Great Western Coffee Shop

The railway industry as a whole recognised that they are going to have to place an order for new DMUS sooner rather than later.

The 14Xs and 150/3/6 are all coming up to 30 years old and not producing very good reliability figures which will probably get worse. So should be replaced asap.

In addition it won't be until 2016 at least  that any large scale cascade of modern units will take place with the 165/6s from the Thames Valley.
 
In the meantime looking on the board every one wants more units, St Ives, Falmouth, Newquay, Looe? main line in Cornwall, Paignton, Bristol suburban, Melksham, Weymouth either to stengthen and provide more seats on existing trains or in the case of Melksham provide a decent service. Multiply that around the country even with the spread of electrification there will still be enough work for such a fleet to give it a thirty year life. Don't forget the 158/9 will soon be 30 years old as will the 165/6s.

I know that at the "bean counters" behest to increase profits operators,
have got very good at flogging units to death, but there is limit to how much sticky backed plastic you can wrap around a 14X.

Also with modern engines we won't have to keep getting derogations to continue to run the smokey old units.

Suggest a fairly lightweight 2 car unit (possibly articulated) or with a central power pack as the Stadler units, post TWPS collision resistance say 8 hp per ton two types. High density with 1/3 - 2/3 doors and a RE type with end doors for longer mainline journies. They could if they had diesel electric drive be converted into EMUS when the time comes. Drop out the deisel power pack winch in the transformer and control gear.

"Nurse when's my next pill due?"

Yes, I think the 172 production line should have been continuous until all 14x and 15x units were replaced.

There are disability problems too, not to mention the lack of A/C or info screens.

172s would be inappropriate for replacing Sprinters (except perhaps 150s). There's been nothing built recently using the lightweight concept of the sprinters for keeping down costs such as track damage (perhaps crash regs mean it isn't even possible). Neither has anything suitable for the regional-express work done by 158s appeared recently, the 175s have the door layout and a fairly well laid out interior (though the seats are too hard) but lack the flexibility of inter-unit corridor connections that 158s have. Given how passengers these days seem to dislike changing train, portion working with 158s would be a useful way of providing direct trains to multiple destonations, allowing passengers to 'change trains' while in motion and without alighting onto a cold, wet, platform. I personally think sprinters should be made to last as long as possible, prefrablly replaced without ordering DMUs by extending electrification. This wouldn't necessarily be done directly, for example electrifying the rest of the Waterloo - Exeter route could use 444s displaced by an order for new units similar to on their current routes, and the 159s could replace 2-car 158s elsewhere which could in turn replace 156s. An even better idea might be to electrify the Salisbury - Southhampton - Romsey route to release those SWT 158s, and order more 444s to cascade 450s from Waterloo - Portsmouth services onto that route and the Lymington branch.

Pacers however need to go ASAP. ValleyLines electrification could, I hope, rid both Wales and Great Western of the things (electrics on Valleys releasing 8 150s to replace the last 8 GW Pacers). If Maesteg, Ebbw Vale and Swansea are all electrified, there might be enough 150s released to cover most of the service improvments wanted in Wales (the ones that need 158s being the exceptions, which I hope Edinbrough - Glasgow electrification will provide for).

I think ordering new DMUs should be avoided like the plauge, electrification should be the way forward (esspecially for Intercity services, we shouldn't need bi-mode IEP). An order for more 172s (with corridor connections like London Midland's examples) might still be needed for the Melksams of this world, and to rid Northern of Pacers though.

As you rightly say, 158s are barely half way through their expected life. They should be good for another 15-20 years.

But I see little scope for a cascade of SWTs fleet elsewhere until such time as their is the money and will to electrify large parts of SWT network with 25kV AC OLE. It's highly unlikely that any major extensions to 750V DC third rail will ever happen.

I suspect a new build of DMUs will be needed to replace 14x and 150. There are too many routes that see little or no hope of getting wired.

Electrification is the way forward, but generation and distribution also need to considered. That means more nuclear and more 400kV transmission lines. There will be protracted delays in securing these through the usually planning, inquiry and building stages. So it'll be new DMUs coming along first.