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http://www.iea.org.uk/in-the-media/press-release/converting-commuter-railways-to-busways-could-save-passengers-40-in-fares (http://www.iea.org.uk/in-the-media/press-release/converting-commuter-railways-to-busways-could-save-passengers-40-in-fares)

They obviously haven't realised this is old news - the same nonsense (personal opinion alert!) has been peddled in the past by people and organisations such as John Redwood MP & the Institute of Directors. Perhaps the authors should pay a visit to Cambridge.

Authors are Paul Withrington of Transport Watch and  Dr Richard Wellings of IEA. 

From the press release:

They mentions the high conversion  cost, but does not say how high. He says they would want to end all subsidies to rail.

They suggest that apart form LU only 250,000 people commute into London by rail in the peak hour.

Their central theme is that busways would have greater capacity than rail.


He is obviously using some unconventional maths as by my calculation all those buses could only carry 11,250 people so each would have to do over 20 journeys in an hour to carry 250,000 people. They are therefore not going to transport people very far!

Does anyone know what the capacity is of a busway?

It could be surprisingly high.   I've only got "Cambridge experience" where you can often stand and not see a single vehicle in site either way - so they're nowhere near.  But then two come along together - very short headway indeed - just a few yards between them.   If that (few yards) headway was kept up between services ...

However, there would be a need to widen out / have parallel tracks at stops which would otherwise by the capacity limit, and at the end of the busway you would need a big terminal or have a severe problem if the vehicles went off onto existing roads.

His 150 coaches provide about the same capacity has 8 full and standing 12 car commuter trains.  So on approach to his hypothetical busy terminus you might need 3 times that on the busiest two track railways, or at major example such as Waterloo or London Bridge you need more like 1000 coaches per hour at headways to suit.  How long to unload a coach if they are arriving every few seconds?

Why do they re-release this rubbish every few years to a gullible press who seem to print any old rubbish if it comes under the letter head of an 'institute'.  Wasn't Witherington the expert who's evidence to the Evergreen 3 TWA enquiry was basically ridiculed?

Paul

Where also are these commuter railways into London that aren't also part of the wider network with longer distance services on them?

This sort of nonsense is recycled every decade or so. I seem to remember Sir Alfred Sherman wanting to concrete-over what is now the Chiltern line back in the 1980s. I wonder if the present secretary of state for transport might care to either endorse or rubbish these proposals.

Without any technology to ensure that safe headways are maintained, it can only be a matter of time before there is a rear-end collision. With such technology in place (and of course it does exist) I suspect that the headways will be signicantly more than 'a few yards'.