddington 06:57 (via Chippenham)


Title: Re: Travel advice 4th January onwards
Post by: froome on January 08, 2024, 09:29:59
With the flooding in Sodbury Tunnel and on various other lines last week, we were left with just the line through Bath for any London to Bristol/south Wales trains to use last week.

Given that we had bad flooding near to Chippenham closing this line only last month, and recent floods in Box Tunnel, how did we manage to escape a complete closure of all lines in this area? There has been a real deluge of rain in the Bath area in the last week, including all of Wiltshire, and the river Avon was at its highest level I have ever seen it at the end of the week, so the fact that this line did remain open seems surprising to me. If it had closed, what would then have happened?



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