|
Title: 6th December 2016 Post by: grahame on November 13, 2016, 13:58:07 Publication of the annual station usage figures is scheduled for 6th December on the ORR website
Quote Estimates of Station Usage - Official Statistics Annual(2015-16) 06/12/2016 Although there are underlying anomalies for many stations, these anomalies tend to carry on year to year and the change in figures from one year to the next gives us valuable (if 9 months late!) data. Anyone like to hazard any guesses? Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: John R on November 13, 2016, 14:16:10 Indeed the mid point of the data is even later, as we are comparing April 15 to Mar 16 with April 14 to Mar 15. So on average it's sort of looking at a Sep 14 to Sep15 comparison if trying to spot trends.
But what that does mean is that the trend for MKM will be clear for once, as last year's figures, when compared against the previous year, would not have been a true comparison, given that Apr to Dec 13 was prior to the service enhancement. (If that all makes sense?) Unfortunately the figures will be slightly muddied by the Box Tunnel closure, but I'll pluck a figure out of thin air and say +50% for MKM. Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: grahame on November 13, 2016, 17:05:13 Indeed the mid point of the data is even later, as we are comparing April 15 to Mar 16 with April 14 to Mar 15. So on average it's sort of looking at a Sep 14 to Sep15 comparison if trying to spot trends. But what that does mean is that the trend for MKM will be clear for once, as last year's figures, when compared against the previous year, would not have been a true comparison, given that Apr to Dec 13 was prior to the service enhancement. (If that all makes sense?) Utter senses as I have lived these figures and statistics ;D . In each of the two last reports (for years to March 2014 and to March 2015) the Melksham figure doubled. So the introduction of the trial service was reports in two steps. If the figures were published from one timetable chafe to the next, you would probably have seen around 8,000 for 2013 rise to somewhere like 45,000 for 2014 and then to 65,000 for 2015, and I would be projecting 90,000 for 2016. Quote Unfortunately the figures will be slightly muddied by the Box Tunnel closure, but I'll pluck a figure out of thin air and say +50% for MKM. Not far out, I suspect, John. I'm going to guess at around 80,000 - up from 58,000 and a rise of just under 40%, which is still not too shabby. Looking further forward, the percentage growth will probably creep down but continue to be high for a number of years, assuming (and this is dangerous) that the line has the capacity to handle it. One of the reasons for figures to start dropping is that people are being put off overcrowded trains and until they're longer you're going to see traffic being stunted from now. Actually I wasn't only interested in Melksham in my question ... there are 200+ other GWR stations ... Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: grahame on December 06, 2016, 05:16:16 Nothing yet at
http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/published-stats/station-usage-estimates So it looks like it's not a press release that was embargoes until 00:01 Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: John R on December 06, 2016, 06:35:57 I recall in previous years it gets uploaded mid morning.
Title: Station usage estimate for 2015 / 2016 Post by: grahame on December 06, 2016, 11:23:33 Here is a summary of how stations in the "South West" have fared over the year from 2014/15 to 2015/16
Sorted by growth (first column shows 2015/16 over 2014/15). Second column is 14-15 and third column is 15-16. Code:
"South West" defined as stations with postcodes starting TR PL SN TQ EX TA DT SP BS BA SH RG SL OX DO BH GL WR HR GU PO for this initial exercise My full time series at http://www.wellho.net/data/rstats2016.xyz ; needs checking and will be short of the more recently opened stations. Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: grahame on December 06, 2016, 11:38:38 Station comparator at http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/smr/ updated to include new data
Graphics such as http://www.wellho.net/demo/railuse.php?place=BS updated Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: stuving on December 06, 2016, 11:48:58 Station comparator at http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/smr/ updated to include new data ... though the year on year ratio figures for the latest year all seem to be 100%.Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: grahame on December 06, 2016, 11:53:03 Station comparator at http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/smr/ updated to include new data ... though the year on year ratio figures for the latest year all seem to be 100%.Fixed - thanks. Always an interesting exercise getting this stuff updated quickly when the data's released! Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: Adelante_CCT on December 06, 2016, 12:51:28 Looks like richwarwicker has been doing his bit for Coombe
Or is it next year's stats that will be extra inflated? ;) Title: ORR Station usage - the quieter places Post by: grahame on December 06, 2016, 14:29:36 And here are the usual culprits:
12 Shippea Hill 38 Reddish South 46 Pilning 48 Coombe 68 Barry Links 74 Denton 88 Stanlow & Thornton 98 Tees-Side Airport 100 Chapelton 116 Clifton 132 Sugar Loaf 134 Buckenham 138 Breich 162 Havenhouse 168 Golf Street 170 Kildonan 200 Kirton Lindsey 286 Thorpe Culvert 294 Scotscalder 296 Elton & Orston 296 Acklington I expect to see several of those grow out of the list in the forseaable future. There are other which I'm sure wouldn't appear under a more useful service plan should that be able to be justified. Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: Noggin on December 07, 2016, 10:38:02 Amazing stats, a credit to the industry that it is coping with such growth.
Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: JayMac on December 07, 2016, 10:52:32 Coping?
I wouldn't go that far! ::) Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: PhilWakely on December 07, 2016, 13:54:22 Just as a matter of interest, how exactly are the figures arrived at?
For instance, if a ticket states 'London Stations', or 'London Thameslink', how are these counted? Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: John R on December 07, 2016, 14:21:42 The methodology is set out in the report that accompanies the figures on the ORR website. As you've demonstrated by just one example, it's by no means simple, so worth a read if you are interested.
Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: IndustryInsider on December 07, 2016, 14:28:35 Interesting to see that every single station (except Finstock) on the Cotswold Line saw growth. Some, such as Hanborough and Charlbury, very good growth. Given that, according to some, people from out that way apparently drive to Warwick Parkway that might come as a surprise. Even more of a surprise is that according to those figures usage of Warwick Parkway actually decreased over the previous year. Similarly the opening of Oxford Parkway has appeared to have little impact on the surrounding stations, though it is of course early days.
Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: didcotdean on December 07, 2016, 15:08:34 Just noticed today that Chiltern sent out a tweet earlier today that the car park at Oxford Parkway was full and you should use the adjacent P&R one instead. Maybe it is truly suppressed demand ...
Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: LiskeardRich on December 07, 2016, 17:27:22 Looks like richwarwicker has been doing his bit for Coombe Or is it next year's stats that will be extra inflated? ;) Assuming April to March, nothing to do with me in these figures. I only got the keys to here on 24/3 and would have been a couple of weeks later before I settled into doing anything. My first coombe ticket is dated 14/5/16. I would also suggest ticketing for Coombe Junction is artificially low, 75% of my 12 tickets I've saved for Coombe have been purchased at Liskeard on arrival from the booking office. I imagine many will just walk past. The 3 that were sold on board, one set was a return to Looe (on the return leg I purchased an overdistance excess to Liskeard so unsure how that reports) and the other was a well known local guard who became a little excited to sell her first Coombe ticket. General observation is the guard goes and sits in the back cab and doesn't re-emerge. However I suspect the ticket machine may have been left in the front cab as the guard normally doesn't have it with them. I guess the guard cant retrieve once the driver is in the other end? I also suspect many get a free ride as a result of my observations. One particular day 6 passengers boarded at Coombe, the other 5 were all on Ride Cornwall tickets. Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: grahame on December 07, 2016, 22:06:21 I would also suggest ticketing for Coombe Junction is artificially ... That's a massive problem with these data sets. The consultants put a lot of work in to apportionments, but with the best will in the world the figures remain (as they are described) as estimates. Lelant is another huge growth station, but look at the St Ives lines as a whole, and read the text, and the changes are more due to the redistribution of journeys than a fourfold change on the ground. And these shiftings of passengers around disproportionally register with the lesser station in the exchange. As well as RickWarwicker's comments about unticketed journeys, I note that long distance journeys from Coombe often cost the same as long distance journeys from Liskeard to the same destination. Imagine I live halfway between Coombe and Liskeard. Walk down to Coombe to start my journey if it coincides with a rain calling - but can I buy my ticket on the train, and if not do I buy a Liskeard one (same price anyway) or a Coombe return even if on my return I'm not going to be connecting to Coombe. Whatever I do, I'm distorting figures ... Title: Re: 6th December 2016 Post by: John R on December 07, 2016, 22:46:37 Indeed, and they do seem to be putting a lot more effort in and using local knowledge to identify and adjust for such instances. Another local example is that season tickets from Didcot and Oxford to London are in many cases the same price. Thus many travelling from Didcot buy a ticket from Oxford, as it enables them to travel into Oxford for free at the weekend, so an appropriate reduction in Oxford and increase in Didcot travel has been made.
I wonder how long before they adjust Didcot downwards for "Didcot splits"! And my season is split at Chippenham (thanks Ollie!), so that overstates entries and exits there by around 1,000. This page is printed from the "Coffee Shop" forum at http://gwr.passenger.chat which is provided by a customer of Great Western Railway. Views expressed are those of the individual posters concerned. Visit www.gwr.com for the official Great Western Railway website. Please contact the administrators of this site if you feel that content provided contravenes our posting rules ( see http://railcustomer.info/1761 ). The forum is hosted by Well House Consultants - http://www.wellho.net |