Great Western Coffee Shop

Can anyone shed any light on the apparent increase in ticket prices S.Wales > London which appears to be related to the new Summer timetable?

I've checked my usual weekly trip, booking with advance first tickets for the following journeys:

PAD > BGN 9th May d15.45 & BGN > PAD 12th May d8.01, total ticket price ^111.10

PAD > BGN 20th June d15.45 & BGN > PAD 23rd June d7.56, total ticket price ^212.80

Anyone know why there is such a huge difference in ticket prices? I've checked for various dates travelling at the same times and found a similar difference so I'm sure this can't be a simple supply & demand issue - the later journey is about as far in advance as tickets can be purchased so advance availability should be good & Standard class tickets have also jumped up for the same journeys, from ^80.60 to ^109.50. Prices are as of about 1pm today (10/4/2014).

Would be interested to know if anyone else has noticed this on other routes, if anyone has any information from FGW about planned or sanctioned fare increases or if this is a result of the way in which advance tickets are released for sale.


title changed to reflect question more accurately

Advance ticket prices aren't governed whatsoever & can be priced by the TOC at whatever level they think will sell.

There are 3 dates that ordinary fares can rise - Jan 2, second Sunday in May (which tends to be the summer timetable change) and September 20/21. Advances however can rise at any time, but I think there's a cost implication if they want to load fares at other than those three dates.

FGW do generally push up their Advance prices for the summer...

It seems odd as I have been doing that journey weekly since August 2012 and the advance prices (and passenger loadings) have been largely very stable in that period for the quoted trains, with a return advance first usually available for around ^100 if booked about 3-4 weeks in advance.

An increase on some advance tickets of nearly 100% for First and 40% in Standard frankly seems extortionate to me (even if they are freely able to do this without recourse to HM Gov or the regulator) and rather short sighted as I'm not sure it will help to fill seats. This in combination with the squeeze on 1st capacity & overall very average service means it's perhaps time to stop boosting FGW shareholder dividends & start getting better value from my road fund licence...

Interestingly, for the journeys quoted above, as you eluded to, the cheapest walk up prices have remained the same - the new advance prices are now pretty much equal to walk up prices, +/- a few ^, except on the periphery of the timetable.

Well, if everyone does as you allude to and takes to 4 wheels, they'll soon notice & drop them again....

It could well be related to the reduction of First Class accommodation. From what I understand from the new timetable reservations will only be possible based upon the new First Class provision of around 1.5 coaches. With less seats to sell I'd expect prices to go up.

I had considered that, but that would not explain the concurrent close to 40% increase in standard advance fares - with an increase in the number standard seats, logic would tell you that a drop in prices should be seen?! I may fire off an email to someone towards the top of the food chain at FGW to see if they can explain further as it is an immense percentage increase in these advance fares, especially when inflation is less than 2%...

It appears that the quoted fares are not "increases" but are the current higher-priced versions of advance fares. Presumably there is no quota for the cheaper advance fares on the dates queried.

Their website is advertising Advance tickets are available up until 25 June....

Note too we have a regularly updated topic here on the Coffee Shop on advance tickets here (http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=13628.0).

I agree, but my point is that these fares have largely been at a stable level for the last 18 months that I've been doing this trip each week, excluding an occasional peak here and there. PAX numbers appear to have also remained fairly steady also, although this is largely based on occupancy in Coach G.

However, there seems to have been a huge jump in fare prices from mid-May onwards in both standard & first regardless of travel day, with the exception of some trains at increasingly inconvenient times - the specific example provided was as it is my usual travel days & time.

I fail to see that there has been a sudden rise in demand from mid-May onwards that is sustained evenly throughout the timetable as far out as the last week in June, so my (rhetorical in this forum) question is what has happened to the quota of the cheaper off-peak advance fares that has in the past been consistently available on my chosen trains for the last 18 months up to about a week before travel date? In effect it seems this is some kind of increase by 'stealth'.

I plan to pose this question to FGW, but was interested to poll opinion here in case anyone else had noted similar issues on other journeys.

From May there is the potential of fewer first class seats as sets are converted. That may be a reason.

Advance prices aren't set in stone for any service...that'll be the answer you get.

Well done there ChrisB for pre-empting FGW's response.  ::)

I hope their response is a bit more customer friendly than, "Like it or lump it."

While not the increases quoted here, I believe the 10% discount for buying advance fares on FGW.co.uk ends in May.

I'd forgotten about the 10% on line discount ... until I went to the booking office to use some compensation vouchers I had!

There has been no notice of any fare increases and as such I suspect the super cheap advance quota (DBS/DCS/DDS/DES) haven't been released or more likely the lower advance fares have had a zero quota allocated to them.
The DLS/DKS/DHS/DFS/DAS maybe the only fare bands with allocated seats at the moment.

Edit:
The first journey details you mention on 9th May and 12th May are DDS and DCS ticket types.
The second journey details are DAS and DKS.

Could you explain what these ticket types are?

Unless it is simply a case of advance fare release being delayed, it seems there has been a sudden and marked change in their fare strategy on this route and at this time of day, so I have every intention of seeking an explanation about this from someone in a suitably informed position.

I don't think I would ever describe any of FGW tickets as 'super-cheap' at the times I travel!!

It's a very brave person who tries ;-) ... but you will find them all listed and with links to terms ad conditions at:

http://www.brfares.com/#!fares?orig=PAD&dest=BGN (http://www.brfares.com/#!fares?orig=PAD&dest=BGN)

London to Bridgend Singles ... there are over 40 different fares listed.  What the lost of fares won't tell you is what the allocation algorithms are.  And bear in mind that they don't show how you can get these tickets at a lower prices if you're lucky enough to be eligible for a rail card, or are a child or part of a group of 3 or 4 people.

P.S.  - I suspect that you know most of what's at http://twcrp.info/bestfares - our "getting the right fares" FAQ for the TransWilts line, but it ports quite well to elsewhere ... may be worth a look.

Edit to add P.S. and to fix link

You'd be very lucky to find out what the actual allocations to the ticket types listed are (Commercial sensitivity, apparently, you see). Ticket offices do not see how many seats are available, or not available, just that its available. It has been known for the availability to change in that split second between searching and attempting a reservation.


I would class the DES 1ST ADVANCE SINGLE at ^37.80 / ^40.60 as super cheap!!!

I've found the same thing on the route/times I travel.  Std class NTA->PAD on 0631 has been around ^31-^45 mark for years (recently ^37).  It is now ^75, or if I'm lucky ^55!  I also travel back on the 1945 from PAD and have noticed across the board increases in fares for STD and 1st advance ticket prices.  After putting up with a couple of months of driving back and forth to Tiverton Parkway at my own expense due to the disruption at Dawlish, it does seem a bit of a kick in the teeth!

After I thought about this I did wonder if a freedom of information request might reveal the advance ticket allocations (on balance a commercial argument for withholding this information doesn't make sense as FGW operate essentially in a monopoly position, partic on S.Wales to London routings) but I'm not sure how far the definition 'public organisation' reaches into the rail sector, although the fact the TOC's receive vast subsidies to run some services might be an influencing factor - in an ideal world I'd like to think I have a right to know where my tax contributions are going...!

The cheap advance tickets you mention as of mid-May only appear to be available on journeys either in the middle of the day or at a time when all the interesting inebriated people are out and about, the former sadly isn't an option when you're commuting to work and the latter really isn't a very pleasant way to end the week!

 The cheap advance tickets you mention as of mid-May only appear to be available on journeys either in the middle of the day or at a time when all the interesting inebriated people are out and about, the former sadly isn't an option when you're commuting to work
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Given the purpose of advance tickets is to fill seats that otherwise wouldn't be taken at higher fares, then I'm not sure FGW would be that happy if they thought many tickets were being used that way.

All TOCs, except East Coast which is currently publicly owned, are exempt from the provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. Though, even East Coast will not release details of Advance fares allocations due to commercial sensitivities. They have been asked in the past and such information has been withheld under Section 43(2) of the Freedom of Information Act.

One such request can be read at the following link:

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/tickets_3

Completely understand this, my issue is the fact that prices have suddenly jumped up in both first & standard (or should that be the number of advance fares allocated has fallen) when I fail to see that there has been a rapid rise in demand, especially when you consider that standard will have more seats available in the not too distant future...advance fares have been continuously available on the services I frequent for over 18 months, so why should this suddenly change?!

I think its well discussed on here the increases being seen across the rail network(s) over the last year or so? Not exactly surprising that availability of the cheapest fares is droping drastically

Also, FGW are taking full risk on their business having come out of Revenue Support

So the profit and shareholder dividend has to come solely from their own coffers and not the taxpayer. Equally any losses will be born solely by the company. Makes it much more understandable why they are heavily increasing the price/drastically reducing the availability of Advance Purchase fares.

It'll be interesting to see what they do with unregulated walk-up fares in January next year. They've pretty much kept these unregulated fares rises pegged to the same percentage as those that are regulated by Government in the past few years.

That sounds like the most plausible reason for this "increase" and is also a positive in that they'll also have to accept liability of the risk of people decamping to other forms of transport and the consequent loss of revenue. I wonder how many people will ultimately be put off using FGW as some of the increases are close to 100%...it all strikes me as taking advantage of a virtual monopoly position and also contrary to what a public service should provide, but there we go...!

What hasn't helped in this case is we are looking at, in the main, on-line fares.  Here there has been a double effect - the withdrawal of the 10% web discount and a rise in the base price  or change in the allocations.

It might have been better, from a marketing point of view, if the two had not happened at the same time.

I hadn't noticed that the 10% online discount had stopped, not that it made the slightest difference to the actual price paid when it first appeared (if my memory serves me right, each fare type went up a few pounds when the online 10% 'discount' first came along), so in effect that was just a means to disguise another 10% increase!

Perhaps FGW are worried lots of two together railcards are going to be used over the summer ?

I reckon the reason for the price increases severely limited availability on the cheaper advance tickets is mainly because of coming out of revenue support.

I know FGW have taken on a new fares implementation manager who maybe actually managing the quota much more closely now.

I've just checked a Thursday either side of the timetable change for 1st class fares from BRI to PAD, and there is currently plenty of availability on most off peak services at ^31.70. So on admittedly a limited survey, there wasn't any clear evidence of a change in quotas.

My standard class advance 0712 Didcot Parkway - Bath Spa appears to have jumped from ^8.80 to ^16.10, which I reckon is an 83% increase.

This is serious for me. When the 0742 jumped in price a year or 2 ago at least I had the option of the earlier service, although I have to get up at 5.30 to catch it. The only service before the 0712 is an hour earlier - a 4.30 start isn't practical!

Yes it is a big percentage increase, but it is from about 14p per mile to around 25p per mile for a very high speed service. That is still very cheap.  Consider that peak time Swindon to London Passengers are forced to pay 78p per mile you are getting a bargain.

How busy is this service usually? I'm guessing a service that arrives into Bath Spa at around 8am, and Bristol at 8.15 will be pretty heavily loaded. So it would appear commercial sense not to offer ultra cheap tickets designed to fill otherwise empty seats when there aren't any (or many).

Do you commute daily? If so, a weekly is ^103.

Well... yes and no. I get on at Reading (split ticket trick), where I would estimate 'my' coach C at less than 5% occupancy. A few people get on at Didcot, and a few more at Swindon, but I doubt it's more than 20% full.

A lot of people do get on at Chippenham, although like this morning the seat next to me isn't always taken. But they always have done, and I don't think the numbers have increased.


'Fraid not - just Monday/Wednesday/Friday. Tuesdays/Thursdays are holidays working-from-home days.

Regarding the value-for-money aspect - yes, I'm very grateful I head west rather than into London. But presumably the old price wasn't just plucked out of thin air; there must have been a reason for it. Anyway, I still don't think that gives them the (moral) right to almost double it overnight. Perhaps I'm biased :)

I think they're entitled to assess/amend/revise Advance prices as they see fit - a lot of pax take Advances as a fixed price ticket whereas they aren't really - as various folks have said - they're priced to fill 'empty' seats and thus a fresh assessment will always be done at intervals, while also looking at pence per mile pricing too.

I suspect that a full revision of Advance pricing is/has been underway since FGW started to take all risk on their services rather than splitting it with the DfT under revenue support. Whether pax will vote with their feet, we'll just have to await & see.

Comparing a few journeys using the new fares program (NFM 18) I see no changes in Advance Purchase fares at the various price points.

That doesn't mean to say quotas at each price point will remain the same though.

I wasn't sure whether you were talking about tickets for your journey(s), or my journey, or just in general.

However, today I get a response from FGW to a query I sent yesterday (the original automated reply warned it might take 7+ days!). They said the same thing, and suggested it was just down to increased demand.

Seems odd though - I've been buying the ^8.80 tickets 6 weeks in advance for over a year, yet now there are none available right up to the 3 month limit. So...


...I've asked whether the number of tickets available has changed.

Anyway, apologies to FGW for maligning them.