Portishead Line reopening for passengers - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[Lee]

Portishead Railway Group had written a piece containing their best guess at a likely timeframe for reopening, along with an explanation of why it will take some time.

...a possible overall programme from a July 2019 DCO^▸ (Driver Controlled Operation) application could look like this:

o DCO process, to signature   18 months (end Jan 2021)
o Contracts start-up time       6 months (end Jul  2021) See Note *
o Railway and road works      21 months (end Apr 2023)
o Testing period                   4 months (end Aug 2023)

[...]

* A note regarding the contract start-up period

No contracts should be signed until after the DCO has been signed. 

Contractors will then require reasonable contract start-up times – the period during which they will marshal materials, machinery and labour, perhaps also placing subcontracts on other organisations. This all takes time. 

Even then, very little ‘rail’ work can be carried until the various compounds and temporary roadways have been built, and these cannot be built until the DCO is signed off.

In the programme estimate above, PRG Committee has assumed a start-up period of six months. This is generous; the start-up period could be shorter if there is a will to make it so.

You can read their full article here: https://www.portisheadrailwaygroup.org/apr19.html

What stages now remain before one of our great and good take their photo opportunity of digging the first turf to commemorate the commencement of it's construction?

Well, according to Eight Steps to Filton, it looks like we've cracked "GRIP^▸ (Guide to Railway Investment Projects) 4 - You finally agree a scheme" and we've already had a bit of "GRIP 5 - You dither over design", so we are probably somewhere between there and "GRIP 6 - Test construction and commission - At this rate we'll open in 2023."

I'll get me coat 

[chuffed]

More details from the PRAG website about funding and the GRIP^▸ (Guide to Railway Investment Projects) process

PRG April 2019 statement

How the funding was agreed and what happens now

Portishead Railway Group (PRG) Committee have prepared this paper so that residents of Portishead, Pill and the surrounding villages can understand the process that got us here and also the lengthy process that should eventually lead to the reopening of the railway.

It is really important that as many people as possible understand why rebuilding the railway can’t simply start immediately. They can then spread the word – expectations must be realistic to avoid further disappointment.

A recent history of the completion of the funding jigsaw

About a year ago it became clear to PRG Committee that it was unlikely there would be sufficient local money to reopen the line. Therefore, central government was the only other source.
o PRG Committee decided that ‘being nice’ with central government wouldn’t result in additional funding.
o PRG therefore adopted a strategy that can be summarised as ‘firm insistence’. Some of PRG Committee met with Dr Fox in June 2018, with follow-up correspondence sent to him as a record of the discussion.
o A further letter was sent in September 2018, reminding Dr Fox that the railway wouldn’t go ahead unless central government released some funding. Dr Fox, Tim Bowles of the West of England Combined Authority (WECA^» (West of England Combined Authority - about)) and Nigel Ashton, leader of North Somerset Council (NSC) have individually met with Chris Grayling and Department for Transport (DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)) officials, on several occasions.  MetroWest have also had several meetings with DfT officials. Chris Grayling wrote a letter, insisting that WECA and NSC must work together on solving the wider Bristol area transport issues, and that local funding sources must be fully exhausted.
o WECA and NSC issued ‘working together’ undertakings.
o A further £16m of local funding was identified. To complete its strategy, PRG Committee had an article entitled ‘Why is Portishead still waiting for its railway to reopen?’ published in the Railwatch quarterly magazine on 2 April 2019. The article:
o Made it clear that the remaining funding shortfall of £32m could now only be provided by central government.
o Proposed a combined national and local funding solution for future railway reinstatement schemes up and down the country. On Monday 8 April, central government stumped up the missing piece of the funding jigsaw: £31.9m PRG wasn’t the only organisation trying to prise open central government’s purse –  NSC, WECA, MetroWest, as well as PRG, have all played their part.
o The release of £31.9m of additional funding will have resulted from pressure applied by all of these organisations, not just by one particular organisation or individual.
o  As a result, no single organisation or individual should claim sole ‘bragging rights’.

Why rebuilding the railway can't just start immediately

Railway reinstatement is governed by the need for planning permission, just like almost all ‘build something’ projects.

More importantly, the Planning Act 2008 sets out a specific protocol for approval to spend public money on public infrastructure projects such as Hinckley Point ‘C’, or reopening the Portishead-Bristol line.
o These projects are known as Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects. Why is reopening the Portishead line deemed to be a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project?
o Because between Portbury Junction and Portishead more than 2km of track will be built (the main criterion for railways within the Planning Act 2008). That may seem an astonishingly short length of track to be Nationally Significant but please bear in mind that the on-going cost of upkeep (maintenance and replacement) falls to central government in future years.
o Therefore any track built and added to the rail network forever increases the cost of maintaining the rail network. This ongoing increased upkeep funding commitment must be properly authorised and accepted, via a Development Consent Order. The Planning Act 2008 mandates the approval of the relevant Secretary of State before work can start on a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project.
o This is achieved by a Development Consent Order (DCO^▸ (Driver Controlled Operation)). The application for a DCO has to be submitted by MetroWest to the Planning Inspectorate (the government body charged with assessing DCO applications) who then make a recommendation to the relevant Secretary of State. A huge number of documents have to be written to support a DCO application.
o One of them is a Full Funding Statement which obviously couldn’t be written until central government had stumped up the final piece of the funding jigsaw: £31.9m.

PRG understands that MetroWest hope to submit the DCO application to the Planning Inspectorate in June or July but there is still a massive amount of work to do.

The DCO process and why it is important

For Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects, obtaining a DCO is the equivalent of obtaining planning permission, but at a national level.

o Because reinstating the Portishead railway is classed as a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project under the criteria set out in the Planning Act 2008, a DCO is required. Therefore, it is a legal requirement that an application for a DCO has to be made to the Planning Inspectorate, under a process that is published and maintained by the Planning Inspectorate.
o MetroWest has the responsibility for preparing and submitting the DCO application –  hopefully in June or July. The process operated by the Planning Inspectorate takes a standard 18 month period, regardless of the topic or the size of the project.
o Assuming the application is received by the Planning Inspectorate by the end of July, a decision could reasonably be expected in Q1 2021.
o There are circumstances which could lead to a longer assessment period, or possibly a shorter assessment period, but it seems these rarely occur.

A possible overall programme

The railway works are complicated:

o Construction compounds and temporary roadways have to be built first.
o Much of the line through the Avon Gorge is in a Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), with almost no access.
o The line has to be sufficiently available for Royal Portbury Dock rail traffic to run. Very little work can start until the DCO has been signed off by the Secretary of State although NSC may start some roadway works ahead of the DCO being signed.
o These could be separately authorised locally, if that is seen as advantageous. However, with a railway works programme of around 21 months, plus time for testing (signals, points control, and the necessary safety interlocks) it seems likely that the roadway infrastructure works can be carried out in parallel with the railway works. So a possible overall programme from a July 2019 DCO application could look like this:
o DCO process, to signature   18 months (end Jan 2021)
o Contracts start-up time       6 months (end Jul  2021) See Note *
o Railway and road works      21 months (end Apr 2023)
o Testing period                   4 months (end Aug 2023)

Possible total:  approximately 49 months from DCO submission

This sort of programme is little more than a reasoned guess at this stage, based on provisional information.
o Unexpected geological issues uncovered during the works in the Avon Gorge could extend the railway works period.
o As a counterbalance, the railway and road works period and the final test period could both be slightly shorter.

Trains could therefore be running as early as the end of Q2 2023 but a more realistic estimate might be by the end of Q3 or possibly the end of Q4 2023.

* A note regarding the contract start-up period

No contracts should be signed until after the DCO has been signed. 

Contractors will then require reasonable contract start-up times – the period during which they will marshal materials, machinery and labour, perhaps also placing subcontracts on other organisations. This all takes time. 

Even then, very little ‘rail’ work can be carried until the various compounds and temporary roadways have been built, and these cannot be built until the DCO is signed off.

In the programme estimate above, PRG Committee has assumed a start-up period of six months. This is generous; the start-up period could be shorter if there is a will to make it so.

PRG Committee hopes the reader now has a good grasp of why these things have been, are, and will be, this complex, and therefore why work cannot start for around another two years. 

_{Formatting cleaned up - RS}

[Red Squirrel]

Interesting times in North Somerset! Not only have the Conservatives lost control of the council, but deputy leader Elfin Ap Rees has lost his seat.

As has happened elsewhere in the country, the Lib Dems and independents have made big gains.

Portishead has elected four 'Portishead Independents', a Lib Dem, and a further independent. The Portishead Independents promise to:

Vote and campaign against housing developments without a clear infrastructure
Establish a community led plan for Portishead
Create accountable government for our town
Protect our natural environment and greenbelt.
Back community projects with proven public support.
Develop local partnerships to distribute resources fairly

_{(source: https://portisheadindependents.com/index.html )}

...so, perhaps surprisingly, no reference to the railway; in fact I can't find any mention of it anywhere on their website or their Facebook page...

It'll be interesting to see whether this alters North Somerset's isolationist stance towards WECA^» (West of England Combined Authority - about). Of course there's also always a slight worry that central government may be less amenable to getting its chequebook out, now that North Somerset is no longer true blue.
 

[grahame]

...so, perhaps surprisingly, no reference to the railway; in fact I can't find any mention of it anywhere on their website or their Facebook page...

The top page picks up "traffic" and "parking" as key issues for them to address .. and perhaps an oblique reference in the main text ...

4. Promote car sharing and alternative public public transport schemes that reduce traffic.

I suspect their proof reader should have deleted one copy of the word "public" but as members here will know, I should be the last one to criticise accuracy of spelling and getting the words right.

[stuving]

I suspect their proof reader should have deleted one copy of the word "public" but as members here will know, I should be the last one to criticise accuracy of spelling and getting the words right.

Maybe it refers to public transport for an alternative public ... very Brechtian.

[Robin Summerhill]

Interesting times in North Somerset! Not only have the Conservatives lost control of the council, but deputy leader Elfin Ap Rees has lost his seat.

As has happened elsewhere in the country, the Lib Dems and independents have made big gains.
A. Of course there's also always a slight worry that central government may be less amenable to getting its chequebook out, now that North Somerset is no longer true blue.
 

That's not the way that politics work - money tends to be thrown at seats that governments are afraid they might lose.

That said, Liam Fox's majority was quite impressive last time. Things would have to get a lot more dire than they currently are before that seat gets considered to be a marginal (2017 results below):

Conservative       Liam Fox    Votes 33,605    vote_share 54.2    
Labour           Greg Chambers    Votes 16,502    vote_share 26.6    
Liberal Democrat Richard Foord    Votes 5,982    vote_share 9.6    
Independent    Donald Davies    Votes 3,929    vote_share 6.3
Green Party    Charley Pattison Votes 1,976    vote_share 3.2    

[caliwag]

You make no mention of the Greens who did quite well elsewhere, I'd have they would promote rail, if they got a seat that is!

[martyjon]

Interesting times in North Somerset! ....

Yes indeed.

Will Long Ashton P & R finally be allowed to be used on Sundays and later in the evenings for sporting Fixtures at Ashton Gate Stadium and for the concerts/events planned for this summer, Rod Stewart, The Spice Girls to name just two.

Will the new administration of this Parish Council morph into a fully fledged Unitary Authority and come in from the cold and join WECA^» (West of England Combined Authority - about) as a full member authority rather than a reluctant co-opted joint committee member.

WECA's May meeting is certainly going to be interesting.

[Red Squirrel]

You make no mention of the Greens who did quite well elsewhere, I'd have they would promote rail, if they got a seat that is!

Apologies! The Greens, as you suggest, did do well - they now have 3 seats in North Somerset. Full results are here: http://sites.n-somerset.gov.uk/sites/districtelection/Pages/default.aspx

[Lee]

I have received a message from Paul Gardner, Independent Councillor for Portishead East.

Broadly, their group fully supports the railway, but want to see a much higher frequency than the currently planned hourly service 

They would really appreciate any data and information from the prospective passenger perspective, and are happy to meet with us to discuss all of the above.

[Robin Summerhill]

I have received a message from Paul Gardner, Independent Councillor for Portishead East.

Broadly, their group fully supports the railway, but want to see a much higher frequency than the currently planned hourly service 

They would really appreciate any data and information from the prospective passenger perspective, and are happy to meet with us to discuss all of the above.

They can "want" whatever they like, but the practicalities of operating more frequently on a predominantly single track railway will significantly restrict the options, unless they want to knock parts of the Avon Gorge down. And being the Green party I have my doubts that they would like the idea of that (especially after I've just listened to Any Questions on radio 4 and heard what one of their 'erberts had to say about HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))...  ).

Before they start to compile a wish list from a "potential passenger perspective," they need to be made fully aware of what is realistically possible and/or feasible.

[Lee]

I think you can rest assured we will be doing just that, Robin  Its the view of the Portishead Independents rather than the Greens though, although we would be happy to hear from them as well.

We will be looking to include forum members when we do meet them, so if you are interested Robin, let us know via PM, and that extends to other members reading this.

[Red Squirrel]

And being the Green party...

Just to be clear, none of the four Portishead wards has elected a Green Party councillor. Green councillors have been elected in Backwell, Long Ashton, and Banwell and Winscombe.

[Robin Summerhill]

And being the Green party...

Just to be clear, none of the four Portishead wards has elected a Green Party councillor. Green councillors have been elected in Backwell, Long Ashton, and Banwell and Winscombe.

I consider myself suitably admonished. Its always best to properly read what one's quoting before one spouts off about it 

[TonyK]

Its always best to properly read what one's quoting before one spouts off about it 

I know, but it can be fun doing it the other way around.