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All across the Great Western territory => Across the West => Topic started by: thetrout on October 26, 2013, 18:12:11



Title: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: thetrout on October 26, 2013, 18:12:11
Various sources quoting a "perfect storm" brewing in the Atlantic which if it hits the UK is said to be the worst storm in 20 years.

I'm not sure if this is scaremongering like the yearly "Worst winter in 100 years" articles in The Times and Daily Express papers. (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/436170/Worst-winter-for-decades-Record-breaking-snow-predicted-for-November) Which were recently played down by the MET Office (http://www.exeterexpressandecho.co.uk/Exeter-Met-Office-blasts-weather-reports-8220/story-19930718-detail/story.html)

However GreaterAnglia have put this on their website, which makes me think this severe weather alert has some substantial basis to it... Either that or GA are trying to offer their excuses :P   explanations in advance! The fact they have already permitted easement on Advance Tickets creates even more basis in my opinion!

http://www.greateranglia.co.uk/about-us/news/2013/10/customer-information (http://www.greateranglia.co.uk/about-us/news/2013/10/customer-information)

And here is an article from the Independent http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/worst-weather-since-the-great-storm-of-1987-uk-braces-for-hurricanestrength-winds-8901530.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/worst-weather-since-the-great-storm-of-1987-uk-braces-for-hurricanestrength-winds-8901530.html)

So... I must ask if FGW have any contingency plans. And do they involve a prompt EVAC of all trains from Cornwall to avoid stock being stuck in Cornwall... :P

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/11/30/article-2067767-0EFBF75800000578-460_634x385.jpg)
Photo from a Daily Wail Mail Article (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2067767/UK-weather-Driver-caught-floods-hit-Scotland-following-rain-gales-tornado.html)


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Electric train on October 26, 2013, 18:15:19
Advanced warnings were issued internally Friday, projects we asked to evaluate their planned work this weekend to a) reduce the risk to staff and b) risk of not completing works if the weather stops work mid way through


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ChrisB on October 26, 2013, 18:51:40
The Met Office don't issue joke alerts, so its definitely real.

Currently due to track sw-ne north of birmingham, with highest winds 60-80mph south & west of the low pressure

There will be disruption. Not much can be done, except to finish works as early as possible tomorrow night. Won't stop the trees falling thoigh


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: thetrout on October 26, 2013, 19:15:30
The Met Office don't issue joke alerts, so its definitely real.

Indeed. Interesting how FGW have not suggested abandoning non essential travel during this period. At least if they have, It's certainly not easy to find on their website!

Sadly this seems to be the case with FirstGroup in general. I am very much conscious of them publicising amended Bus Services in Frome less than 24 hours before a significant part of the route would be closed, missing one bus and having to get a train 30 minutes later snowballed into a delay of well over 2 hours by the time I got to Southend Victoria. No disrespect to the organisers, but that delay was completely avoidable had the information been advertised with reasonable notice. Less than 24 hours for PLANNED amendments is not in my opinion acceptable and I certainly was not best pleased.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: JayMac on October 26, 2013, 19:55:27
The Met Office don't issue joke alerts, so its definitely real.

Although on 15-16 October 1987, Michael Fish told us not to worry, as there wasn't a hurricane on the way. Telling us it would just be a bit windy, with the worst of it over Spain and France.  ::) ;) ;D

I heard several announcements at stations in the west and south west today, warning that there was likely to be disruption on Monday and to check before travelling.

I'm not ignoring the warnings. Hatches have been battened.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: anthony215 on October 26, 2013, 19:56:28
Seems most of the storm will have cleared South Wales by the time I got to work on monday although I will be out delivery shopping to peoples doorsteps in terrible weather.

I think I am going to look terrible by the time I get back home at 10pm on monday night.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: John R on October 26, 2013, 19:59:03
The Met Office don't issue joke alerts, so its definitely real.

Indeed. Interesting how FGW have not suggested abandoning non essential travel during this period. At least if they have, It's certainly not easy to find on their website!

Sadly this seems to be the case with FirstGroup in general. I am very much conscious of them publicising amended Bus Services in Frome less than 24 hours before a significant part of the route would be closed, missing one bus and having to get a train 30 minutes later snowballed into a delay of well over 2 hours by the time I got to Southend Victoria. No disrespect to the organisers, but that delay was completely avoidable had the information been advertised with reasonable notice. Less than 24 hours for PLANNED amendments is not in my opinion acceptable and I certainly was not best pleased.

First Capital Connect have this on their website, so clearly some areas of First Group are better than you're suggesting.

Major disruption
Severe weather forecast for Sunday night and Monday

High winds and heavy rain are forecast across the South East of England on Sunday night and Monday morning.

Services are expected to be severely disrupted and may be suspended on some routes. We are expecting to have to operate a revised timetable with fewer and slower services. We advise you not to travel if your journey isn't essential.

Please take extra care if you are travelling.

If we are required to implement a revised timetable or if services are disrupted, we will advise you here. We strongly advise you to check before travelling.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Timmer on October 26, 2013, 20:45:33
Link to the page on National Rail Enquiries website where details are being gathered regarding service changes:
http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/60152.aspx

East Coast have already posted a revised timetable for Monday. I wouldn't have been too chuffed to have turned up at King's Cross for the 1200 Highland Chieftain service to Inverness only to find it had left an hour earlier! Hope those who are booked on this service going North of Edinburgh check before setting out.

Nothing on the FGW website (sigh) which will be one of the worst affected TOCs if all goes according to the forecast.

SWT put this up on their website a couple of days ago: http://www.southwesttrains.co.uk/alerts.aspx


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ellendune on October 26, 2013, 20:54:13
Nothing on the FGW website (sigh) which will be one of the worst affected TOCs if all goes according to the forecast.

Looking at the forecast gust speeds, although in the far south west the forecast is bad, the worst is along the South Coast. So East of Dawlish FGW is perhaps less badly affected than SWT, Southern and South East.  Greater Anglian and East Coast are obviously anticipating problems with overhead wires.

For those in Cornwall and West Devon this will be disruptive it may not be as bad for the rest of FGW (which is most people - sorry west Devon and Cornwall)


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: bobm on October 26, 2013, 21:19:20
Hmmm.. going to South Devon tomorrow and returning on Monday - with my train set to pass the seawall around hightide on Monday lunchtime.

Still I got there last week despite lightening strikes so we will see!


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: onthecushions on October 26, 2013, 22:09:28

IIRC, our Region (InterCity Great Western and Thames and Chiltern) did quite well in the storm of 1987.

The lack of modernisation (such as overhead wires or bits of modernised stations that could become airborne) seemed to make for a robust system.

I seem to remember a 60mph limit, (virtually all the then 1950's DMU's could do), lots of delays but travellers reaching their destination eventually.

Is your journey really necessary (on Monday)?

Good Luck,

OTC


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on October 26, 2013, 22:14:41
Still I got there last week despite lightening strikes so we will see!

Hmm.  Apparently, Bob Crow is still trying to arrange lightning strikes ...  ;) :D ;D


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Timmer on October 27, 2013, 08:32:29
Starting to get reports of a possible downgrade to the forecast of the forthcoming storm so maybe FGW knew something that others didn't hence not putting anything about severe weather on their website  ;)

Before anyone thinks I am saying there won't be problems I am not. Still expecting quite a wild night/first part of the morning which could bring disruption to parts of the network but nothing as severe as the media have been ramping up over the past few days.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Timmer on October 27, 2013, 12:01:15
Latest from the Met office is for the storm to pass over more quickly than first thought overnight but still pack a punch with some strong winds expected.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: didcotdean on October 27, 2013, 12:09:56
More hysterical parts of the media have been portraying it as comparable with 1987 or 1990, whereas the predictions put it currently more at the same level as three lesser storms we have had in the last ten years. The low has not been deepening quite as quickly and hence the worst of the winds may turn out to be in the east of England rather than the west (and then in Denmark and Germany). So precautions for the ECML may not be far of the mark. Still plenty of time for things to change though - and there are already early signs in the forecast of another storm for next weekend, potentially of comparable size.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ChrisB on October 27, 2013, 12:18:27
The Met Office don't issue joke alerts, so its definitely real.

Although on 15-16 October 1987, Michael Fish told us not to worry, as there wasn't a hurricane on the way. Telling us it would just be a bit windy, with the worst of it over Spain and France.  ::) ;) ;D

There are a couple of videos on the BBC News website that explain how this was got wrong - the computer they had then was nowhere near as powerful as those these days, nor was it fed with anything like the data that is available now.

All that linked with a change in direction a couple of hours *after* Fish's broadcast (remember he was on a lunchtime the day before!). Fish's forecast was correct at the time he made it.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: bobm on October 27, 2013, 12:52:25
From FGW Website

Quote
Current weather forecasts indicate that there will be severe adverse weather, overnight from Sunday 27th October until mid-day on Monday 28th October. As well as rain, very strong wind speeds have been projected.

It is our key priority to run a safe railway, therefore there may be a requirement to run trains at reduced speeds for all or part of the journey.

If you are travelling with First Great Western later this evening or tomorrow morning, we would ask that you allow for an extended journey time, and that you check for current train running information on our JourneyCheck pages before starting your journey.
 
Further details of how journeys will be affected will be available later this afternoon once the weather forecasts have been updated. We will make this information available through our website once the situation becomes clearer.

Please follow us on Twitter @FGW for real time updates and your questions answered.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ChrisB on October 27, 2013, 12:57:37
Might be 'interesting' on the sleepers tonight....


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: AMLAG on October 27, 2013, 14:06:11
At least FGW don't yet have to worry too much about  o/h electric wires etc.!


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ChrisB on October 27, 2013, 14:17:01
There's been a livecam set up overlooking the sea & rails @ Dawlish

http://www.livestream.com/rcdawlish

And a tree is down already in Pangbourne cutting power to over 1,000 dwellings.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: bobm on October 27, 2013, 14:19:27
There's been a livecam set up overlooking the sea & rails @ Dawlish

http://www.livestream.com/rcdawlish


Indeed - it has been discussed here - http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=11409.0


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: bobm on October 27, 2013, 15:10:56
BBC reporting advice and changes from both SWT and Southern

Quote
South West Trains has advised people not to travel. It said it would operate a "significantly reduced timetable" and some trains would run at reduced speeds.

Southern said its services - including the Gatwick Express - might not start until 9am or 10am on Monday, a move designed to "give Network Rail the chance to clear the tracks". It will also run fewer trains than usual.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ChrisB on October 27, 2013, 15:12:58
SWT "Majority of services not expected to run until at least 0800"


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: JayMac on October 27, 2013, 15:22:21
At least FGW don't yet have to worry too much about  o/h electric wires etc.!

Should wires come down between Paddington and Airport Junction then FGW can be affected quite badly.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: bobm on October 27, 2013, 15:47:05
FGW are saying on Twitter that the down sleeper will only run as far as Plymouth.   Nothing on Journeycheck as yet.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: anthony215 on October 27, 2013, 16:16:25
Perhaps FGW plan to bus the passengers to Exeter and get them to London using the other sleeper set coming from London  which could be terminated at Exeter St Davids if the line through Dawlish is closed.

Although Network could perhaps say no to any trains running until daylight if the weather down the south west is pretty bad


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: bobm on October 27, 2013, 16:19:52
FGW accepting tickets dated for tomorrow (Monday) today for people wanting to travel earlier.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ChrisB on October 27, 2013, 16:27:45
Looks as though FGW are having a big pow-wow at 1700 re tomorrow, according to their tweets

Quote
james linley (@jameslinley1)

27/10/2013 15:29

@Burtshire @FGW @D_isforDanger All plans being discussed at 1700. Suggest peeps check FGW.co.uk after 1800

James Linley runs the ICC public info feeds


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Brucey on October 27, 2013, 16:41:23
South West Trains have announced no service on any routes before 0800, then an amended "snow plan" timetable for the rest of the day with a network-wide 50mph speed limit: http://www.southwesttrains.co.uk/alerts.aspx


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: bobm on October 27, 2013, 17:10:40

James Linley runs the ICC public info feeds


ICC?


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Timmer on October 27, 2013, 17:23:12
No London Underground until 9am.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Brucey on October 27, 2013, 17:27:23
No London Underground until 9am.
Is this on all lines?  There are no details on the TfL website.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: anthony215 on October 27, 2013, 17:30:20
The only disruption to TFL services was the London Overground network according to other forums.

FCC have annouced a shutdown at midnight tonight


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Timmer on October 27, 2013, 17:34:54
Apologies. Overground not Underground.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ChrisB on October 27, 2013, 17:42:19
Integrated Control Centre. Should be in the Glossary...


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: bobm on October 27, 2013, 17:48:47
FGW are saying on Twitter that the down sleeper will only run as far as Plymouth.   Nothing on Journeycheck as yet.

FGW Twitter now saying they made a mistake - sleeper running through.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on October 27, 2013, 19:27:14
Integrated Control Centre. Should be in the Glossary...

Assuming that you actually meant to refer to our 'acronyms and abbreviations (http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/acronyms.html)' page, ChrisB - yes, it is now.  ;)


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: TaplowGreen on October 27, 2013, 19:32:53
Is there any idea when a decision will be made on an amended timetable for FGW tomorrow? Most other Operators seem to be publishing details whereas FGW are just saying there "may" be an amended timetable.....presumably there must be a time by which they'd have to decide and release the details? I'm an early bird so could do with knowing!!!  :-\


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ellendune on October 27, 2013, 19:42:16
Is there any idea when a decision will be made on an amended timetable for FGW tomorrow? Most other Operators seem to be publishing details whereas FGW are just saying there "may" be an amended timetable.....presumably there must be a time by which they'd have to decide and release the details? I'm an early bird so could do with knowing!!!  :-\

The website says they will publish something by 20:00 hrs.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: TaplowGreen on October 27, 2013, 20:11:37
An amended First Great Western service will run until approximately 10:00.

A reduced service of 1 train per hour will run between London Paddington and Swansea and between London Paddington and Bristol Temple Meads. The will run with extended journey times of up to 60

Trains that run between London Paddington and Oxford will not run. Trains that run to / from Worcester or Hereford should be used if travelling to Oxford. Train times will be extended by up to 35 minutes

A reduced service will run between London Paddington and the West of England, with extended journey times up to 70 minutes.

Trains between London Paddington and Cheltenham Spa will run but may be amended to run between Swindon and Cheltenham Spa only. Trains times may be extended by up to 35 minutes.

Bedwyn services will run between Reading and Bedwyn only.

Trains will not run between Brighton and Portsmouth.

....................so what about local Paddington-Reading services???  (This was from the NR website by the way, still nothing on FGW's except an assurance that details will be available by 2000 tonight)  ???


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Chris from Nailsea on October 27, 2013, 20:20:11
For the record, the First Great Western website showed this at 20:19 this evening:

Quote
Severe Weather Warning Monday 28th October

Current weather forecasts indicate that there will be severe adverse weather, overnight from midnight on Sunday 27th October until mid-day on Monday 28th October.  As well as rain, very strong wind speeds have been projected.

There will be a requirement to run trains at reduced speeds for all or part of the journey and some routes will have a reduced train service.

We are planning on running trains on all lines, with the exception of the route between Guildford and Gatwick which is suspended until at least 09:00.

Please continue to check this website as full details of alterations will be published by 20:00 this evening.

Please follow us on Twitter @FGW for real time updates and your questions answered.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: TaplowGreen on October 27, 2013, 20:29:09
...............so NR website is ahead of FGW's own?


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Southern Stag on October 27, 2013, 20:52:24
....................so what about local Paddington-Reading services???  (This was from the NR website by the way, still nothing on FGW's except an assurance that details will be available by 2000 tonight)  ???
Local services between London, Reading and Oxford are expected to run as normal. There is a blanket 50mph speed restriction across much of the FGW network tomorrow morning which will cause severe delays to fast services but should have only a limited impact upon stopping services.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: johoare on October 27, 2013, 21:21:32
FGW site now says revised timetable will be on there by 22.00 tonight not 20.00... Which is good really as they were directing people to Twitter for "realtime" updates who were in turn directing people back to FGW site.. It passes the time I guess  ::) ::) ;D


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ellendune on October 27, 2013, 21:51:37
Detailed information now available http://www.firstgreatwestern.co.uk/TravelInfo/Severe-Weather-Warning-27-28-October (http://www.firstgreatwestern.co.uk/TravelInfo/Severe-Weather-Warning-27-28-October)





Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: TonyK on October 27, 2013, 22:53:42
...............so NR website is ahead of FGW's own?

Looking at FGW's twitter stream and filling in some gaps, I reckon FGW's timetable is based on orders given to it by NR for safety procedures and speed limits. So they could be the chicken following the egg (or is it...?)

I've had a ;look at some aviation notices. The forecast issued 22.20 for Bristol airport talks of winds of 20 knots, gusting to 35Kt, until 1am. Then until 4am, heavy rain with 25Kt, gusting 45Kt. Then, with a probability of 40% (to an airman, this means take it seriously), 38Kt gusting 70 Kt can be expected until 6am, when things start to calm down a bit. 70 Knots is over 80mph.. This is actually a moderation of what was forecast earlier, so we may well miss the worst. Brize Norton has lower wind speeds for the same times (for which my daughter will be thankful, as she starts work there at 11pm tonight), and Heathrow is similar.

I've battened down for the night, and poured a cup of Earl Grey.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: bobm on October 27, 2013, 23:02:07
There are rolling speed restrictions as the storm is predicted to cross the country.

Midnight to 05:00 50mph between Penzance and Taunton
01:00 to 08:00 50mph for the central area (Taunton, Cheltenham, Swindon and Westbury)
05:00 to 10:00 50mph for the east (Swindon, Oxford, Westbury to Paddington)

No speed restrictions north of Oxford or South Wales.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: LiskeardRich on October 28, 2013, 06:40:50
Pirate fm reporting long delays on the trains as a train has hit a fallen tree near Ivybridge.

Highest windspeed recorded reported at 107mph on st martins, isles of Scilly.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Electric train on October 28, 2013, 06:56:50
High winds just hitting the TV area now.   Although the Marlow branch seems to be running a normal service I have decided to go to work later in the morning


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: JayMac on October 28, 2013, 07:06:00
Pirate fm reporting long delays on the trains as a train has hit a fallen tree near Ivybridge. 

This was an empty CrossCountry Voyager en route from Laira depot to Paignton to form the 0702 to Manchester Piccadilly. That service is now starting at Birmingham New Street.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: bobm on October 28, 2013, 07:42:42
FGW are saying on their website the wind speeds overnight were not as high as predicted.

There are a number of trees down - including the Marlow Branch now Electric Train - but FGW have reinstated some of their cancelled services.

The weekend engineering work west of Bedwyn has over-run meaning at least one diversion via Melksham.

It seems Journeycheck has been unable to cope with the number of people trying to view it. This in turn has affected our cancellation map at the top of the page.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: JayMac on October 28, 2013, 08:05:21
It seems Chiltern Railway were a little over-confident. At 0330 this morning they said:

Quote
Storm - 3.30am Update

Speed restrictions that would have caused widespread disruption on the Chiltern line
have been removed. This makes it easier for us to run as near to a normal service as possible on Monday 28th October.

Trains are planned to run as normal.

At 0715 this morning they said:

Quote
We currently have severe disruption on all our lines due to trees on the line. Please check our website for more information.

Checking the website just now and the warning panel is blank and their 'Travel Updates' box has the message 'Too many connections'.  ::)

So, those early commuters who set out based on the earlier message are going to be somewhat miffed now that Chiltern have been affected quite badly.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: TaplowGreen on October 28, 2013, 08:19:00
Hopeless trying to get onto NR's Journeychecker this morning and finally got onto FGW at about the 7th attempt - there seems little point referring people to websites for information/before setting out which don't have the capacity to cope when they are really needed - very frustrating.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: grahame on October 28, 2013, 09:13:44
Hopeless trying to get onto NR's Journeychecker this morning and finally got onto FGW at about the 7th attempt - there seems little point referring people to websites for information/before setting out which don't have the capacity to cope when they are really needed - very frustrating.

<advert>They should get me to train them ... I'll be talking 1000:1 scaling at busy times over the next 3 days, and fallbacks to cached data which may (shock, horror) be between 120 and 300 seconds out of date.</advert>



Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Brucey on October 28, 2013, 09:18:29
SWT are reporting 29 fallen trees across their network.

All Chiltern services are currently suspended.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: didcotdean on October 28, 2013, 09:24:12
The Met Office have been congratulating themselves on their forecast being 'on the money', and what transpired was pretty much what was predicted around noon yesterday. This didn't stop an interviewer goading them this morning that they had overdone it, when it was elements in the media that built it up, including using an invented Biblical name for it. Not much more than a routine winter storm really, more damage because it went over populated areas, and trees are still in leaf.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ChrisB on October 28, 2013, 12:02:20
Chiltern commenced most services around 1115 with delays for the rest of the day. 18 trees down across their route.

Early trains did get through, including the first (0515) from Birmingham - I was on it. held up in the Denham/Ruislips with trees down (one resting on a down train) finally arriving 42 late. Services suspended shortly afterwards owing to arriving trains at Marylebone not being able to leave again owing to that 'resting' tree.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: mathmo on October 28, 2013, 13:32:48
Stopping services didn't seem to be doing too badly by 10am but now FGW have cancelled all stops on Oxford stoppers before Reading, leaving Langley and Iver with no trains.  Does anyone know why this is?  I'm worried I won't be able to get home tonight!


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: IndustryInsider on October 28, 2013, 13:45:06
Stopping services didn't seem to be doing too badly by 10am but now FGW have cancelled all stops on Oxford stoppers before Reading, leaving Langley and Iver with no trains.  Does anyone know why this is?  I'm worried I won't be able to get home tonight!

When that happens they normally stop the Paddington<>Reading stopping trains (or at least one of the two that operate per hour) at Langley and Iver instead?


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: BerkshireBugsy on October 28, 2013, 16:20:13
I have to say my journey in from Thatcham (THA) to London Paddington this Monday morning was relatively uneventful.

My local services left THA bang on time at 0547 albeit within a swirl of wind,rain and slipping wheels. The fun started at Reading where there didn't seem to be many services available for London Paddington. Fortunately I noticed an "Ealing Broadway" slow service which as some of you know goes all the way to PAD.

Although this was a slow service I don't remember seeing many fast services pass us on the fast lines in either directions and I got to PAD a bit later than normal but having had a seat all the way.

This some how reminds me of the story of the "tortoise and the hare"



Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: LiskeardRich on October 28, 2013, 17:16:42
The Met Office have been congratulating themselves on their forecast being 'on the money', and what transpired was pretty much what was predicted around noon yesterday. This didn't stop an interviewer goading them this morning that they had overdone it, when it was elements in the media that built it up, including using an invented Biblical name for it. Not much more than a routine winter storm really, more damage because it went over populated areas, and trees are still in leaf.

Pirate FM (local radio) were discussing the "over hyping" on their breakfast show that some medias were reporting. The 2 breakfast presenters came to the conclusion it was better for the Met Office to "over hype" than under advise. After a listener call in feature on their program they concluded that people were better prepared and safer by the over hyping, than potentially endangered by insufficient information


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: eightf48544 on October 28, 2013, 17:20:23

Although this was a slow service I don't remember seeing many fast services pass us on the fast lines in either directions and I got to PAD a bit later than normal but having had a seat all the way.


Main and Relief Lines Sir you are on the Great Western!


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: JayMac on October 28, 2013, 17:35:46
Main and Relief Lines Sir you are on the Great Western!

(http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/yes/double-thumbs-up-smiley-emoticon.gif) (http://www.sherv.net/emoticons.html)



From the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-24707779):

Quote
Storm cancellations: Were train companies too cautious?

Train services were completely cancelled across large parts of England on Monday, leaving thousands of people seeking alternative transport. But with companies axing services before the storm had even arrived, were they right to be so cautious?

Hours before the St Jude storm began whipping across the coast, senior figures at South West Trains had made a decision - they were going to cancel nearly all services for the following morning. As one of the largest train operators - running a train every minute into London Waterloo at peak times - the company had learnt to put its faith in weather forecasts.

This was a pattern largely imitated across most of the country, with First Capital Connect, Greater Anglia, Southeastern and Southern, also cancelling entire services.

Network Rail defended the decision, saying 100 fallen trees had been found on railway lines.

But were rail operators gambling that the weather would be as bad as predicted? And what would have happened had the storm been a damp squib?

Emma Knight, from South West Trains, said that blanket cancellation was "not a decision that we ever take lightly. If we hadn't had the weather as predicted we could have tried to reinstate the trains as best we could," she said. "But if we had gone ahead with normal services, people would have been stuck on trains, and we would have trains and crews stranded all over the place. We find the best approach is to be realistic. This way passengers know where they stand."

And she said that blanket cancellations had become more common recently.

"In my experience, with some of the extreme weather we've had in the past few years - with really heavy snows and floods - it has become more and more something that has to be done," she added.

(http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/70759000/jpg/_70759633_empty-railway-tracks-pa.jpg)
Trains were nowhere to be seen in many areas of east and southern England

However, some commuters found the scale of the cancellations to be less than helpful.

George Thomson, who was stranded at Gatwick, tweeted: "Opposite of the British Bulldog spirit, flights on, buses on, but trains all cancelled on Southern Railways lines = over cautious!"

And Stewart Jackson, MP for Peterborough, tweeted: "How come a gust of wind disables whole east of England rail infrastructure with economic consequences too?"

The storm was forecast to be the worst to hit the country in years with winds gusting over 80mph (129km/h). A gust of 99mph (159km/h) was recorded at Needles Old Battery, Isle of Wight, at 06:00 GMT.

A 17-year-old girl and a man in his 50s were killed by falling trees, while many others were injured on roads and pavements in towns and cities hit by strong gusts.

But there have been no reports of injuries at railway stations or on trains, even though one passenger service struck a tree in Devon (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-24700513).

Roger Perkins, from First Capital Connect, said passenger safety was paramount. The decision on what to do in the event of severe weather is taken jointly as an industry with Network Rail.

"There are various contingency timetables that can be put into effect," he said.

"All the train companies and Network Rail worked over the weekend to see how we could best respond as an industry.

"But there comes a point at which a decision has to be made."

Network Rail said several hundred staff had been working to monitor conditions and react to any damage caused by the storm.

Robin Gisby, Network Rail's managing director of network operations, said: "While conditions were as forecast during the early part of the morning, the damage caused by the storm has been more severe than expected."

Couple of observations from me:

I've included one of the pictures that illustrate the article. Those are the approaches to Glasgow Central.  ::)

The article mentions a passenger train striking a tree in Devon. This was an empty stock movement. No passengers were aboard as is clear from following the embedded link to another BBC News item.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: trainbuff on October 28, 2013, 17:37:06
Pirate fm reporting long delays on the trains as a train has hit a fallen tree near Ivybridge. 

This was an empty CrossCountry Voyager en route from Laira depot to Paignton to form the 0702 to Manchester Piccadilly. That service is now starting at Birmingham New Street.

In fact that is slightly incorrect. This empty stock movement leaves Laira and goes into Plymouth Station. There a Guard and the catering stores are put on the train. The Guard is required to operate the Barriers at Goodrington South crossing as the train is required to go into the sidings for route refresh purposes. The caterer joins the service normally at 07.19 when the 07.02 gets to Newton Abbot.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ChrisB on October 28, 2013, 17:47:21
Mark Hopwood on Twitter (https://twitter.com/hopwood_mark/status/394775925629652992)....

Quote
Mark Hopwood (@hopwood_mark)

28/10/2013 10:41
FGW hasn't run all trains but done our best with NR. Kept most lines open. Received lots tweets from customers who appreciate it #meansalot


Moderator note: Edited to fix quote and add link to tweet. bignosemac


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: Electric train on October 28, 2013, 18:24:28
Looking at the performance data at work today the GWML faired better than many lines,


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: grahame on October 29, 2013, 05:30:15
Hopeless trying to get onto NR's Journeychecker this morning and finally got onto FGW at about the 7th attempt - there seems little point referring people to websites for information/before setting out which don't have the capacity to cope when they are really needed - very frustrating.

Even the coffee shop saw a spike in traffic ... the first two diagrams attached are the daily and hourly visits for the last month, and they show significantly higher traffic over the 48 hours (24 before and 24 after) the storm.  We too take network feeds for our map, and it times that was missing information, I'm afraid.  Added out of interest is the diagram from another of our sites, showing the effect of a really serious viral interest on normal figures.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: grahame on October 29, 2013, 09:27:16
Out of our area, but still not all back:

http://www.stalbansreview.co.uk/news/10769083._/?

Quote
The Abbey Flyer train service will remain suspended today due to damage caused in yesterday^s storm.

London Midland said repair works were still ongoing after a tree was blown over onto the line between Watford Junction and St Albans Abbey.

A replacement bus service will run today and the train operator said it hopes the service will resume tomorrow.

Bad news for Watford North to Elstree commuters  ;)



Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ChrisB on October 30, 2013, 12:12:00
NRE email just received....

Quote
St Jude Storm - Impact on our customer service


Many more people than ever before used our services on Monday morning and reported a satisfactory experience, but there were problems encountered by some customers. If you were one of those customers who had difficulty in accessing our information on Monday morning, I am very sorry for the additional stress and inconvenience that we caused you. I've set out below a brief account of how we approached preparations for the storm and how events unfolded.

Saturday / Sunday

Storm St Jude was well forecast with the Met Office predicting weather that would have an impact on transport and other infrastructure. Some Train Operators took the decision over the weekend not to run trains early on Monday due to the likelihood of there being debris blown on to the tracks and the consequent potential safety impact. This information was posted onto our website homepage on Saturday evening.

On Sunday evening the amended timetable for Monday was made available in our journey planner.

Over the course of the weekend we had a planned upgrade of the journey planning systems which affected our ability to send alerts. This was communicated to customers in advance via their alerting preferences and by email. The upgrade went ahead as planned: one reason for the upgrade was that it allows us to add more capacity as required so that we could meet the needs of more customers.

Our contact centre team drafted in extra staff to work overtime on Monday to try to the cope with the anticipated increase in the number of customers calling. Our information management team was also bolstered with extra people.

The eye of the storm
 
We saw a marked increase in traffic across all of our channels (website / mobile / app / contact centre) from Sunday evening which continued through the early hours of Monday morning. Despite many more people than ever before using our services on Monday morning and reporting a satisfactory experience, there were problems encountered by some customers.

The problems included some customers being presented with a blank page rather than their journey plan, live departure board or other information - including in some cases our home page. This also had an impact on some customers using our mobile website, our apps and TrainTracker. This was identified by our support team who immediately began to investigate the cause of the issue and rectify it, whilst adding extra servers to cope with the increased demand. This took some time to complete, but the upgrade at the weekend meant that it was possible without reducing service to the majority of customers.

On our telephone lines, although our contact centre had additional staff working overtime and all desks were fully staffed, some customers had to wait quite a while for their call to be answered. Our advisors answered 47% more calls than a normal weekday and in addition our recorded message system answered almost 12,000 calls.

What worked well

Between 6am and 7am we had approximately 40,000 people on the website at any one time - about ten times what we see on a normal weekday morning. In the hour from 06:00 to 07:00 we answered 50% more requests for train times & ticket prices than in our previous busiest hour, which was when there was heavy snow on 18th January this year. The majority of customers were still able to use the website satisfactorily whilst the fixes were put in place.

Although journey planning in the apps was affected by the overall journey planning problems outlined above, live departure boards and other functions worked well. The Social Media team worked at full capacity delivering over 2000 messages to our Twitter accounts - by the end of Monday we had an extra 11,000 followers on our @nationalrailenq account. On the Facebook page we compiled an album of the pictures of the issues being found by Network Rail and the Train Operators.
 
Lessons Learned

We are working with our suppliers to investigate what went wrong and why, so that we are better prepared for the next major disruption.

Kind regards

Chris Scoggins
Chief Executive, National Rail Enquiries


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: TonyK on October 30, 2013, 20:38:57
You're damned if you do, you're damned if you don't. I am no fan of over-zealous health and safety governance, but here, surely, this was risk assessment on a grand scale.

The British railway network relies on a clear run, with no unexpected trees, landslips, OLE failures, and a lot more besides. As we know, it is susceptible to interference from the elements. In this case, the Met Office, according to the Trolleygraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10408452/Met-Office-supercomputer-mapped-storm-long-before-it-had-formed.html) forecast the path, size, and ferocity of this storm several days before it formed. Network Rail presumably buys this information, and sets about applying it to the network in conjunction with the TOCs. They clearly thought that "business as usual" posed an unacceptably high risk to passengers, assets, and smooth running when the wind has passed. Had the forecast said "A little blustery for the time of year", then some of the grumblings could be understood. But no-one with sense would ignore the kind of warnings issued, and I think the actions of those concerned were correct in the circumstances.

Only one incident (the tree in Cornwall) arose, and that without injury, but the commuting masses see this as evidence of over-caution. It could be that there was only one incident because proportionate caution was exercised. I would rather see 10,000 inconvenienced passengers than a single damaged one, and had a train full of passengers hit a fallen tree at speed, the same voices would have been raised in condemnation of reckless disregard for safety.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: trainer on October 31, 2013, 09:53:47
I agree, FTN.  The belief in absolute guarantees, so beloved of journalists trying to trick politicians, business leaders and others into statements they can beat them with later, is endemic in our society.  Weather forecasting is a 'probability' exercise and the TOCs and NR had to react to a high probability.  They acted on the safe side, which means because no-one was hurt, only inconvenienced, it is open to those without responsibility to use hindsight to cry 'over-cautious'.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: ChrisB on October 31, 2013, 10:13:28
And we weren't the only country to suspend services.....which sort of bears NR out.

Agree with comments above. The public are an a*se sometimes, geed on by the press


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: bobm on October 31, 2013, 10:37:36
I agree, FTN.  The belief in absolute guarantees, so beloved of journalists trying to trick politicians, business leaders and others into statements they can beat them with later, is endemic in our society.  Weather forecasting is a 'probability' exercise and the TOCs and NR had to react to a high probability.  They acted on the safe side, which means because no-one was hurt, only inconvenienced, it is open to those without responsibility to use hindsight to cry 'over-cautious'.

I am in agreement too.

At the weekend I planned to go to the West Country and return on Monday.  I took the view that care was being taken to run a practical service given the forecasted conditions.  I set out knowing that delays were possible but risks would not be run and it would be safer and more comfortable than by road.

In the end I arrived at my destination 12 minutes late on Sunday and my train home on Monday was on time.  That was a bonus - I had factored in the possibility of being delayed but I wasn't.  That doesn't leave me thinking "Well they made a fuss about nothing".  I think FGW got it spot on.  They did not cancel everything before 9am on Monday after taking into effect the time the storm was due to cross their area.  They assessed where problems were likely to be and made revisions accordingly.  Also, once it became clear things were not as bad as feared, they quickly got cancelled services re-instated.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: didcotdean on October 31, 2013, 14:48:50
The contrast is with Denmark, where they had to suspend services in operation for a period in the evening, leaving passengers stranded on trains between stations. They are being accused of under-reacting to the warnings.


Title: Re: Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013
Post by: TonyK on November 03, 2013, 22:27:02
Ah, wonderful, wonderful Copenhagen, which set the bar for me against which I measure how cold I feel. And I'm from Lancashire. I wasn't that impressed with the beer either, truth to tell.

You are right with probabilities, trainer. My usual source of weather information comes from the Met Office General Aviation service, and the American NWS IWS (http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/tafs/) (National Weather Service Internet Weather Service, collated from Met Offices the world over) simply because they are updated so regularly. If you know the ICAO code of a nearby airport (Bristol is EGGD and Heathrow EGLL), and if you can decode the information, you can see from METARS (Meteorological Aviation Reports) what the current weather is, and from TAFs (Terminal Area Forecasts) what information your airline pilot has about what is expected in the next few hours.

In the case of TAFs, there is a probability figure quoted. Most airlines tell their pilots to ignore anything of 30% or under in planning a flight. In the case of the Fairly Great Storm of 2013, I was much impressed by the Met Office's output, and wonder if this is a sign of new equipment giving greater forecasting powers. Much of Bristol Airport's stuff carried a 60% probability, and would have been ignored only by a fool.

BTW, if you looked at the TAF for Bristol:
TAF EGGD 031658Z 0318/0418 18010KT 9999 SCT030
     BECMG 0318/0321 08017G27KT 6000 -RA BKN010
     PROB40
     TEMPO 0318/0404 3000 +RA BKN002
     BECMG 0321/0324 02017G27KT
     BECMG 0403/0406 32009KT 9999 NSW SCT025
       
you will see that tomorrow looks nice, as the wind backs and loses strength substantially by 3am. We go from heavy rain with winds gusting to 27 knots and clouds at 200 feet to a relatively benign 9 knot north westerly, and no significant weather. Looks like I might cycle too work after all.



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