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Soaking Britain may be in for a new bout of flooding in coming months, the Environment Agency has warned.

Rivers are full after the wettest April to June on record, followed by more rain in July, September and October.

The earth is saturated and in many areas there is no more space left in aquifers to store water that seeps through from the surface.

The agency warns that people should be ready for floods even with relatively small amounts of rain.

They warn of increased risk of river flooding in November and December, especially in the south-west and northern and western parts of England and Wales.

Devon, Dorset and Hampshire are also vulnerable to flooding from water coming up through the soaking ground because groundwater in aquifers moves much more slowly than surface water, and will take more time to flow away underground.

Sarah Jackson, the Met Office's chief adviser to the government, said: "We are heading into the winter period which is traditionally the wetter period of the year in the UK. Because the ground is so wet, if we do have any prolonged heavy rainfall in any part of the country, there is going to be heightened risk of flooding."

With regards to areas at risk of flooding, Peter Fox - of the Environment Agency - said it was most concerned about south west England and Wales.

"It has been a topsy turvy year for us. Our experts were very surprised by the results of the summer rain," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

The agency said more than 1.1 million people are signed up to receive its flood warnings - which can be sent by email, text, or a message to a landline or mobile phone.

Now, I don't want to seem churlish, but I am rather concerned at the quality of such 'expert' opinion ...  ::)

just out of interest does the met office have to comply with freedom of information requests? would love to know how they can spend millions and get results no better than someone predicting weather in the shed at the bottom of the garden

you cant use the met offices own records to gauge accuracy !

Flood warnings after snowfall in west of England

Flood warnings have been issued after three inches of snow fell across parts of the West Country and southern England, causing disruption to transport.

The snowfall happened early on Sunday and affected parts of Wiltshire, Somerset, North Dorset and Devon.

Fifteen flood warnings have been issued as the snow begins to melt away, with one bridge in danger of collapse.

A BBC weather forecaster said brighter weather was expected on Monday.

Areas including Bath, Frome and Midsomer Norton and Radstock in the Mendips were affected by snow, with up to 6in (15cm) reported in places.

Bournemouth experienced the most rainfall in the UK, with 30mm (1.2in) falling in 24 hours. The Dorset town would normally expect to receive 100mm (4in) of rain on average for the whole of November.

Nearly 80 less severe flood alerts have been issued in other areas.

Wiltshire Police said several vehicles became stuck in snow near Bradford-on-Avon.

Bath and North East Somerset (Banes) Council said it had been caught unaware because no snow was forecast.

Steph Clegg from Bruton in Somerset, who was trying to drive to Cardiff on Sunday morning, said: "We set off and there was sleet. When we got to Shepton Mallet it got much heavier. Vans were having to pull over and people were turning around and skidding everywhere. It was like a completely different world."

Several roads in the region have been affected by flooding. The A357 through Templecombe in Somerset has been closed in both directions because of concerns a bridge wall could collapse, Avon and Somerset Police said.

Roads have also been flooded in Malmesbury and Tidworth in Wiltshire.

The Environment Agency issued flood warnings for several rivers in the area, including the Tetbury Avon at Malmesbury and the River Chew near Keynsham.

Football matches were also affected, as FA Cup ties at non-league Braintree Town, Essex and Gloucester City were postponed due to waterlogged pitches.

Earlier, trains between Swindon and Gloucester had to be replaced by buses because of flooding near Kemble, but First Great Western said the line had now been reopened.

Several bus services in the Bath and Wells areas which were cancelled because of snow, were now getting back to normal a spokesman for First Bristol said.

Light snow was also reported in parts of Gloucestershire and on the hilltops of Dartmoor above Okehampton in Devon.

BBC weather forecaster Matt Taylor said heavy rain across much of southern, central and eastern England had "turned to snow on the western flank as it engaged cold air".

Environment Agency issues flood warnings for the west

Flood warnings have been issued for the west and south west of England as heavy rain approaches the area.

Parts of Somerset, Wiltshire, Dorset, Gloucestershire and Devon are at risk due to slow-moving bands of heavy rain falling on already saturated ground.

The Environment Agency currently has four flood warnings in the south west, for areas on the rivers Axe, Dart and Char.

Across England there were 27 less serious flood alerts in place.

"Teams have been mobilised to check on flood defences, clear river blockages and monitor water levels," an agency spokesman said. "We are looking at 15 to 30mm (0.6 to 1.2 inches) quite widely across that area and up to 40mm (1.6 inches) in the worst-hit areas. There's pretty saturated ground following the rain around today, so there's the possibility of seeing some localised flooding."

The Met Office said it had heavy rain warnings out for south west England and south east Wales, as well as western Scotland, over the next few days.

More than 100 residents were evacuated from their homes and transport links were cut off after persistent heavy rain caused flooding in parts of Scotland on Monday.

What confuses me rather about the Met Office is how come they are unable so reluctant to issue a statement on what the weather might have in store for us in a few days time, let alone a week or a month hence; and yet seem utterly confident in accurately predicting the effect of man-made emissions on the global climate in ten or twenty years from now. Either they do have some idea of what the future holds or they don't - they can't have it both ways!

Heavy rain causes flood problems in West

Heavy rain has caused flooding and travel problems around the west of England.

A "torrent" of water has left Portbury village centre, near Bristol, under about six inches of water, according to BBC reporter Nigel Dando.

And a flood warning has been issued for Winford Brook at Chew Magna and from Chew Stoke to Keynsham.

Rail services connecting Somerset and Devon have also been affected with flooding at Tiverton Parkway.

Mr Dando said people from Portbury were trying to save the village hall from flood water. "It's gathering outside Portbury village hall and we've got volunteers who are fighting a battle to stop water getting into the hall," he said. "They've put boards up outside the hall to try and stop water getting in."

In Wiltshire, flood alerts are in place for the River Biss between Westbury and Trowbridge and the River Avon between Melksham and Bradford-on-Avon.

A flood alert is also in place for the Upper River Avon between Malmesbury and Chippenham.

In Somerset, flooding is causing problems on the A39 between Minehead and Bridgwater and the A37 at Lydford Cross.

And police in Gloucestershire are warning drivers to "exercise caution when driving" as numerous roads in the county are flooded or have surface water.

Owing to flooding between Plymouth and Westbury trains have to run at reduced speed on all lines. Train services running through these stations may be delayed by up to 60 mins or diverted at short notice. An estimate for the resumption of normal services will be provided as soon as the problem has been fully assessed.

Due to flooding between Plymouth to Totnes, Exeter St Davids to Taunton & Taunton to Westbury. First Great Western Train services are subject to delays of up to 60 minutes.

South West Trains services are conveying passengers via any reasonable route until further notice. Arrangements have been made for First Great Western rail tickets to be accepted for these journeys.

Road Transport is being resourced at Taunton to support customers.

Message Received :21/11/2012 08:29

From the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20171078):


Now, I don't want to seem churlish, but I am rather concerned at the quality of such 'expert' opinion ...  ::)

This year has broken all the rules of hydrological forecasting. 

Somerset floods: A361 may be 'flooded until Christmas'

The main road linking Taunton to Glastonbury could remain flooded and impassable until Christmas, the Environment Agency (EA) has said.

The manager of Gillards Haulage Company, Roger Hutchings, said the road closure was costing him ^5,000 a week in lost business.

Robbie Williams, from the EA, said it was doing all it could to shift water from the Somerset Levels after the worst flooding in living memory.

A video news report (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-20649111), from the BBC:

Met Office three-month forecast was 'not helpful'

The Met Office has admitted issuing advice to government that was "not helpful" during last year's remarkable switch in weather patterns.

Between March and April 2012, the UK experienced an extraordinary shift from high pressure and drought to low pressure and downpours. But the Met Office said the forecast for average rainfall "slightly" favoured drier than average conditions.

The three-month forecast is said to be experimental. It is sent to contingency planners but has been withheld from the public since the Met Office was pilloried for its "barbecue summer" forecast in 2009.

Last spring's forecast has been obtained by BBC News under Freedom of Information.

The Met Office three-monthly outlook at the end of March stated: "The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June, and slightly favours April being the driest of the three months."

A soul-searching Met Office analysis later confessed: "Given that April was the wettest since detailed records began in 1910 and the April-May-June quarter was also the wettest, this advice was not helpful."

In a note to the government chief scientist, the Met Office chief scientist Prof Julia Slingo explains the difficulty of constructing long-distance forecasts, given the UK's position at the far edge of dominant world weather systems. She says last year's calculations were not actually wrong because they were probabilistic.

The Met Office forecast that the probability that April-May-June would fall into the driest of five categories was 20-25%, whilst the probability it would fall into the wettest was 10-15% (The average probability would be 20%).

The Met Office explained it this way: "The probabilistic forecast can be considered as somewhat like a form guide for a horse race. It provides an insight into which outcomes are most likely, although in some cases there is a broad spread of outcomes, analogous to a race in which there is no strong favourite. Just as any of the horses in the race could win the race, any of the outcomes could occur, but some are more likely than others."

It said: "The creation of the three-monthly outlook relies upon the fact that weather is influenced by the slow variation of ocean conditions (and other processes) which can be predicted months in advance. Whilst there is a very strong dependence of tropical weather on processes such as El Nino, the UK's weather is dominated by the highly variable atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, making it much harder to predict what will happen weeks and months ahead."

In the case of last spring, Prof Slingo says the forecast may have been pushed awry by a little-understood climate phenomenon, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) - a pattern of thunderstorms that starts in the Indian Ocean. The Met Office calls it "one of the great unsolved challenges of tropical meteorology".

The irregular phenomenon is an envelope of thunderstorms starting in the Indian Ocean and moving into the Pacific. The MJO concentrates tropical rainfall within the envelope, with blue skies around it.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Prof Slingo also said a serious pressure on water resources in March did mean a "slightly enhanced risk" of the drought continuing into April.

"I felt it was right to emphasise the risk of dry conditions continuing as a precautionary principle," she added. "We have to look over a large number of events and I think on about 65% of occasions we do give indeed very helpful advice."

Nick Klingaman from Reading University says that, as it moves east, the MJO influences monsoon rainfall in Australia, India, Southeast Asia, South America and Africa.

These "bursts" and "breaks" in the monsoon cause floods and droughts that impact agriculture, river systems and infrastructure. The "long arm of the MJO" even extends into the middle latitudes.

"The thunderstorm activity generates waves in the atmosphere that move toward the poles," he told me. "The position of the MJO today has been shown to influence the position of the Pacific and Atlantic jet streams 10-15 days later."

He says the MJO can be an important predictor of the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation - which controls much of our weather in the UK - about 2-4 weeks in advance. And that's how a thunderstorm off the coast of India might trigger a pattern of events which led to the weather switch last spring.

Some weather models can predict the MJO three weeks ahead, he said, but others struggle to predict it a week ahead. Forecasts have greater skill when the MJO is already active. Reading University is working with the Met Office on improving MJO forecasting, he said.

A Met Office spokesman said: "The science of long-range forecasting is at the cutting edge of meteorology and the Met Office is leading the way in this research area. We are confident that long-range outlooks will improve progressively. Looking at the skill of these outlooks over many individual forecasts clearly shows that they provide useful advice to their specialist users more often than not."

When asked about weather predictions in the coming months Prof Slingo said the cold weather could continue into the middle of April. She added: "Our monthly forecast favours cold conditions continuing. Into the summer it's much more difficult to predict but we're expecting a return to near normal conditions into May and then June but of course its important to emphasise that this is only one of a whole sequence of forecasts we give."