Great Western Coffee Shop

All across the Great Western territory => Looking forward - the next 5, 10 and 20 years => Topic started by: grahame on May 12, 2023, 08:10:16



Title: Are we fully back?
Post by: grahame on May 12, 2023, 08:10:16
From Rail Advent (https://www.railadvent.co.uk/2023/05/aprils-rail-passenger-numbers-reach-a-record-post-covid-high.html)

Quote
During the month of April, national rail passenger figures reached a record for post-Covid with a daily average of 98.3%.

The figures were published by the Department of Transport (DfT) last Wednesday, 10th May. They also showed that on 14 days in April, passenger figures were at 101% to 106%, pre-Covid, and on only four days, which were the first four days of the month, were they less than 90% (88%).

Are we, really, fully back

We have lost some things ... should we be looking for them back, or has this been a correct opportunity to refactor?
* Though daytime trains from Bradford-on-Avon and Trowbridge to London
* Counter service from a fixed location of coffees and snacks on long distance services
* Services that are not subject to near-total cancellation a couple of days each month due to industrial disputes



Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: ChrisB on May 12, 2023, 08:18:55
It’ll be interesting to see what the DfT allows TOCs to reinstate (Chiltern’s increases in both services & seats for example) and what they don’t (causing regular overcrowding)


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: Electric train on May 12, 2023, 09:12:29
Some of the cuts / reductions imposed by DfT to reduce costs may never come back or if they do it may have to wait post 2024 GE

Of course the recovery post Covid may highlight new and or different service patterns


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: grahame on May 12, 2023, 09:45:39
Of course the recovery post Covid may highlight new and or different service patterns

That is utterly true - "Train Back Better"? - though not the alliteration ring of "Bus Back Better"

I am not shedding tears for the 06:37 Paddington to Plymouth super fast, preferring the 06:00 which serves intermediate stations too ...


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: TaplowGreen on May 12, 2023, 09:47:19


Of course the recovery post Covid may highlight new and or different service patterns

Indeed - the fact that despite the rise in passenger numbers, revenue is only at 90% of pre COVID levels would very much support that - more leisure travel perhaps, but less business travel which generated more revenue?


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: IndustryInsider on May 12, 2023, 11:42:32
Incredible figures, given that there's been:

* A change in commuting habits.
* A cost of living crisis.
* The ongoing industrial action.
* Some operators not returning to pre-Covid levels of service off-peak.
* Widespread cancellations for certain operators.

The DfT's response:

Let's get rid of a load of stock to cut costs.


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: ellendune on May 12, 2023, 18:10:25
Incredible figures, given that there's been:

* A change in commuting habits.
* A cost of living crisis.
* The ongoing industrial action.
* Some operators not returning to pre-Covid levels of service off-peak.
* Widespread cancellations for certain operators.

The DfT's response:

Let's get rid of a load of stock to cut costs.

Yes because our politicians have never run any proper business and don't have the first clue how to.  Think about Jacob Rees-Mogg's protestations that working from home means laziness and other general attacks on civil service staff.  Also his recent claim that he could do the work of sorting through thousands of pieces of EU legislation in a weekend.  They are just delusional amateurs.  Why would you expect them to be able to run anything.

Cutting costs regardless of the needs of the business is the mantra of fund managers (which is where many of them previously made their fortunes) who impose this on hapless businesses as condition for continuing to support the managers of business.  It is basically asset stripping the business to make the figure look good for a fire sale. 

Sorry rant over


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: Electric train on May 12, 2023, 19:38:37
Incredible figures, given that there's been:

* A change in commuting habits.
* A cost of living crisis.
* The ongoing industrial action.
* Some operators not returning to pre-Covid levels of service off-peak.
* Widespread cancellations for certain operators.

The DfT's response:

Let's get rid of a load of stock to cut costs.

Yes because our politicians have never run any proper business and don't have the first clue how to.  Think about Jacob Rees-Mogg's protestations that working from home means laziness and other general attacks on civil service staff.  Also his recent claim that he could do the work of sorting through thousands of pieces of EU legislation in a weekend.  They are just delusional amateurs.  Why would you expect them to be able to run anything.

Cutting costs regardless of the needs of the business is the mantra of fund managers (which is where many of them previously made their fortunes) who impose this on hapless businesses as condition for continuing to support the managers of business.  It is basically asset stripping the business to make the figure look good for a fire sale. 

Sorry rant over

We must not loose sight of the 2024 GE and the current ruling party wanting to buy back voters with tax cuts ............... they need money in the bank, to do that cut public services 


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: ellendune on May 13, 2023, 09:40:04
Incredible figures, given that there's been:

* A change in commuting habits.
* A cost of living crisis.
* The ongoing industrial action.
* Some operators not returning to pre-Covid levels of service off-peak.
* Widespread cancellations for certain operators.

The DfT's response:

Let's get rid of a load of stock to cut costs.

Yes because our politicians have never run any proper business and don't have the first clue how to.  Think about Jacob Rees-Mogg's protestations that working from home means laziness and other general attacks on civil service staff.  Also his recent claim that he could do the work of sorting through thousands of pieces of EU legislation in a weekend.  They are just delusional amateurs.  Why would you expect them to be able to run anything.

Cutting costs regardless of the needs of the business is the mantra of fund managers (which is where many of them previously made their fortunes) who impose this on hapless businesses as condition for continuing to support the managers of business.  It is basically asset stripping the business to make the figure look good for a fire sale. 

Sorry rant over

We must not loose sight of the 2024 GE and the current ruling party wanting to buy back voters with tax cuts ............... they need money in the bank, to do that cut public services 

Precisely! Asset stripping the business country for a fire sale in 2024.  All they know how to do.


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: Electric train on May 13, 2023, 14:20:21
Incredible figures, given that there's been:

* A change in commuting habits.
* A cost of living crisis.
* The ongoing industrial action.
* Some operators not returning to pre-Covid levels of service off-peak.
* Widespread cancellations for certain operators.

The DfT's response:

Let's get rid of a load of stock to cut costs.

Yes because our politicians have never run any proper business and don't have the first clue how to.  Think about Jacob Rees-Mogg's protestations that working from home means laziness and other general attacks on civil service staff.  Also his recent claim that he could do the work of sorting through thousands of pieces of EU legislation in a weekend.  They are just delusional amateurs.  Why would you expect them to be able to run anything.

Cutting costs regardless of the needs of the business is the mantra of fund managers (which is where many of them previously made their fortunes) who impose this on hapless businesses as condition for continuing to support the managers of business.  It is basically asset stripping the business to make the figure look good for a fire sale. 

Sorry rant over

We must not loose sight of the 2024 GE and the current ruling party wanting to buy back voters with tax cuts ............... they need money in the bank, to do that cut public services 

Precisely! Asset stripping the business country for a fire sale in 2024.  All they know how to do.

They have already sold the family silver in the privatisations of the 80's and 90's


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: TaplowGreen on May 14, 2023, 08:15:31
Incredible figures, given that there's been:

* A change in commuting habits.
* A cost of living crisis.
* The ongoing industrial action.
* Some operators not returning to pre-Covid levels of service off-peak.
* Widespread cancellations for certain operators.

The DfT's response:

Let's get rid of a load of stock to cut costs.

Yes because our politicians have never run any proper business and don't have the first clue how to.  Think about Jacob Rees-Mogg's protestations that working from home means laziness and other general attacks on civil service staff.  Also his recent claim that he could do the work of sorting through thousands of pieces of EU legislation in a weekend.  They are just delusional amateurs.  Why would you expect them to be able to run anything.

Cutting costs regardless of the needs of the business is the mantra of fund managers (which is where many of them previously made their fortunes) who impose this on hapless businesses as condition for continuing to support the managers of business.  It is basically asset stripping the business to make the figure look good for a fire sale. 

Sorry rant over

Leaving the political/ideological rhetoric to one side, if the railway was being truly run in accordance with "the needs of the business" one of the first things to be done would be to cut costs by closing the majority of ticket offices to reflect the shift in customer behaviour to online/automated transactions, in much the same way as High Street Banks are disappearing in smaller towns, which ironically is what the Government is seeking, but is being resisted at every step by the Trade Unions.

One should sometimes be careful what one wishes for  :)


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: JayMac on May 14, 2023, 10:25:55
Leaving the political/ideological rhetoric to one side...

<snip>

... which ironically is what the Government is seeking, but is being resisted at every step by the Trade Unions.

Isn't that a political/ideological viewpoint too?


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: TaplowGreen on May 14, 2023, 10:59:07
Leaving the political/ideological rhetoric to one side...

<snip>

... which ironically is what the Government is seeking, but is being resisted at every step by the Trade Unions.

Isn't that a political/ideological viewpoint too?

I think it pretty objectively reflects the position of both sides quite accurately on this issue but I'm happy to be corrected if that isn't the case and its inaccurate?


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: IndustryInsider on May 14, 2023, 12:04:45
Leaving the political/ideological rhetoric to one side, if the railway was being truly run in accordance with "the needs of the business" one of the first things to be done would be to cut costs by closing the majority of ticket offices to reflect the shift in customer behaviour to online/automated transactions, in much the same way as High Street Banks are disappearing in smaller towns, which ironically is what the Government is seeking, but is being resisted at every step by the Trade Unions.

It would be helpful if the government/DfT were clear on how many ticket offices they plan to close.  Is it all of them?  Is it the large majority (90+%)?  Is it a small majority (60%)?


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: ellendune on May 14, 2023, 12:19:48
Leaving the political/ideological rhetoric to one side, if the railway was being truly run in accordance with "the needs of the business" one of the first things to be done would be to cut costs by closing the majority of ticket offices to reflect the shift in customer behaviour to online/automated transactions, in much the same way as High Street Banks are disappearing in smaller towns, which ironically is what the Government is seeking, but is being resisted at every step by the Trade Unions.

One should sometimes be careful what one wishes for  :)

But High Street Bank branch closures are not actually meeting the needs of customers.  Therefore they are not meeting the needs of the business.  Small businesses and others who need to bank cash now have to travel miles to do this.  I bank with one of the big four banks and I am fortunate that I have a branch within 3 miles, but the next nearest branches are 15 to 20 miles away.  There is much talk of banking hubs to provide for customers needs, but there are none anywhere I have been.  I can pay in a cheque using the app up to a certain value, but beyond that I need to find a branch.  

Similarly stations need staff who can sort ticket problems out as well as provide a presence.  Time and again on this board we have criticised the limitations of TVMs but there is no attempt to make them any better. They have reduce the number of machines at Swindon recently. Buying on-line is ok but for complex journeys it is still no substitute for the expertise of an experience ticket office person.  What about those who are not on-line and even those who only use cash?


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: TaplowGreen on May 14, 2023, 13:11:56
Leaving the political/ideological rhetoric to one side, if the railway was being truly run in accordance with "the needs of the business" one of the first things to be done would be to cut costs by closing the majority of ticket offices to reflect the shift in customer behaviour to online/automated transactions, in much the same way as High Street Banks are disappearing in smaller towns, which ironically is what the Government is seeking, but is being resisted at every step by the Trade Unions.

It would be helpful if the government/DfT were clear on how many ticket offices they plan to close.  Is it all of them?  Is it the large majority (90+%)?  Is it a small majority (60%)?

That's a very good point.


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: Surrey 455 on May 14, 2023, 20:41:25
But High Street Bank branch closures are not actually meeting the needs of customers.  Therefore they are not meeting the needs of the business.  Small businesses and others who need to bank cash now have to travel miles to do this.  I bank with one of the big four banks and I am fortunate that I have a branch within 3 miles, but the next nearest branches are 15 to 20 miles away.  There is much talk of banking hubs to provide for customers needs, but there are none anywhere I have been.  I can pay in a cheque using the app up to a certain value, but beyond that I need to find a branch.

For most banks, you can pay in cheques and cash and make withdrawals at your local post office.

https://www.postoffice.co.uk/everydaybanking

If you click on your bank on that link, you should get a bit more detail.



Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: ellendune on May 14, 2023, 21:01:39
But High Street Bank branch closures are not actually meeting the needs of customers.  Therefore they are not meeting the needs of the business.  Small businesses and others who need to bank cash now have to travel miles to do this.  I bank with one of the big four banks and I am fortunate that I have a branch within 3 miles, but the next nearest branches are 15 to 20 miles away.  There is much talk of banking hubs to provide for customers needs, but there are none anywhere I have been.  I can pay in a cheque using the app up to a certain value, but beyond that I need to find a branch.

For most banks, you can pay in cheques and cash and make withdrawals at your local post office.

https://www.postoffice.co.uk/everydaybanking

If you click on your bank on that link, you should get a bit more detail.



If you are a business with significant amounts of loose change then Post Offices are not so accommodating. 


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: TaplowGreen on May 16, 2023, 12:12:57
From Rail Advent (https://www.railadvent.co.uk/2023/05/aprils-rail-passenger-numbers-reach-a-record-post-covid-high.html)

Quote
During the month of April, national rail passenger figures reached a record for post-Covid with a daily average of 98.3%.

The figures were published by the Department of Transport (DfT) last Wednesday, 10th May. They also showed that on 14 days in April, passenger figures were at 101% to 106%, pre-Covid, and on only four days, which were the first four days of the month, were they less than 90% (88%).

Are we, really, fully back

We have lost some things ... should we be looking for them back, or has this been a correct opportunity to refactor?
* Though daytime trains from Bradford-on-Avon and Trowbridge to London
* Counter service from a fixed location of coffees and snacks on long distance services
* Services that are not subject to near-total cancellation a couple of days each month due to industrial disputes



One question on this......do these figures include the Elizabeth Line?

Presumably it has picked up a lot of passengers who'd previously have used the Underground or other means?

According to The Economist almost one in six Rail journeys are now made on this line.


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: TaplowGreen on May 19, 2023, 07:36:50
From Rail Advent (https://www.railadvent.co.uk/2023/05/aprils-rail-passenger-numbers-reach-a-record-post-covid-high.html)

Quote
During the month of April, national rail passenger figures reached a record for post-Covid with a daily average of 98.3%.

The figures were published by the Department of Transport (DfT) last Wednesday, 10th May. They also showed that on 14 days in April, passenger figures were at 101% to 106%, pre-Covid, and on only four days, which were the first four days of the month, were they less than 90% (88%).

Are we, really, fully back

We have lost some things ... should we be looking for them back, or has this been a correct opportunity to refactor?
* Though daytime trains from Bradford-on-Avon and Trowbridge to London
* Counter service from a fixed location of coffees and snacks on long distance services
* Services that are not subject to near-total cancellation a couple of days each month due to industrial disputes



One question on this......do these figures include the Elizabeth Line?

Presumably it has picked up a lot of passengers who'd previously have used the Underground or other means?

According to The Economist almost one in six Rail journeys are now made on this line.


Did my own research on Graham's link/article and found this note in respect of the Elizabeth Line which was provided as a caveat;

Since services in the central section of Crossrail started running in May 2022, there has been a significant uplift in National Rail journeys counted in the LENNON database. Before May 2022, Crossrail services were operated under ‘TfL Rail’ branding, which ran between Paddington and Reading or Heathrow Airport, and between Liverpool Street and Shenfield. These journeys were direct replacements for previous National Rail services and were counted in LENNON. Following the opening of the central section, when Crossrail services began operating under ‘Elizabeth line’ branding, these journeys started being recorded in LENNON, replacing some journeys that would have been taken on other modes such as London Underground and DLR. Given that other modes’ journeys are not included in LENNON, the number of journeys represented in the ‘Daily domestic transport use by mode’ statistics include the impact of these additional journeys taken on the Elizabeth line. A like-for-like comparison of rail demand would therefore show a lower recovery than stated in this publication.


- so it's not comparing apples with apples in terms of the post COVID recovery in passenger numbers.


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: TaplowGreen on May 23, 2023, 05:57:07
From Rail Advent (https://www.railadvent.co.uk/2023/05/aprils-rail-passenger-numbers-reach-a-record-post-covid-high.html)

Quote
During the month of April, national rail passenger figures reached a record for post-Covid with a daily average of 98.3%.

The figures were published by the Department of Transport (DfT) last Wednesday, 10th May. They also showed that on 14 days in April, passenger figures were at 101% to 106%, pre-Covid, and on only four days, which were the first four days of the month, were they less than 90% (88%).

Are we, really, fully back

We have lost some things ... should we be looking for them back, or has this been a correct opportunity to refactor?
* Though daytime trains from Bradford-on-Avon and Trowbridge to London
* Counter service from a fixed location of coffees and snacks on long distance services
* Services that are not subject to near-total cancellation a couple of days each month due to industrial disputes



One question on this......do these figures include the Elizabeth Line?

Presumably it has picked up a lot of passengers who'd previously have used the Underground or other means?

According to The Economist almost one in six Rail journeys are now made on this line.


Did my own research on Graham's link/article and found this note in respect of the Elizabeth Line which was provided as a caveat;

Since services in the central section of Crossrail started running in May 2022, there has been a significant uplift in National Rail journeys counted in the LENNON database. Before May 2022, Crossrail services were operated under ‘TfL Rail’ branding, which ran between Paddington and Reading or Heathrow Airport, and between Liverpool Street and Shenfield. These journeys were direct replacements for previous National Rail services and were counted in LENNON. Following the opening of the central section, when Crossrail services began operating under ‘Elizabeth line’ branding, these journeys started being recorded in LENNON, replacing some journeys that would have been taken on other modes such as London Underground and DLR. Given that other modes’ journeys are not included in LENNON, the number of journeys represented in the ‘Daily domestic transport use by mode’ statistics include the impact of these additional journeys taken on the Elizabeth line. A like-for-like comparison of rail demand would therefore show a lower recovery than stated in this publication.


- so it's not comparing apples with apples in terms of the post COVID recovery in passenger numbers.

This also helps to put it into perspective.....

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/150-million-journeys-elizabeth-line-popularity-b1082736.html


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: TaplowGreen on July 13, 2023, 15:50:15
Some interesting figures here.....especially in terms of revenue.

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/usage/passenger-rail-usage/#:~:text=In%20the%20latest%20year%20(April,issues%20in%20the%20data%20source.


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: johnneyw on August 11, 2023, 20:53:42
Here's an interesting article in The Grauniad suggesting a few positives for the future of the railways.  I think it'll take rather more than what they've listed to turn things around and in fairness, they've not presented these as the magic wand that sorts out our trains.
Anyway, the article is on the link below.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/11/six-ways-to-get-britains-railways-back-on-track-and-six-reasons-for-cheer


Title: Re: Are we fully back?
Post by: Electric train on August 12, 2023, 08:34:11
Here's an interesting article in The Grauniad suggesting a few positives for the future of the railways.  I think it'll take rather more than what they've listed to turn things around and in fairness, they've not presented these as the magic wand that sorts out our trains.
Anyway, the article is on the link below.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/11/six-ways-to-get-britains-railways-back-on-track-and-six-reasons-for-cheer


From the internal data I have seen the recovery is a bit erratic when compared to 2019 data, it does show 2023 is in a better place than 2022.  A factor which I feel is skewing the recovery is the industrial action.

It could be argued, cynically, that the Unions are playing into the Governments hands to cut funding due to low recovery of passengers post Covid and that is the main reason why the Government are not worried about settling the dispute.



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