Great Western Coffee Shop

TRANSPORT Secretary Justine Greening is poised to pump billions of pounds into the rail network to cut journey times and boost growth.In days she will announce plans for a major new electrification project to upgrade key rail routes across the country.Among the other schemes vying for funds is one which will link valley towns in South Wales with Swansea and Cardiff after plans to electrify the Great Western Mainline as far as ^Cardiff were announced last year.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/331484/-billion-rail-boost-will-electrify-the-Midlands

Hmmmm.

If the Midland main Line scheme (A19.1 in the electrification RUS) is given the go-ahead, i.e. allowed to go forward in the GRIP process, it will be interesting to read in the tea leaves what the DfT is really thinking. MML was stated to have a better return than our GWML but how extensive will the wiring/capacity schemes be? Will there be a "Swansea chop" in the Midlands?

Watch out for whether both Trent Valley and Derby routes to Sheffield are included, also whether much 4 track is reinstated and the Corby and Matlock branches are wired. Yorkshire PTA's are now keen on sparks so it's possible they may get Sheffield - Moorthorpe (for Leeds) as well. Dft isn't that good at Geography so NR may fix things.

It's too much to hope for all XC as well but as an outside, add-on wiring from Basingstoke to Coventry/B'ham (via Oxford) would allow all the NW-South Coast "XC" to go electric. Perhaps we'd get our Liverpools and Glasgows back in our glitzy new Reading General.

Politically, wiring announcements before Summer hols would leave a good taste when HS2 was faltering. Also Nick (or is it Norman) Clegg is a Sheffield MP and looks vulnerable. So back to the armchair to listen to the Home Service....


OTC

Contract for IEP has been signed although a press annoucement about it isnt expected until the annoucement about electrification etc.

Still I look forward to seeing what the government have planned although I do hope it includes wires to Swansea

The contract for IEP is believed to have been signed. That's all that's floating around the internet at the moment. I've little doubt it's a done deal with Hitachi but it's important to make the distinction that nothing official has yet been announced.

The following article entitled "Electrification could speed up trains in Gloucestershire" says that FGW is considering upgrading the network in other areas, and that is expected to include Cheltenham if Bristol/Birmingham XC was electrified.

http://www.thisisgloucestershire.co.uk/story-16514651-detail/story.html

Quote from above article "Other routes that may come up for possible consideration for electrification include Bristol to Birmingham via Cheltenham (and Gloucester) as part of a wider initiative to electrify services between Bristol, Birmingham and the North. "If this was proposed, there would be a case for considering electrification of the routes from Severn Tunnel Junction to Gloucester and the South Cotswold route from Swindon to Standish Junction (south of Gloucester)."

So I await with great interest what the Government will shortly announce regarding its wider electrification plans for the period 2014/2019.

  History has proven that Electrification is infectious, once a primary route is electrified the (Train) operator pushes for more it as it improve flexibility, reduces the number of different types of traction they have to maintain and maintenance costs of electric traction is far lower than diesel

As I pointed out in another thread, the forthcoming announcement is the DfT's view on all CP5 projects, ie the HLOS/SoFA. 

It is not just an 'electrification announcement', as is sometimes being assumed...

Paul

It's looking like Monday for the HLOS statement if you believe the number of articles with journalists attempting to pre-empt the detail within.

Several articles saying that MML electrification north of Bedford will be announced, and the following article from the Guardian also suggests that Cardiff to Swansea and the Valley Lines will figure along with confirmation of East-West Rail linking Oxford/Aylesbury with Milton Keynes/Bedford.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jul/13/rail-network-investment-cameron-clegg (http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jul/13/rail-network-investment-cameron-clegg)

I remember similar such bold claims in the past though, so I won't believe anything until I hear it!

Interesting looking at the sources of this "announcement".

The Guardian article probably comes from a Lib-Dem leak.

There is also something in RailNews:

http://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2012/07/14-hope-grows-for-midland-main.html

This mentions "industry sources" and mentions wiring North of Sheffield.

Could the mention of Swansea betoken a change of heart or just journalists repeating last year's copy?

OTC

For the MML, Network Rail's CP5 proposals had the core network as follows:

Bedford to Sheffield via Derby;
Kettering to Corby; and
Trent Junction to Nottingham.

...and they costed that at between ^216m - ^257m

they then said that incremental costs would be worked out for:

Trent Junction to Clay Cross South Junction (Erewash valley line);
Matlock branch;
Etches Park depot;
Sheffield to Doncaster;
Sheffield to Leeds; and
Up and Down Hendon lines from Silkstream Junction to Watling Street Junction.

The leaked figure for the MML wiring quoted in all the papers now turns out to be roughly twice the amount of the core route, at ^500m.  If true that suggests the whole lot is being done...

Paul

 

The Sheffield to Doncaster / Leeds will be useful as an ECML diversionary route, the ECML totally falls apart if there is a incident anywhere South of Doncaster.

All this electrification work is only bringing us back on track where BR wanted to be by 2000 so we will only be about 20 to 25 years late! and 5 times the cost

The Independent while reporting Plans to electrify the Midland Mainline adds that the move would see the current fleet of inter-city diesel trains replaced with electric ones".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/midland-mainline-to-be-electrified-7944136.html

Just a thought what would happen to the Meridian fleet.Would they transfer to West of England services to replace Great Westerns HSTs onthe Paddington/Plymouth/Penzance route.Or would they be retained on the Midland main line and converted to electric traction by inserting a pantograph car into Meridian sets.

It is also being reported that the Swansea and the South Wales Valleys will benefit because an extra ^500 million pounds has been secured to bring electric trains to the south Wales Valles and onto Swansea.

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2012-07-14/electrification-to-swansea-to-be-given-go-ahead/
I suppose we will have to wait until Monday for more details.Never the less any thoughts on the matter.

Meridians fitted with pantograph coaches has been one suggestion. They use the same bodyshells as Voyagers so would be a logical extension of any project to fit Voyagers with pantographs. I think the e-meridian idea was mainly being suggested when it was rumoured the MML would only be electrified to Leicester, therefore requiring continued usage of some diesel power. If the whole of the route is electrified it seems a bit strange to keep trains with that many diesel engines underneath them. They wouldn't be used much and they'd be adding lots of weight to the trains.

With all these diesel-fitted electrics being proposed, I wonder if the railway will be able to negotiate a lower electricity supply price on the basis of an "interruptible" supply tarriff (at times when the national grid is approaching overload, some large consumers can be disconnected.  In the case of rail this could be done a train at a time as required).

Very good point, and the Meridians could then form the top end of a DMU cascade. Although then the question of what stock to use on the MML would be interesting. The route is ideal for tilt given it's relatively curvy, but Pendolinos would be a very long shot.

Incidentally, if the routes to Leeds and Doncaster are included, which given the speculated cost may be the case then that would leave relatively little unwired between Edinburgh and Bristol. With GW and Trans Pennine routes already committed, the addition of MML ready does get us to a point whereby infill schemes start to become no brainers, particularly given the current philosophy that significant new dmu stock is unlikely.         

I  wouldn't be too surprised if some of the class 222's were transfered to the Great Western region particulary for routes down to Penzance and perhaps for services which say go beyond Swansea particulary since it looks like IEP will not be ckeared to work west of Swansea.

I am looking forward to Monday and seing what the government have up their sleeves.

As for the wires coming to south wales I say brilliant especially if we can get a regular local service west of Cardiff which will run through to Bristol TM.

One of the long term problems could be that there's only a few main types of DMUs left -  perhaps 158s, 16X, 17X, or 22X - the last may have to be forced onto operators who who would really prefer the commuter style units, because there comes a time when a Voyager sized unit is just too much of a long distance unit for a particular quiet branchline...

Interesting problem to have to solve...

Paul

This section from the DfT press release suggests Bedford-Milton Keynes-Oxford will be electrified:

^The creation of a high-capacity ^electric spine^ running from Yorkshire and the West Midlands to South Coast ports allowing more reliable electric trains to cut journey times and boost capacity for passengers and freight. This comprises: an ^800m electrification and upgrade from Sheffield ^ through Nottingham, Derby and Leicester ^ to Bedford, completing the full electrification of the Midland Main Line out of London St Pancras; and electrification of the lines from Nuneaton and Bedford to Oxford, Reading, Basingstoke and Southampton.

I think we can now expect the HST replacement for Paddington to the West of England to be Meridians & Voyagers trains.  Wouldn't put any bets on any more HST refurbishment now.

Having said that, all the electrification being announced is really wonderful news.  As Grandsire points out, the clear implication now is that Bletchley - Oxford will not just reopen but will be electified as part of a through freight route.  Bletchley Flyover gets its intended role after fifty years and Bedford - Bletchley wll now be an EMU rather than 150/153.   

All this must herald the end of the Pacer too.

The extent of the electrification projects is shown on the DfT map:

http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/hlos-2012/map-all-schemes.pdf

This confirms not only the Valleys + Cardiff but also Basingstoke - Reading, Oxford - Coventry (and Nuneaton), Oxford - Bedford and the Thames Valley branches

Remarkable. No short diesel IEP's now needed for South Wales trains. Cross Country trains to North West entirely electric (Scotland, Manchester, to Southampton). It could even mean wires South of Basingstoke.

On the down side, the Erewash Valley line is omitted as is anything North of Sheffield, so a Yorkshire/Northern freight spine is nonsense. TPE is extended to Selby (to give 2nd access to ECML from Leeds and also for Yorks Metro stopping services), but not to Hull.

So better than we expected for the Sunny (and wet) South but mixed results further North. Perhaps the rail system there needs more basic upgrades, (like the Manchester Hub) before wires are appropriate.

Any inside knowledge?

OTC

It explicity states there'll be wires south of Basingstoke as far as 'Southampton Port' 

(I'm wondering if they might have to do the diversionary route via Laverstock - because they intend to use that for the normal weekday freight timetable as and when required frequencies increase.)

I think regarding the MML, there's a lot of scope for incremental additions before it is even started.  MML won't necessarily commence until mid-period, because GWML will still be in progress in 2017.  So they could add Sheffield to Leeds and Doncaster in  the next HLOS in 2017 and still tack it onto the MML lengths that've been announced so far?

Paul

Via Laverstock - there's a thought.  Might as well carry on the short distance  into Salisbury if they do (and I can see it being logical for the reasons you state, Paul).

Similarly, in additions to the MML, I can see the line north of Corby being added in, again as a diversionary/freight route. 

Indeed. No longer needed in South Wales, while under 'West', this document (http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/hlos-2012/illustrative-options.pdf) promises "Route gauge clearance for different DMUs". That sounds to me like sending 16Xs west.

Widely forecast in various RUSs, Route plans, even Rolling stock strategies etc, so not too surprising.

It was mentioned in the Labour government's electrification strategy as well:


So that's Turbos to Bristol, and older stuff to the north...

Paul

Couldn't they have done some swapsiees with Chiltern (the other user of stock that has vehicles 23m long but as wide as 20m vehicles elsewhere) to avoid the need to guage-clear anything? Anyway, 16xs around Bristol isn't too bad an idea so long as they don't get on the Cardiff - Portsmouth services (my opinion is those should remain 158s, though a fourth carriage would be nice).

While a good number of Pacers will be released thanks to the schemes announced in the HLOS, I suspect it isn't quite enough to completly rid Northern of the things.

What an amazing day of announcements, which went much further than I think anyone dared speculate.

So much to digest over the coming weeks as the detail becomes clearer, but I think pretty much everything on my sensible investment wish list (along with a few extra items) has been given the green light.  Brilliant stuff!   ;D

I agree it has gone a lot further than I expected it too, although the electrification network is getting to that tipping point where it is becoming economical, also the UK Government are looking 25 to 30 years ahead  :o :o as hydrocarbon fuel starts to run out

And its interesting that Derby-Birmingham-Bristol electrification is proposed for CP6.  Think we can assume, finance permitting ( and it is inevitable that timetables will slip), that all major routes will be electric - perhaps even Chiltern!

That'll be the last to be done.  After all, they're such a backward thinking company, having just bought new DMUs and intent on investing in new diesel locomotives.  Diesel is so last year!  ;)

Perhaps most interesting is what all this means for IEP bi-mode. With MML giving up their Meridians - and maybe XC giving up Voyagers on the NW-SE route? - there'll be a cascade of 22Xs with a good number of years left in them. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they end up down here, with bi-mode being quietly forgotten.

My concerns are, as ever, about capacity and passenger comfort.
Despite the benifits of electric traction, most passengers will not regard replacing a proper HST with a 4 car suburban EMU as an improvement.

In recent years the priority has been to replace facing seats at tables with bus seats, to minimise catering, to reduce legroom, and to replace long distance 2+2 seating with suburban 3+2 seating.
To increase fares for genuine improvements is perhaps fair enough, but to charge higher fares for shorter, higher density suburban type trains in place of formerly inter-city trains will not go down very well.

There is considerable resentment felt by regular passengers on services from London Liverpool street about the most recent improvements, 8 car high density trains instead of 12 car long distance units.
The surplus stock being returned to the leasing company.


This also begs the question, if TOCs cant afford the leasing costs of existing full length EMUs, how are they going to afford the presumably higher leasing costs of newly built EMUs for newly electrified lines ?

Or is it taken for granted that the new trains will be shorter ?

Surely the timescales aren't going to be right for that? The GW electrification will be done before MML won't it, and bi-modes will be needed for the Cotswolds, Cheltenham etc services before any displacement of 22xs could take place.

Hopefully- it seems churlish to seem to be complaining after so much has been announced today, including electrified E-W!, but the Sheffield Leeds gap does rather stand out now. Given what you'd said previously about the indicative budget looking like it did include routes north of Sheffield, I wonder what has changed. Did the route south of Sheffield end up costing a lot more than expected?  But if the expectation is that the timescale is such that these infills follow logically into the next CP then this makes a lot more sense.

New trains will be needed when HSTs break, rather than when the wires go up; there's no reason you can't keep HSTs running under the wires. FGW have seemed fairly optimistic about the chances of keeping them going for a few more years, and obviously electrification to Bristol and Swansea reduces the size of the fleet that has to be maintained.