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Title: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: Btline on July 25, 2012, 23:26:25 Personally, I think it will go ahead.
Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: ellendune on July 25, 2012, 23:34:50 If it is axed then the WCML will become so overloaded express services will have to be slowed so that all trains proceed at the same speed and stops at medium sized stations (e.g. MK, Tamworth, Litchfield and Rugby) will be reduced further to maximise. Then these people who thought they would not benefit from the line will realise their mistake.
If, as seems likely, oil prices continue to rise then the economy will be strangled because goods are unable to transfer to rail (that should have been freed from oil and gas prices by then except for the same group on Nimbys opposition to wind and nuclear power). At least DfT seem to be able to look ahead even if the Treasury cannot see beyond the next election. Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: JayMac on July 26, 2012, 00:03:11 I've noted elsewhere on this forum (http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=11048.msg114921#msg114921) just how quiet the DfT and HMG seem to have been recently on HS2. They've been busy with various announcements regarding electrification, IEP, Crossrail, NR's Control Period 5, franchise tenders for GW, ICEC, ICWC, Thameslink and so on.
All the announced spending is welcome, but I fear that HS2 may well be seen as a capital expenditure that the Govt. will decide cannot be afforded in the current climate, whatever the cost/benefit projections may suggest. HMG seem to be on a path at the moment that is looking to get best value out of the existing rail network, rather than committing to building a new, very expensive, line. I hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear that HS2 will be kicked into the long grass with the excuse that the country can't afford it at the moment. Should HS2 not happen then I hope that both the East Coast and West Coast routes can be upgraded to allow 140mph or more running. Existing and future rolling stock will be capable of those speeds - it's only P-way and signalling that prevents it at the moment. Notwithstanding the Railtrack/NR/Virgin fiasco over 'West Coast Route Modernisation', upgrading the existing infrastructure will be cheaper than building a new line. That said, the mixed traffic nature of both East and West Coast routes would need to be addressed. Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: ellendune on July 26, 2012, 00:14:48 The way the economy is going what we will need is big infrastructure projects to get it going again.
Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: broadgage on July 26, 2012, 09:09:49 I dont think that it will be officialy axed, but neither do I think that it will happen anytime soon.
Best to call for a few more reviews and consultations in order to put it off for bit. Proceeding OR cancelling would annoy too many people, more reviews and consultations gives hope for both sides. Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: Andrew1939 from West Oxon on July 26, 2012, 11:12:02 The current announcements relate to rail investment over the next 5 years or so. HS2 has always been planned as a longer term project with only planned and intial works over this period. With all government departments facing staffing cutbacks I suspect the civil servants at the DfT are struggling to keep up with the current workloads and HS is now on the back-burner.
Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: eightf48544 on July 26, 2012, 17:54:35 Could we have a vote Delayed please, as the indicators at Padd had up this pm. You could even have heavily delayed, moderaely delayed or just delayed
Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: bobm on July 26, 2012, 18:37:11 I sometimes think when "delayed" shows "lost" might be a better description - usually the platform staff are at that point struggling to find out where the said train is! ;D ;D
Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: Btline on July 26, 2012, 19:07:22 Delayed means not axed! :D :P
Unfortunately, I can't alter the poll. Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: JayMac on July 26, 2012, 21:38:38 Moderator Note:
At the request of the OP, the poll has been edited to include a 'delayed' option and also the opportunity to change your choice if you've already voted. bignosemac. Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: onthecushions on July 27, 2012, 00:36:36 The lobbies in favour include the consultants, contractors etc who stand to gain, plus the regional lobbies (chambers of trade, local authorities, politicians, etc) who want the regional growth and Network Rail because its sums say do it. Against are a number of powerful lobbies across the Counties affected - these are important to the Govt majority and the Tories can't really afford a split with HS2 being carried by Lab-Dems, plus the 30+ Bn borrowing needed. The "Electric Spine" adds another uncertainty. If it proves to draw off a lot of freight from the South end of the WCML then it may free up enough paths to allow delay or even cancellation. Nuneaton is even further North than Rugby, HS2's first target. On the other hand, the (welcome) surrender to the Welsh assembly over Swansea electrification may point to Govt conceding that a HS route to Scotland (as well as the Regions) is also needed to help save the Union. Too close to call, for me. OTC Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: paul7575 on July 27, 2012, 18:56:50 The "Electric Spine" adds another uncertainty. If it proves to draw off a lot of freight from the South end of the WCML then it may free up enough paths to allow delay or even cancellation. Nuneaton is even further North than Rugby, HS2's first target. Depends how you define the 'south end of the WCML'. AFAICS one of the purposes of the electrified 'East West Rail' element of the spine is to avoid conflicts at Nuneaton and Coventry - and the only way that works is by putting MORE freight on the WCML slow lines between Bletchley and Nuneaton. One of the plus points for it is also to allow freight from Southampton to access DIRFT directly via Bletchley and Northampton. If you are thinking of the WCML between London and Bletchley, I don't see the electric spine having a significant effect on it. Paul Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: Electric train on July 27, 2012, 19:51:40 The "Electric Spine" adds another uncertainty. If it proves to draw off a lot of freight from the South end of the WCML then it may free up enough paths to allow delay or even cancellation. Nuneaton is even further North than Rugby, HS2's first target. The 25kV electrification from Southampton to Coventry will not take any freight off of the WCML I am not aware of any Southampton fright that goes via London. The WCML is heading to wards capacity there is little more that can be done that will not impact on the existing services a WCML upgrade akin to what was done in 2000 - 2009 at ^9B and lots of disruption just will not be accepted. Simply HS2 is not just needed it is essential for the National economy as a whole, we should adopt the French railway planing strategy draw a straight line on a map and build a railway where the line is drawn Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: eightf48544 on July 28, 2012, 09:43:42 You can draw a straight line for a Motorway (although in practice a modern motorway has no straight sections) and knock down as many houses and considerably blight many more with the constant rumble. Try doing that for a railway line and the Nimby's will be out in force. Despite the greater impact of the motorway. Try mooring at Lapworth where the Grand Union, the Railway and the M40 run close together and the noise of the trains is insignificant compared with the constant rumble of the M40.
They even tried to start say no to HST2 in Marlow saying it will blight the area despite being across well over the M40 which is a far greater eyesore. Isn't interesting that everyone thought the Blechley Flyover was a white elephant from the day it was built and now it's going to be part of a freight spine. Maybe the BR planners weren't as silly as we thought and understood geography better than their successors. I always thought Channel Tunnel Tonbridge Redhill Reading Oxford WCML or MML would be a good freight route for international traffic. The only snag is a lack of a flyover at Redhill to save reversal. Also somebody is already using the flyunder at Reading. Which of course was the main reason for the flyover at Blechley was to route freight round London, I wonder whether they had in mind that there may be a Channel Tunnel one day so the route could become even more important. The thing they failed to see was the abysmal lack of freight through the Chunnel. Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: Electric train on July 28, 2012, 10:09:16 Which of course was the main reason for the flyover at Blechley was to route freight round London, I wonder whether they had in mind that there may be a Channel Tunnel one day so the route could become even more important. The thing they failed to see was the abysmal lack of freight through the Chunnel. There are several reason for the lack of rail only freight through the Chunnel, in part we have very effective deep sea container ports in the UK and in the Low Countries modern container handling means container ships have multi drops around the world. There is also quite a lot of road freight that travels on the shuttle, one of the reasons why road haulers like to use the ferries it serves as one of the rest periods for drivers, one reason why Newhaven is very popular plus the truck parking fees are lower than Dover. Did the 1950's modernisation plan envisage the Tunnel when it built the Blechley flyover I doubt it, it faces the wrong way it was part of the short sighted vision to maintain "pick up goods" along with the hump shunt yards. What should have been kept using 20/20 hindsight was the Didcot - Southampton line what a superb fright route that would be today Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: Btline on July 28, 2012, 12:33:45 The new FGW ITT tells the companies to IGNORE HS2 when making predictions.
Quote The first section of HS2 should have opened between London and Birmingham before the franchise ends in 2028, although bidders are being told to disregard the implications of the new High Speed line when making their calculations and suggestions. Does this shocking revelation mean the government is preparing to swing the axe? Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: Electric train on July 28, 2012, 13:25:02 The new FGW ITT tells the companies to IGNORE HS2 when making predictions. Quote The first section of HS2 should have opened between London and Birmingham before the franchise ends in 2028, although bidders are being told to disregard the implications of the new High Speed line when making their calculations and suggestions. Does this shocking revelation mean the government is preparing to swing the axe? No it does not mean HS2 is being axed. HS2 is too early in the development stage to accurately predict its implications to GW franchise during construction and final operation, for tendering purposes all those bidding will be bidding on knowns and not putting in a lot of assumptions; assumptions always add woolliness to contact pricing, it will be a lot simpler to renegotiate / compensate at the time of HS2 indeed that could be built into the HS2 franchise to compensate TOCs n FOCs Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: onthecushions on July 28, 2012, 22:22:16 The justification for HS2 was firstly capacity, the WCML will be (not is) full in the middle distance and secondly speed, with a high value being put on saving of business time. (A pity equal value was not put on commuters' time - we are the same people after all). The alternative of higher capacity and speed on the WCML was seen as prohibitive as widening in towns would need tunnelling (imagine 6 tracks through Ealing Broadway!), combined with the complication and disruption experienced in the last WCML upgrade. Up to 2010, including the eRUS (Oct 2009) this seems to have been accepted, with little scent of the Electric Spine. The Oxford - Bedford reopening/wiring (option B18.1 App 4, p111) was stated to have Low to Medium benefits and Basingstoke - Coventry was listed as an add-on, after GWML (A13.4, App3, p105) but was ranked as Tier 3 (i.e low), Birmingham - Leeds/Doncaster by contrast (A19.2, App 3 P106) was ranked as Tier 1, even including our Banbury line. Wires didn't seem to be going South of Basingstoke. What's changed? Well, HS2 has risen in price, with half the first 70 miles in tunnel and sundry costly other concessions. Also, traffic projections must have lowered with the longer recession, as must the balance of flows. The "Spine" appears to deliver freights to Nuneaton, North of the critical Rugby stretch, and to Bedford for the MML, North of the Thameslink services. In effect the WCML will have a pair of splints, to take the extra traffic. If sufficient slower traffic could be removed from (or not added to) the WCML, then new, tunnelled fast lines aren't necessary and we just need the formation and alignment improving for a more modest scheme. I'm not defending it, just reading the tea-leaves. OTC Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: paul7575 on July 29, 2012, 10:10:35 ... The "Spine" appears to deliver freights to Nuneaton, North of the critical Rugby stretch, and to Bedford for the MML, North of the Thameslink services. In effect the WCML will have a pair of splints, to take the extra traffic. If sufficient slower traffic could be removed from (or not added to) the WCML... But the 'electric spine' doesn't really remove any WCML traffic, two of us have already tried to explain this. What it does is remove conflicting traffic from the Coventry area. From the Southampton direction, nearly all freight to the NW is currently routed up through Leamington/Coventry/Nuneaton. What they are talking about is diverting this route via Bletchley, ie to join the WCML earlier, thereby increasing the flow through the Milton Keynes/Northampton/Rugby section. If any flows from Southampton are sent via the MML to destinations such as Leeds, they will be services that don't currently affect the WCML anyway. There is however a separate project to move freight to/from Felixstowe onto the cross country route to Nuneaton via Ely and Peterborough. (This route doesn't seem to be down for electrification however.) Also, and this is a significant issue, although this does theoretically remove freight from both the NLL and the WCML(S), this is only so that the existing paths can be used for new services from the new container port at Thames Gateway (Shellhaven). Just to add a PS, this is all covered in chapter 9 of the London and SE RUS, which concerns freight in the 'greater south east': Quote 9.4.9 Capacity over the Nuneaton ^ Leamington Spa corridor therefore appears to be a potential barrier to future freight growth from Southampton, especially due to the crossing move at Nuneaton in the southbound direction. Interventions to address this issue may therefore be required in the future, as noted under Gap 8 of the Freight RUS. 9.4.10 One way discounted as a response to the constraints in 9.4.9 was for some Southampton traffic to run via London in normal operating circumstances, then onwards to the north via the WCML, Midland Main Line (MML) or East Coast Main Line (ECML). This would increase congestion on busy routes in and around the capital so has not been considered further, except for diversionary purposes (which would tend to take place at night or weekends when capacity for freight is significantly improved). It would also conflict with freight demand growth from other origins using the southern end of the WCML. The RUS therefore seeks an option which enables Southampton growth whilst both avoiding London (for traffic not serving that area) and the Coventry/Nuneaton/West Midlands constraints (for traffic not serving such areas). 9.4.11 One potential approach would be to reopen the currently closed route from Bletchley towards Bicester (at Claydon Junction), as part of the third party promoted East-West Rail (EWR) scheme. Reopening of this line could potentially enable new routeing options for Southampton freight flows to the north, linking in to forecast demand (from Table 9.3) especially to Daventry in the West Midlands or the North West via the WCML. The most immediate new routeing options would be: ~ Southampton ^ Oxford ^ Bletchley ^ WCML (for the Northwest) ~ Southampton ^ Oxford ^ Bletchley ^ Daventry (for the Daventry International Rail Freight Terminal). Paul Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: paul7575 on July 29, 2012, 10:25:04 The new FGW ITT tells the companies to IGNORE HS2 when making predictions. Does this shocking revelation mean the government is preparing to swing the axe? Did you read on to the very next section of the ITT? Quote Bidders should not include the consequences of and possible opportunities from Western Rail Access for the Great Western franchise in their Bid. So by your logic presumably that must be being axed as well. Expressions that spring to mind are 'clutching at straws', or 'making a mountain out of a molehill'... Paul Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: onthecushions on July 29, 2012, 21:52:53 I really do take the point about existing plans not diverting WCML traffic. I just question whether, with a wired route both ways, a freight would really go to the NW via Bletchley rather than via Coventry (The mileages, Oxford - Nuneaton are c63 vs c80, E&OE) especially if the WCML is busy and paths perhaps cost more. I am still mystified as to why low ranking electrification schemes were approved and try to imagine reasons. Regards, OTC Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: ellendune on July 30, 2012, 19:02:14 I am still mystified as to why low ranking electrification schemes were approved and try to imagine reasons. Which do you regard as low ranking? Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: Btline on July 30, 2012, 19:19:49 I'm locking the poll.
Clearly people still think HS2 will go ahead, although it's divided whether it will be delayed. I sincerely hope a severe delay doesn't happen, but I doubt it'll opened on time. Nothing ever does in this country! Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: JayMac on July 30, 2012, 19:37:07 I'm locking the poll. Spoilsport. ;) Quote Clearly people still think HS2 will go ahead, although it's divided whether it will be delayed. Agreed, although nearly as many think it will be delayed than go ahead as per current timetable.Quote but I doubt it'll opened on time. Nothing ever does in this country! Aren't you forgetting your sainted Chiltern? Haven't the recent Evergreen improvements come in on time?Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: Btline on July 30, 2012, 20:14:48 Ok, I won't.
Actually Evergreen 3 was actually delayed! (due to incompetent contractors, not Chiltern themselves) You could also argue that they weren't quite 100% ready on the first day - see first post of http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=9450.0 Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: eightf48544 on July 30, 2012, 20:37:39 i was being tongue in cheek re Blechley and the Channel Tunnel.
What should have been kept using 20/20 hindsight was the Didcot - Southampton line what a superb fright route that would be today Agree 100% with the wartime doublng to Newbury and the installing very long loops South of Neewbury to Whinchester it would be agood freight rioute. Although could Chesil tunnel be enlarged for modern containers. The only trouble is you ahve to cross all 4 lines at Didcot to get onto it for Southampton. Always regretted not travelling on it when open. Did see City of Truro working a passenger train to Southampton Terminus in the late 50s when it out in regular traffic. But it was at Eastleigh. My paternal grand parents met at West Woodhay house in WW1 when he was convelesing from wounds and she was working at the house. She used to tell me stories about going from Southampton to West Woodhay by train. Little anecdote. Some time in the early sixties due to the inbalance of workings all the tockens ended at one end of the Section. So special arrangements had to be to wothdraw and number of tokens and car tehm to other end. Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: onthecushions on July 30, 2012, 22:20:51 I am still mystified as to why low ranking electrification schemes were approved and try to imagine reasons. Which do you regard as low ranking? See Reply No 17 (for brevity) OTC Title: Re: Will HS2 get axed? Post by: ellendune on July 30, 2012, 22:49:51 I am still mystified as to why low ranking electrification schemes were approved and try to imagine reasons. Which do you regard as low ranking?OTC The eRUS did not seem to take freight seriously. The opportunity to increase energy efficiency, reduce carbon and to insulate the economy further against shock increases the case for freight electrification. However to do that you need a spine network or FOCs will not invest in electric traction. EW gives access bothe to WCML and MML giving a range of destinations without the need for traction change. It also helps resolve some capacity issues north of Oxford. Like so many economic appraisals it depends on what factors you bring into the calculation. This page is printed from the "Coffee Shop" forum at http://gwr.passenger.chat which is provided by a customer of Great Western Railway. Views expressed are those of the individual posters concerned. Visit www.gwr.com for the official Great Western Railway website. Please contact the administrators of this site if you feel that content provided contravenes our posting rules ( see http://railcustomer.info/1761 ). The forum is hosted by Well House Consultants - http://www.wellho.net |