Great Western Coffee Shop

All across the Great Western territory => Looking forward - the next 5, 10 and 20 years => Topic started by: grahame on November 25, 2015, 16:44:51



Title: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: grahame on November 25, 2015, 16:44:51
http://www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk/news/largest-investment-in-railways-since-victorian-times-will-continue?

Quote
Sir Peter Hendy today published his review into Network Rail^s five-year funding programme to 2019. Sir Peter has concluded that the majority of the programme can go ahead as planned with extra investment generated primarily from the sale of non-core railway assets.

Announcing the conclusions of his review, Sir Peter Hendy CBE, chairman of Network Rail, said: ^Passengers and businesses are already benefitting from the largest investment by Government in our railways since Victorian times and that will continue.

^The extra investment secures a Railway Upgrade Plan that delivers better stations, faster, more frequent and longer trains and a safer and more reliable railway for millions of passengers and businesses. 

^Working closely with the Department for Transport we have ensured that no infrastructure project has been cancelled and the bulk of the investment programme will be delivered by March 2019.

"Some projects will cost more and take longer than originally expected but we will see the job through to deliver better journeys for passengers.  My review has clearly found that the original plan was unrealistic and undeliverable.

"This new Railway Upgrade Plan is a more robust and deliverable plan but it is not without its own risks and challenges which Network Rail will work tirelessly to address."

Sir Peter^s 44-page report gives an overview of the different parts of the country and what will be delivered. An eight-week consultation by the DfT on the report^s findings will start in early December.

ENDS

Notes to editors:

In June, Sir Peter Hendy CBE was appointed as the new chairman of Network Rail by the Secretary of State for Transport. He was tasked with reviewing Network Rail^s CP5 (Control Period 5, 2014-19) enhancement portfolio which had seen some significant cost and timescale pressures.
Sir Peter has now concluded a thorough review of the enhancement programme, and details what can be delivered in a timely and affordable way. The report can be found at www.networkrail.co.uk/hendy-review/ .
The extra investment has / will come from Network Rail realising ^1.8bn from the sale of some of its extensive property portfolio. The Government has also been able to increase the limit on Network Rail^s Government borrowing by a further ^700 million . The planned sale of assets will also allow Network Rail to focus on its core task of running the railways
The Hendy review looked at Network Rail^s Railway Upgrade Plan for England and Wales.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: grahame on November 25, 2015, 16:45:45
NOTE - Link in report to actual review does not (yet?) work. I understand:

[deleted] - inaccurate!

Let's see how accurate that is  ;D


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: Richard Fairhurst on November 25, 2015, 16:48:54
There's a capitalisation error in the link in the press release. Correct link appears to be http://www.networkrail.co.uk/Hendy-review/ (cap H).


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: stuving on November 25, 2015, 16:57:11
This download link (http://cdn.prgloo.com/media/download/0b15cab5ccbc4e96af6c9182b97b6ef0) seems to work too.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: IndustryInsider on November 25, 2015, 17:14:42
NOTE - Link in report to actual review does not (yet?) work. I understand:

All train to be bimodes
Cardff 2019
Temple Meads 2020
Oxford later
no mention of when for Newbury

Let's see how accurate that is  ;D

I'll give you a 1 out of 10, Graham  ;)

Looks like the Newbury and Oxford spurs have not faced the CP5 chop as many predicted, but will be delivered by the end of 2018 along with Didcot to Bristol/Cardiff.  As expected this is a delay on the original timescales, and is about a year later than Paddington to Didcot towards the end of 2017.  Cardiff to Swansea does slip into CP6.

Bi-modes will, I expect, initially be used on services from Paddington towards both the North and South Cotswold routes, including PAD-OXF fast services, as the route characteristics will suit them.  I reckon other services to Bristol/Cardiff will then slowly go over to Bi-mode's, but some HSTs will continue to operate them, possibly until the end of 2018.  I can see a Didcot to Oxford shuttle DMU service operating for around a year, feeding into a largely EMU Thames Valley service from Didcot via Reading to Paddington from the end of 2017.  I can see the hourly Turbo service from Paddington to Bedwyn continuing until Newbury gets finished in at the end of 2018.  Let's see how accurate that is ;D


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: Thatcham Crossing on November 25, 2015, 17:45:59
Well, the rail users of Kintbury, Hungerford and Bedwyn might be happy if no-one else is!


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: Timmer on November 25, 2015, 17:54:28
My reading of this is not much has changed, just running a bit late and over budget.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: IndustryInsider on November 25, 2015, 18:04:17
Yes, nowhere near as bad as some of the merchants of doom were predicting.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: stuving on November 25, 2015, 18:15:21
The timetable says the EMU cascade still starts next year, which it can as the EMUs to Hayes & Harlington need no new wires at all. But that leads to a minimal DMU cascade; it's the next few flips of the Chinese puzzle that matter. And I'm not so sure what and when they will be now.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: stuving on November 25, 2015, 18:24:54
And here's the other report, by Dame Colette Bowe (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/bowe-review-into-the-planning-of-network-rails-enhancements-programme-2014-to-2019), into what went wrong with the planning process. I'm guessing it doesn't need a topic of its own.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: grahame on November 25, 2015, 22:14:48
A roundup of this evening's press:

Network Rail sell-off to fund upgrades
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34926322

Delays to Cardiff-Swansea electrification unacceptable ^ Eluned Parrott
http://www.welshlibdems.wales/delays_to_cardiff_swansea_electrification_unacceptable_eluned_parrott?

Swansea to Cardiff rail electrification 'in jeopardy' as delay in project confirmed
http://www.southwales-eveningpost.co.uk/Swansea-Cardiff-rail-electrification-jeopardy/story-28242671-detail/story.html?

Rail electrification on South Wales mainline could be delayed to 2024
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/rail-electrification-south-wales-mainline-10503465?

Autumn Statement 2015: Cost of HS2 rises to more than ^55bn
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/autumn-statement/12017366/Autumn-Statement-2015-Cost-of-HS2-rises-to-more-than-55bn.html

Tories guilty of burying bad news on rail electrification delay
https://www.partyof.wales/news/2015/11/25/tories-guilty-of-burying-bad-news-on-rail-electrification-delay/?


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: grahame on November 26, 2015, 06:50:34
Letter from the Transport Secretary to accept the Hendy report

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/479969/hendy-response-letter.pdf



Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: grahame on November 26, 2015, 06:56:21
I can't help feeling that if the report had come out on any other day than the day of the Autumn Statement, the press would be making much more of it ... as it is, it feels rather as if it's drowned out by other news.   Perhaps that's not unintended.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: stuving on November 26, 2015, 09:39:40
I can't help feeling that if the report had come out on any other day than the day of the Autumn Statement, the press would be making much more of it ... as it is, it feels rather as if it's drowned out by other news.   Perhaps that's not unintended.

I thought the linkage between the two had been trailed for a while, and for obvious reasons. If the Hendy report came out alone, it would be subject to funding decisions and so would give scope for all manner of lurid speculation about what would never happen. And it's hard to see how the financial settlement could include any money for this (from a base of a big revenue cut) if this report didn't arrive first.

We still don't have any clarity on whether the SET deliveries are to be rescheduled, or the order modified. The BBC locally were splashing a headline yesterday that all the trains (in context, the GW SET order) would have diesel engines - whatever than means. That's not on the web site.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: paul7575 on November 26, 2015, 09:44:45
The BBC locally were splashing a headline yesterday that all the trains (in context, the GW SET order) would have diesel engines - whatever than means. That's not on the web site.

If I heard it correctly, having said that all SETs would be bi-mode, the reporter  then went on to ask if the delays meant all the new trains would be unusable for four years.  I couldn't follow his logic...

Paul


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: Timmer on November 26, 2015, 09:54:13
We still don't have any clarity on whether the SET deliveries are to be rescheduled, or the order modified. The BBC locally were splashing a headline yesterday that all the trains (in context, the GW SET order) would have diesel engines - whatever than means. That's not on the web site.
Yes I heard that mentioned on BBC South Today last evening. Could it be a decision based on making the entire 9 car fleet usuable to the SW as well? With the 9 car fleet for the SW having engines fitted, adding them to the all electric 9 cars for Bristol/South Wales may not cost as much but gives GWR full fleet flexability when it comes to diagramming the fleet.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: IndustryInsider on November 26, 2015, 10:01:03
Well as it stands the Swansea services will need to be operated by bi-modes for several years after their introduction, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the order adjusted so that some 9-car bi-modes will be provided - as we know the engines can removed as and when required.



Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: gwr2006 on November 26, 2015, 10:52:34
Well as it stands the Swansea services will need to be operated by bi-modes for several years after their introduction, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the order adjusted so that some 9-car bi-modes will be provided - as we know the engines can removed as and when required.

The other alternative is to operate electric 801/0s no further than Cardiff and have either a connecting Cardiff-Swansea diesel shuttle and/or find a way to extend the South Coast-Cardiff service to Swansea to provide for onward travel. That must be a better short-term solution than fitting (and subsequently removing) 5 engines on each of the 21 9-car 801/0s which would be needed for fleet flexibility.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: Rhydgaled on November 26, 2015, 11:10:37
Swansea to Cardiff rail electrification 'in jeopardy' as delay in project confirmed
http://www.southwales-eveningpost.co.uk/Swansea-Cardiff-rail-electrification-jeopardy/story-28242671-detail/story.html?

Rail electrification on South Wales mainline could be delayed to 2024
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/rail-electrification-south-wales-mainline-10503465?
I'm guessing this all comes from the chart on page 27 (28 of the PDF) of the Hendy report (which is the only part of it I've looked at so far). I don't understand why the South Wales Evening Post think this puts the electrification beyond Cardiff in jeopardy, the fact it was included there at all made me breathe a sigh of releif that it wouldn't be scrapped. Yes we have to wait to CP6, but its there. More worrying is that the ValleyLines electrification isn't there (because it is subject to a seperate review by the Welsh Government).

As for the question of when the wires will be ready, the chart seems quite vauge. The 'story' that Swansea might not be wired until 2024 is one interpretation, that anything in a box could happen at anytime throughout the box. However, the other way of looking at it is that the items are positioned differently within each box, in which case the Swansea scheme is definiately scheduled nearer the begining of CP6 than the end.

Well as it stands the Swansea services will need to be operated by bi-modes for several years after their introduction, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the order adjusted so that some 9-car bi-modes will be provided - as we know the engines can removed as and when required.

The other alternative is to operate electric 801/0s no further than Cardiff and have either a connecting Cardiff-Swansea diesel shuttle and/or find a way to extend the South Coast-Cardiff service to Swansea to provide for onward travel. That must be a better short-term solution than fitting (and subsequently removing) 5 engines on each of the 21 9-car 801/0s which would be needed for fleet flexibility.
Or modify the order so that, say, half the 801s are instead delivered as 802s (the ones with larger fuel tanks and the engine software configured to allow full power). Alternatively, reform sets so that some 801s are 5-car and some 800s are 9-car, without buying as many extra engines as would be needed if all 801s became 800s, and use 801s only on Bristol and Cardiff services. Either way, 9-car bi-modes would be useful medium/long-term for diversions (eg. Wales via Gloucester when the Severn Tunnel is closed).


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: IndustryInsider on November 26, 2015, 11:15:35
That must be a better short-term solution than fitting (and subsequently removing) 5 engines on each of the 21 9-car 801/0s which would be needed for fleet flexibility.

Financially the best solution I would agree, but I very much doubt Network Rail, GWR and the Government would risk the negative headlines that removal of through London trains from Wales' second city (and sixth and eighth in Neath and Bridgend) would create.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: ellendune on November 26, 2015, 18:27:26
Letter from the Transport Secretary to accept the Hendy report
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/479969/hendy-response-letter.pdf

From the letter
Quote
The Chancellor's Spending Review, announced today, reaffirms this commitment, but both our organisations have had to make tough choices,
including your commitment to release ^1 .8 billion of investment through the sale of non-core and lower value assets. We have had to make up for the fact that successive governments have failed to invest the sums necessary to deliver the transport infrastructure our country needs. But we will provide the crucial links that allow people and businesses to prosper.

Does anyone know what these non-core and lower value assets are that NR is going to sell?


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: grahame on November 26, 2015, 19:26:14
Does anyone know what these non-core and lower value assets are that NR is going to sell?

I'm not even sure if that means non-core assets and also lower value assets, or (none-core and lower value) assets.  In other words - if something's none-core but has a high value, might it be sold?   What about something that is core, but with lower value?  And how are "core" and "value" defined anyway, and by whom?


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on November 26, 2015, 22:41:48
For clarity, I have revised / expanded the heading of this particular topic.  ;)


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: stuving on November 26, 2015, 22:53:03
Does anyone know what these non-core and lower value assets are that NR is going to sell?

I'm not even sure if that means non-core assets and also lower value assets, or (none-core and lower value) assets.  In other words - if something's none-core but has a high value, might it be sold?   What about something that is core, but with lower value?  And how are "core" and "value" defined anyway, and by whom?

If you wanted to raise ^1.8 billion, would you do it by selling assets of low or lower individual value? I suspect it means of lower value to the business, even if they might be considered core assets. They would need to be of higher value to someone else or selling them wouldn't be worthwhile. Of course any sale under duress, even partially, does tend to realise less than it might in other circumstances.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: Electric train on November 27, 2015, 18:40:45
Does anyone know what these non-core and lower value assets are that NR is going to sell?

At a personal guess ripe for picking most if not all Major Stations, most if not all of the letting space under railway arches (as one or two going concerns property letting agencies), the land that is owned and least to TOC for car parking, possibly even some of the bigger stations that are not a Major station.



Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: grahame on December 05, 2015, 18:11:52
Does anyone know what these non-core and lower value assets are that NR is going to sell?

I think we may have a hint of an answer ...

From The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/debt-laden-network-rail-plans-sale-of-power-lines-to-raise-2bn-a6761366.html)

Quote
Debt-laden Network Rail plans sale of power lines to raise ^2bn

Acccountants hired to look into deal that would release funds for core track work

[snip]

KPMG has six months to determine how a sale would best be structured. A likely deal is Network Rail^s distribution network being sold to a private investor, energy utility or National Grid, which would then have a guaranteed revenue stream from charging Network Rail for the use of those pylons and cables.

[snip]

Network Rail is also preparing to outsource its telecoms work, which includes passenger wi-fi and the transmission of signalling information to train drivers. An industry source said the bidding process for this work is ^in the wings^.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: stuving on December 05, 2015, 19:48:22
I did go through the Bowe report, if not thoroughly, to see what it contributes. As expected, it is primarily about the management and inter-departmental aspects of the CP5 programmes, and as such may be a useful guide to DfT. It obviously excludes all engineering aspects of the work, but even so it rather misses the point about how Network rail got into its hole.

For one thing is considers the whole of CP5, and does not really concentrate on the areas that went wrong. It does find some relevant programme issues, for example:

Quote
    Governance and Programme Management
4.39 Scheme immaturity should not of itself result in cost escalation and delays to the
    programme. But the lack of definition of schemes is symptomatic in my view of the
    shortcomings in the project, programme and portfolio management practices followed by
    both Network Rail and to a lesser extent by the Department. These include, in planning:
  ^ unclear scope definition, coupled with inconsistent change management. The
    Review has found evidence that scope changes were not always managed though
    formal processes, leading to scope creep, a cause of some of the cost escalation
    (and identified by Network Rail in its SBP as responsible for the majority of a ^300m
    increase in costs on Great Western between the HLOS and the SBP, see illustrative
    example 2);
  ^ inconsistent assurance of project management products, as reflected in the poor
    cost estimates used at Final Determination;
  ^ inconsistent understanding, management and in particular escalation of risk; and
  ^ the failure to recognise the full impact of schemes and to integrate projects into
    programmes.
But she does not go any further into the management practices that allowed such misleading estimates to be shown to the DfT and ORR. That last point is about inter-project interactions, like the GW electrification and the resignalling that is not being all done first, but extending to much bigger combinations of infrastructure, rolling stock, and franchising into "programmes".

It is true that Great Western Route Modernisation is used as an example, but its treatment is very brief. It ends with:
Quote
There was no effective mechanism for risks to be identified and escalated within Network Rail or the Department until a cross-industry programme board was instituted in early 2015.

If that's true, it's staggering for any engineering organisation, not just in this century. I suspect, however, that some project management methods, standard or not, were used to handle risk and uncertainty within NR. I could believe that, if those didn't match the way senior management felt they had to deal with the DfT, risk and uncertainty information might get "lost". But I might be wrong about that - and it would have been interesting to find out.

She also finds the reclassification to be very relevant, in that it removed NR's ability to borrow to fund overspends and worry about where the corresponding income would come from later. But nationalised industries used to be able to borrow - it's a matter of how they are directed by the department, not that status per se. And while averaging under- and overspends across a control period should work OK, does she really imagine there will be enough underspends to cover a ^2Bn hole? So being able to borrow to fund the overspend would (1) leave a future funding problem, and (2) not speed up delivery significantly. None of which issues are examined.


Title: Re: Network Rail - Reviews and Reports from Sir Peter Hendy and Dame Colette Bowe
Post by: Electric train on December 05, 2015, 20:24:48
Does anyone know what these non-core and lower value assets are that NR is going to sell?

I think we may have a hint of an answer ...

From The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/debt-laden-network-rail-plans-sale-of-power-lines-to-raise-2bn-a6761366.html)

Quote
Debt-laden Network Rail plans sale of power lines to raise ^2bn

Acccountants hired to look into deal that would release funds for core track work

[snip]

KPMG has six months to determine how a sale would best be structured. A likely deal is Network Rail^s distribution network being sold to a private investor, energy utility or National Grid, which would then have a guaranteed revenue stream from charging Network Rail for the use of those pylons and cables.

[snip]

Network Rail is also preparing to outsource its telecoms work, which includes passenger wi-fi and the transmission of signalling information to train drivers. An industry source said the bidding process for this work is ^in the wings^.

That'll be an interesting one, NR HV distribution network is not compliant with the electricity supply regs, the voltage regulation would be a problem to any other uses connected to and they certainly will not like the harmonics the rectifiers produce.

As for the telecoms NR has just spent the last 10 year rebuilding it own system because of the costs of renting circuits form external providers

But I am sure political dogma knows best  :-\



This page is printed from the "Coffee Shop" forum at http://gwr.passenger.chat which is provided by a customer of Great Western Railway. Views expressed are those of the individual posters concerned. Visit www.gwr.com for the official Great Western Railway website. Please contact the administrators of this site if you feel that content provided contravenes our posting rules ( see http://railcustomer.info/1761 ). The forum is hosted by Well House Consultants - http://www.wellho.net