Essentially, if Crossrail simply takes over the Relief Lines as far as Old Oak the choke point on the Western will move from Reading, which has just been expensively extended, to the Paddington throat.
Actually to make it work the adoption of
ATO▸ (Automatic Train Operation) set the entry / exit past the
OOC▸ area on both routes even on 2 tracks for sole Crossrail use 24tph is achievable,
I realise that 24 tph and more is possible on the ATO-equipped Crossrail tracks. The point I was trying to make is that, if the layout is built as currently planned
and Crossrail is extended to the
WCML▸ branching off at Old Oak, then effectively there will be only two tracks for longer distance trains on the Great Western main line from Southall West inwards - the last current Up Relief to Up Main crossing before the Reliefs become dedicated Crossrail tracks. With 24 tph from Old Oak inwards there will be no leeway to be able to use the Reliefs to work round a problem on the Mains without screwing up the Crossrail services and no room for other trains anyway especially if they have to leave the Crossrail tracks via a flat single lead junction to a single line near Portobello.
One may be able to run 24 or 30 trains per hour on the Mains in each direction to serve the train shed using modern cab-signalling, but that is theoretical for trains with identical acceleration and speed characteristics - not everything on the Mains will be
SETs▸ . At this density no trains will be able to make any stops on the mains between Reading and Paddington. That will delight the travellers from Twyford, Maidenhead and Slough... The trains will have originating points ranging from Penzance, Paignton, Carmarthern, Hereford, Bedwyn, Oxford, Weston-Super-Mare and so on and be subject to varying delays on their journeys. It is essential to allow some slack in the timetabling to be able to offer a reliable service.
To get such an intensive timetable to work trains will have to be presented at Reading - the last sensible place where the running order can be changed on a route with tracks paired by use and not direction - within seconds of right time to give them a fighting chance of getting through the two track section into Paddington without causing problems. If outer suburban trains from places like Oxford will still be using the Reliefs to serve stations such as Maidenhead and Slough, they will have to switch to and from the Mains at Southall - and more likely at Stockley Bridge Junction to avoid the Heathrow traffic - as they will no longer fit on the Reliefs from Old Oak inwards. Both are flat junctions...
A few years ago I lived in Munich and saw such a problem at first hand. The S-Bahn passes 30 trains per hour in the peaks (Crossrail, eat your heart out...!) through the tunnels under Munich. There are a series of grade-separated junctions to the west of the Hauptbahnhof as the various branches peel off the pair of S-Bahn tracks. At Laim the route for both the S1 and S2 branches leave the main stretch and then, immediately following, there is another grade separated junction where the S1, for the airport, leaves the S2 for Petershausen. The S1 then made a flat junction with the twin-track
DB» main line where it shares the tracks along the Isar valley with trains to Landshut, Regensburg and Plattling as far as Neufahrn where it leaves on a grade separated junction for the airport.
Although the traffic density on this main line was not high, there were sufficient trains, both passenger and freight, to upset the timekeeping of the S1 sufficiently often that the trains missed their slots, only some 30 seconds wide, at Laim for inbound trains, and so messed up the intervals and sequencing of trains through the central tunnel. To alleviate this issue yet another grade separated junction was built between Laim and Moosach where the S1 joined the DB's metals.
Having seen the difficulties that operating an intense Crossrail-like service on shared infrastructure can cause, I maintain that unless the Crossrail trains have their own dedicated tracks in those places where the density of Crossrail trains is so high that other traffic cannot be reliably handled, then the reliability not only of the Crossrail service but also that on the main lines will suffer. This means that at least as far out as Old Oak Crossrail trains need their own pair of tracks and both Mains and Reliefs on the Great Western Main Line must continue unbroken through to Paddington. Ideally dedicated Crossrail tracks would extend to Airport Junction for the airport traffic - west of there Crossrail trains run at a lower frequency and so could probably co-exist with the
GW▸ outer-suburban and the freight traffic on the Relief Lines.