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Apparently it’s been announced by SWR internally today that the 442s are out, and the 458/5s will be re-converted back to 4 car 100 mph units, to be based at Bournemouth.   I assume they’ll be operated as 12 car sets to give max capacity at 2+2 seating on the mainline routes.

They have stated the 442s will be scrapped, although I suppose
 the rumour mill might have other ideas...

Paul

From Wikipedia:

SWR Newsflash Changes to our fleet: Withdrawal of Class 442 The COVID-19 pandemic and the effect this has had on rail travel has forced us to rethink and adapt our fleet strategy. As a result, we have taken the hard decision to permanently withdraw our Class 442 trains which haven't been used since the start of the pandemic in March 2020 Prior to the pandemic, the Class 442s were seen as an important part of our strategy to meet the ever growing peak demand for our services. This is why we made the decision to refurbish them and modernise their traction and braking equipment. A great deal of work has been carried out by our skilled team at Bournemouth Depot and the wider Engineering and SWR team throughout the project and this news has, as you can imagine, come as a disappointment for the whole team involved There is positive news too that I am pleased to share with you that sets our fleet strategy and Bournemouth depot's forward plans in the medium-term, we have extended our lease with Porterbrook for the Class 458s, who will be converting them back to 4-car 100mph units whilst at the same time refurbishing them to make them suitable for our longer-distance journeys. This fleet will be based at Bournemouth depot, going towards protecting the workforce there. The Class 442 units will be retired from service and go through a process to remove useful spares and dispose of the vehicles. This is obviously an abrupt and unexpected end to the fleet, however, given the reduction in our customer numbers and expected future growth, we do have to take a realistic view of future demand and deliver the most efficient service we can for our customers and the taxpayer. Neil Drury Engineering Director

Another case in which years of rising passenger numbers have resulted in worsening crowding and more standing for longer distances.
Then a probably short term drop in numbers results in scrapping of rolling stock to reduce capacity.

Whenever serious or worsening crowding is complained about, the rail industry mantra is that "there is no spare rolling stock"
Or in more detail
"We can not justify obtaining extra rolling stock for exceptional event like Christmas, bank holidays, major sporting events, Easter, school holidays, beginings/ends of university terms, and other rare events"

When there is any risk of being able to cope with peak flows, then stock must be scrapped in order to return to the default position of "there is no spare rolling stock"

SWR more than most operators have lots of rolling stock that is (or was) purely used to cope with commuting demand twice a day. 

I can’t foresee SWR’s passenger numbers recovering to anything like what is was before the pandemic because of that.

Many off-peak SWR trains had vast amounts of off-peak capacity before the pandemic.  If a fleet rationing maintains train lengths on the routes and times it is still needed then it is a sensible decision.

I foresee other operators with similar market bias towards commuting coming to the same conclusion and many older (and some newer) EMU fleets being retired early.

Highly unlikely Angel Trains will find another customer for the 442s, despite the wild speculation across other rail forums as to how they could be used/converted for use elsewhere.

So, the piggies are most likely off to the abattoir. Where only the choicest cuts will be trimmed from their cold dead carcasses.

Hopefully, one full set can be bought and preserved, with conversion back to original livery/internals. Who'd do so and where it would run (loco hauled obviously) are the big questions...

There seems to have been much speculation around heritage electrification this morning - South Devon, Wallingford, and Lynton to Lynmouth.  I suspect that latter has gradient too steep for a 442, and I also expect the idea won't go much further.

Many a true word written in jest - I still wonder at the case for a third rail heritage operation, such as running on the Bromley North branch on a Sunday.  So many people brought up with stock now replaced and would love a trip out on an Electro Pneumatic Brake (EPB) or a HAP to show their grandchildren what things were like in their youth.  Is there a park at Grove Park for them to enjoy?

Edit: VickiS - Clarifying acronym

There was a short period in BR history when the most influential member of the BRBoard was The Design Director. In my view, the only positive development of that period was the 442 fleet - I don't know how much input she had in it, but the resulting Wessex Electrics are, in my view, the best looking and, 5 Bel pullmans apart, the most comfortable electric units to have run our rails. Runner up was probably the Clacton electrics.

Sorry. Just showing my age.

(By the way, BNM, great that you are about again. For me, 11 months of shielding formally ended last night so I can at least realistically plan a trip, even if it remains in the future).

You never know! The 442s managed the steep climb out of Weymouth quite well. As long as only one unit was in the area. Current draw was problematical when another train was nearby. Climb up to Lynton is only a little steeper isn't it?

Thanks rp. Things didn't go exactly to plan this morning. More on that elsewhere on the forum later.

I only ever took a handful of journeys on the Wessex Electrics. They were great units. The last BR stock to be built with compartments I believe. And that unique 'snug' area next to the buffet counter.

The last trip I took on one was when some moved to Southern to provide the Gatwick Express service, with some extensions to Brighton. I managed to bag an unrefurbished set on a trip during a 1st Class All Line Rover jolly. Got a compartment to myself for most of the journey from Victoria to Brighton. Sadly there was no buffet service, but the 'snug' area was still there. Happy memories.

I am serious when I say a 442 set should be preserved. The class is a world record holder after all.

It's looking like my last trip was one from Brighton to Gatwick, but alas I had a refurbished one.

I managed one last trip when they where running one diagram on the Portsmouth direct in August 2019. I walked along the Wey navigation from Guildford to Godalming and then caugt a 442 to Portsmouth harbour.
(https://i.ibb.co/6yFvD2b/422-Godalming-20aug19.jpg)
My train arriving at Godalming 20th August 2019

My concern would be that the last time SWR (or its ROSCO) upgraded a set of trains; e.g. Reading-Waterloo conversion from four to five car all the bike spaces vanished.

442 401 was identified by the Railway Heritage Designation Advisory Board for preservation a few years ago but a full set would be more fitting I agree.

I was living in Weymouth during the period when the 442 was introduced and a long drawn out affair it was, seeing that the Class 432s had to be sequentially retired in order to salvage the traction motors and electrical control gear to be recycled into the 442s. The initial operational difficulties particularly with the plug doors prolonged this process. I was on the last REP unit going into Weymouth which sounded its horn pretty much continuously from Upwey.

They shaved around 20 minutes off the journey time to London, although this has been eaten into over the years by the increased number of stops between Waterloo and Bournemouth.

It was said that the first class had compartments 'to meet the demands of the customers', ie the number of Army, Navy, MoD and UKAEA staff that would be regular users.