Great Western Coffee Shop

Release time -09:30

I wondered when that was coming - thanks for the heads up!

Err ... maybe 09:30, but on 14th December?  :D

is today,

 Thursday 14 December 2023,is there an official time of this announcement?

09:30, I understand - see thread in the diary (I will move and merge in a few minutes)

okay

Well, The crown passes to Liverpool Street, favoured by a new line but perhaps other factors at play at Waterloo.

Mark


https://www.orr.gov.uk/search-news/all-change-most-used-stations-elizabeth-line-shakes-top-10 (https://www.orr.gov.uk/search-news/all-change-most-used-stations-elizabeth-line-shakes-top-10)

Quick extract of GWR managed stations ...

6581606 OXF Oxford
5468466 BTH Bath Spa
4527632 SLO Slough
3239874 MAI Maidenhead
2617322 EXD Exeter St David's
2608384 EXC Exeter Central
2588014 SWI Swindon (Wilts)
2329704 DID Didcot Parkway
2313092 PLY Plymouth
1965252 CNM Cheltenham Spa
1823646 BPW Bristol Parkway
1580166 WNC Windsor and Eton Central
1452948 GCR Gloucester
1444874 CPM Chippenham
1398098 TAU Taunton
1208000 NBY Newbury
1155346 NTA Newton Abbot
1100592 TRU Truro
1081660 TWY Twyford
939804 WSM Weston-Super-Mare
898376 EXM Exmouth
890980 DIG Digby and Sowton
734768 TRO Trowbridge
720062 SIV St Ives (Cornwall)
691384 TGM Teignmouth
687394 TOT Totnes
636400 PGN Paignton
608640 CFN Clifton Down
606832 HOT Henley-On-Thames
564724 PNZ Penzance
545068 STD Stroud (Gloucs)
536940 BNP Barnstaple
524190 TVP Tiverton Parkway
521474 FIT Filton Abbey Wood
518996 WSB Westbury
510574 DWL Dawlish
455448 TQY Torquay
452506 YAT Yatton
431288 SAU St Austell
428728 BWT Bridgwater
426700 BOA Bradford-On-Avon
421572 DPD Dorking (Deepdene)
419444 FNN Farnborough North
418586 KYN Keynsham
414450 NLS Nailsea and Backwell
364854 SER St Erth
362898 THA Thatcham
352838 KEM Kemble
334658 WOP Worcestershire Parkway
331844 TRR Torre
328990 RED Redruth
321370 PAN Pangbourne
320938 BAW Blackwater
320010 TLH Tilehurst
319340 WOR Worle
311814 CLC Castle Cary
310158 LSK Liskeard
297810 OLF Oldfield Park
295808 CBN Camborne
295452 WMN Warminster
289840 RDW Reading West
288174 GOR Goring and Streatley
282980 THE Theale
269072 MIM Moreton-In-Marsh
264396 EXT Exeter St Thomas
262498 HND Hanborough
261416 BOD Bodmin Parkway
257574 PYN Penryn (Cornwall)
257350 CBY Charlbury
255378 MLW Marlow
245142 EVE Evesham
243512 FMT Falmouth Town
238106 YAE Yate
233060 DWW Dawlish Warren
232220 HIG Highbridge and Burnham
229822 HGD Hungerford
228566 SVB Severn Beach
227632 TOP Topsham
226768 CBB Carbis Bay
219520 BMY Bramley (Hampshire)
212398 CHO Cholsey
211718 SRD Stapleton Road
209412 NCM North Camp
209022 LWH Lawrence Hill
207088 FRO Frome
206270 KGM Kingham
194980 PAR Par
194058 BNE Bourne End
190800 CRN Crowthorne
182976 CDU Cam and Dursley
181100 PEW Pewsey
178116 PNM Penmere
169540 MTP Montpelier
159258 POL Polsloe Bridge
158136 RDA Redland
157108 SHU Stonehouse
157036 PSN Parson Street
151602 COO Cookham
147106 YVP Yeovil Pen Mill
145908 NCO Newcourt
137008 STS Saltash
133176 CDI Crediton
129848 NQY Newquay
126974 HYL Hayle
125122 SND Sandhurst (Berks)
123394 FAL Falmouth Docks
122814 SJP St James Park (Exeter)
121002 MOR Mortimer
116530 FZP Furze Platt
115260 LOO Looe
109936 AVN Avonmouth
107120 SCS Starcross
103874 PSH Pershore
103246 BMT Bedminster
102132 RAD Radley
100900 IVY Ivybridge
94086 WNM Weston Milton
85768 HYB Honeybourne
83728 NRC Newbury Racecourse
83160 LYC Lympstone Commando
83042 LYM Lympstone Village
82196 DCW Dorchester West
81830 ASC Ashchurch for Tewkesbury
81534 BDW Bedwyn
80752 CUM Culham
78466 SHI Shiplake
77776 PWY Patchway
75132 SFR Shalford (Surrey)
72356 LOS Lostwithiel
68724 WGV Wargrave
67124 SHH Shirehampton
66670 CBP Castle Bar Park
65194 KIT Kintbury
64782 SGM St Germans
64206 MKM Melksham
62422 SML Sea Mills
50602 AMT Aldermaston
50572 GSL Gunnislake
47628 GOM Gomshall
46238 BRU Bruton
45908 UMB Umberleigh
44094 FFD Freshford
43722 EGG Eggesford
34970 DPT Devonport
33452 DKT Dorking West
32440 MDG Midgham
31926 PRW Perranwell
31616 CSK Calstock
31412 HYD Heyford
31090 BAS Bere Alston
30380 COP Copplestone
25160 LEL Lelant
23712 CHL Chilworth
23402 AVF Avoncliff
23370 EXN Exton
21902 YEO Yeoford
20898 TAC Tackley
20706 SGN South Greenford
19566 MDN Maiden Newton
17322 SAR St Andrews Road
17114 MRD Morchard Road
16082 DRG Drayton Green
13530 KEY Keyham
12368 BTO Betchworth
12076 DMH Dilton Marsh
11258 BFE Bere Ferrers
8960 DOC Dockyard (Devonport)
8098 SBV St Budeaux Victoria Road
7234 APF Appleford
6828 YET Yetminster
6620 BGL Bugle
6226 LAP Lapford
4908 ROC Roche
4242 NTC Newton St Cyres
3908 KGN Kings Nympton
3634 MEN Menheniot
3038 QUI Quintrell Downs
2916 THO Thornford
2794 SCR St Columb Road
2522 LUX Luxulyan
2508 SBF St Budeaux Ferry Road
2354 SIP Shipton
2048 CNO Chetnole
1628 AUW Ascott-Under-Wychwood
1588 CAU Causeland
1524 SKN St Keyne Wishing Well Halt
1398 CME Combe (Oxon)
1154 SDP Sandplace
798 PMA Portsmouth Arms
706 FIN Finstock
652 LTS Lelant Saltings
338 PIL Pilning
194 CPN Chapelton (Devon)
120 COE Coombe Junction Halt

Network Rail stations of note ....

9291680 BRI Bristol Temple Meads
20790150 CLJ Clapham Junction
5284714 GLD Guildford
59182926 PAD London Paddington
57789780 WAT London Waterloo
12400988 RDG Reading

... to be added, South Wales and South Western stations served by GWR

So WAT slips to third, behind LIV and PAD then.

Is Guildford a NR run station? SWR surely?

I believe is IS Network Rail - services from Great Western, South Western and formerly Cross Country.

It is - an oddity, not particularly large, or strategic. Probably ought to lie with SWR?

The NR stations are -

    Birmingham New Street
    Bristol Temple Meads
    Clapham Junction
    Edinburgh Waverley
    Glasgow Central
    Guildford
    Leeds City
    Liverpool Lime Street
    London Bridge
    London Cannon Street
    London Charing Cross
    London Euston
    London King’s Cross
    London Liverpool Street
    London Paddington
    London St Pancras International
    London Victoria
    London Waterloo
    Manchester Piccadilly
    Reading

It was only transferred in 2018 - from an NR statement at the time:

Very impressive showing for Worcestershire Parkway.

You missed Okehampton I think. Comes under Dartmoor Railway in the tables.

Hear are a load of the missing ones that GWR serve:

11693876 WIM Wimbledon
10185022 CDF Cardiff Central
5495672 SOU Southampton Central
5118228 PUT Putney
4004066 BSK Basingstoke
2339566 NWP Newport (South Wales)
1883574 SWA Swansea
1775756 FTN Fratton
1746574 PMH Portsmouth Harbour
1707210 PMS Portsmouth and Southsea
1621562 SAL Salisbury
1560326 WKM Wokingham
1415156 FRM Fareham
1133284 BGN Bridgend
1089664 ESL Eastleigh
1079070 SOA Southampton Airport Parkway
765158 CSA Cosham
666058 NTH Neath
641612 WEY Weymouth
471848 PTA Port Talbot Parkway
384366 ROM Romsey
366450 AXM Axminster
339596 HDE Hedge End
310290 WNS Winnersh
298074 HLS Hilsea
292606 CMN Carmarthen
288228 HON Honiton
277934 GIL Gillingham (Dorset)
273736 LLE Llanelli
228272 OKE Okehampton
179318 WCH Whitchurch (Hampshire)
179132 WTI Winnersh Triangle
170474 YVJ Yeovil Junction
166352 PIN Pinhoe
157562 CKN Crewkerne
151630 TIS Tisbury
128806 CFR Chandlers Ford
103238 CBK Cranbrook (Devon)
83500 SAN Sandown
68276 TMC Templecombe
52048 FNT Feniton
43128 UPW Upwey
39808 WHM Whimple
28894 RDB Redbridge
28230 DEN Dean (Wilts)
25426 MBK Millbrook (Hants)
24412 DBG Mottisfont and Dunbridge

I've updated my clickable map to include the 2023 figures:

https://empslocal.ex.ac.uk/people/staff/tej202/stations.htm (https://empslocal.ex.ac.uk/people/staff/tej202/stations.htm) (Follow the link to the map and then click on a station to see the time-series)

The time-series show that the post-COVID bounceback is pretty much complete in Devon and Cornwall.

Also (as noted elsewhere) the Elizabeth Line effect is very clear at Paddington and Liverpool Street!

I've never seen a GWR train at Wimbledon. Surely you mean SWR?  ;D

Looking at the 2021 GWR network map, some other places are not served - Chandler's Ford, Templecombe, Honiton, Whitchurch ... I can see why some those might be on a diversionary route, but Wimbledon is a bit of a stretch for that. And as for Putney ??

Thanks, really useful!

Since when has GWR served the above stations ?  I'd even debate stations between Pinhoe and Axminster, given the one train a weekday is cancelled more often than not.

Very quick and dirty manual operation.  I may have a look back when I get a chance or invite others to fill in gaps to Hereford and Pembroke Dock, and check intermediate stations between Paddington and Reading.  And did I miss Botley?

I've now added a second map which shows the year of peak usage (within the window 1998 - 2023). Some interesting patterns (with my speculations in brackets):

Stations with peak usage in 2023 (black in Map 2):
   Lots in Devon and Cornwall   (traffic not commuter heavy?)
   Elizabeth Line Stations          (no surprise)
   Cambridge - Ipswich             (new trains?)
   Norwich - Sheringham          (new trains?)
   Oban line                             (think I read about new school travel?)

Stations with peak usage immediately prior to the pandemic (purple in Map 2)
   Most of the country               (general pattern of growth halted by COVID?)
   Birmingham and Manchester commuter belts

Stations with peak usage a couple of years prior to the pandemic (blue in Map 2)
   London commuter belt (shift to home working predated pandemic?)

Stations with peak usage over 20 years ago (red in Map 2)
   A few stations where one really has to worry!



Does anyone else have thoughts about the usage patterns?

 


   

Those are a delight to use and very informative, thanks for putting them together.

Mark

Here in Bristol, a quick scan shows an interesting shift:

MTP has 169,000 pax, RDA 76,000 and SRD at 212,000. These are the highest ever recorded figures; MTP for example is 30% higher than its previous peak in 2014/5.

There may be a clue in the fact that CFN, at 608,000, is 25% down on its peak (764,000 in 2016/7). I always suspected that the way fares were collected skewed things towards CFN; on trains heading towards BRI, guards almost always sold tickets 'from CFN' for all stations between CFN and BRI.

Thanks for providing a very useful resource :-)

It does appear that patronage held up for longer around the major regional cities than it did in London or in smaller towns more isolated from the big hubs.

Looking in more detail at the graphs, there seem to be many in a form /^--- , where rapid growth in the first decade of the century plateaued in the second. Where the growth slowed or ended seems to vary; in Wiltshire it's 2015-2017 while in Cornwall it tends to be somewhat earlier. A similar demand curve is seen on the Welsh Marches Line and in many other places.

Some places like Gt Yarmouth have a radically different trendline - were there service reductions or problems over several years?

For the mainstream, there could be a number of reasons why growth slowed. In no particular order, I'd suggest:

• Changes to business and commuting due to technology
• Patronage reaching capacity, leading to a decline in quality
• Cumulative effect of austerity vs. RPI+ fare increases
• The delayed effect of a reduction in the number of improvements being implemented
• Entering a period where "improvements" caused disruption during construction or where commissioning went awry.

This is excellent, thank you.  Purely as a matter of interest, are you able to rank stations by their year-on-year growth?

A few patterns that might be relevant:

• A number of rural stations or obvious tourist destinations. Perhaps this is related to changing tourism travel patterns (e.g. declining holiday park traffic at Penychain).
• Stations that have very limited service - e.g. east of Ellesmere Port - not sure when it was reduced from a 'proper' service but perhaps there's a link.
• Closely-spaced stations e.g. a lot of smaller stations on the Valley Lines network. Something to do with the ways tickets are issued perhaps - are the peak dates related to booking office closures? In some areas, zonal ticketing being introduced? Similar to the zonal point, but where not officially zonal ticketing, tickets being sold on-train being issued from first station in same fare band to avoid changing origin station with each transaction? Local buses improving providing better 'metro' links than the trains?

Although the growth from 1998 is important, the return or not) to immediate prepandemic levels is also of interest for those campaigning for return of lost services.

Good idea - I'll have a think!

I suspected that the Severn Beach Line had bounced back from the pandemic fairly well.  It would be interesting to know but difficult I would imagine to find out, what changes, if any, there are in the types of journeys being made.
I hope that recent reliability issues that I've encountered or been aware of don't do anything to scupper the recovery.

Do you remember that just before Covid, and the swapping of franchise agreements for EMAs, SWR (then under Mark Hopwood) were threatening DfT they'd walk away from their contract, taking a loss, unless they got a management contract to replace it? They had been complaining about how the profit share was evolving since the end of 2018 - less than two years into the term.

Their problem (also affecting GA) was the Central London Employment measure used to set the base level for passenger numbers. That had been going up, but passenger numbers going down. So SWR were having to pay more to DfT out of a smaller farebox.

Various commentators suggested the deterioration of the service was putting people off commuting, but you could also call it remote working. This move away from going to work to work had been predicted for several years, but not turned up in the passenger figures before 2018. Some evidence suggested employees were not keen on it even where it was offered. So maybe SWR's poor service was the push they needed - followed by a much bigger shove from Covid.

Looking at SWR-land, most of the commuter towns outside London saw a small drop from 2018, and the levels have not returned anywhere near those for 2019.

the 16:11 Oban to Dalmally is a relatively recent train getting school children home - at a guess this unlikely looking service might be getting significant traffic.  I suspect the young ones arrive in Oban at 08:35 on the stupid O'Clock from Glasgow.