"Transport usage will change after lockdown" - Systra report

[whole diary]

[grahame]

From The BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)

The number of people using public transport in Britain's cities could be 20% lower than normal after the end of the coronavirus lockdown.

In London, commuters using buses and tubes could fall by as much as 40% from pre-lockdown levels.

Rail use could drop by 27%, a poll for transport consultants SYSTRA has found.

The survey results capture people's current attitudes about returning to work, but some changes may be carried on into the long term.

The results are bad news for the government, which wants more people to use public transport to cut emissions that are fuelling climate heating.

It could lead to more people driving to work.

It's also challenging for public transport operators, which will face a sharp drop in income until public confidence returns.

But the survey offers a glimmer of good news too. It suggests that of those expecting to reduce their use of buses and trains, 24% said they plan to work from home more, which will reduce emissions.

They said they wanted to save on the commute time and cost, and to strike a better work-life balance.

There's a major boost for video-conferencing, too. As many as 67% of people in the 1,500-strong survey said they believe virtual meetings will replace some or all business trips or meetings.

Katie Hall from SYSTRA said: "Our climate emergency has not been cancelled. There is no doubt that this situation has opened up different ways of working for many, but if people start rejecting public transport over the car for work and leisure trips - that's a massive step backwards. Public transport operators must rise to this challenge."

She said public transport operators must work hard to convince commuters that they'll be safe from the virus.

TravelWatch SouthWest held a board meeting yesterday - an organisation with a lot of expertise and experience in most of the directors, and well informed - or, rather, as far better informed than most of us at the moment. Major writeup over the weekend.

As a statistician, the report by SYSTRA as reported by the BBC worries me - "what does it mean".  Public transport use was not a flat line prior to the shutdown, and it would be amazing if it's a flat line in the future. So talk of 20%, 27% or 40% drops are ill-defined ... are they February 2020 to February 2021, or 2025 or 2030 ...

I do note plans to restart are looking at running around 70% to 80% of services ... perhaps there is a clue in government thinking there?   But I do look also beyond total level to journey length, journey time and journey reason level to tune where the 70% to 80% lies. So, I'm glad to say, are the team at GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway).

[stuving]

The BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) headline says transport use "will" change - but their text says "could". Systra in their version are not even that definite. They say of their survey respondents that they "predict" or "believe" their travel by public transport will decrease.

What strikes me is that only 20% predict a decrease (27% for rail), and half of those say it's for fear of nasty diseases. In a sense, that's not about "after" in the full sense. And, as I said before, by the time any sort of after happens other experiences will have had their effects.

But, now so many people have been forced to try home or tele-working, obviously most of them have concluded it's not the answer.

[Red Squirrel]

14% say they'll find another way to make their journey. It would be useful to see that broken down: if most of them go by bike or walk, great!

[stuving]

14% say they'll find another way to make their journey. It would be useful to see that broken down: if most of them go by bike or walk, great!

Unfortunately, we don't know what that's 14% of. The notes to editor [sic] (always the most informative bit of these things) say:

1. The survey took place between Wednesday 8th and Tuesday 14th April 2020 with a representaKve sample of 1,514 UK^▸ (United Kingdom) adults.
2. The survey covered the following regions: London, South East (excluding London), South West, West Midlands, East Midlands,
Yorkshire and Humberside, North West, North East, East, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.
3. SYSTRA is undertaking further behavioural modelling to understand the wider impacts of the Covid-19 for UK ciKes & regions.

(That's in the PDF version, which isn't much more detailed.)

So, "representative" of what, exactly? It sounds like it's the whole population, including those retired, studying, and otherwise not working. We know a lot of people don't use public transport at all, so if that's the base the percentages quoted are actually pretty high. But the graphic on the web page says: "Public transport passengers say they could make fewer trips after the pandemic" - which makes it sort-of clear that the base is only those who use public transport. Or was it even narrower?