Portishead Line reopening for passengers - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[Kempis]

The story was covered on BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) Radio Bristol this morning (advance slider to 36:30):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04sz69b.

FOSBR^▸ (Friends of Suburban Bristol Railways)'s press release is here:

http://fosbr.org.uk/files/20170309_mwp1_fosbr_pressrelease.pdf.

[grahame]

The change in price is astonishing.

Was the previous price quoted just a rough estimate with a range of possibilities so wide that the range of possibilities wasn't publicised?   I other words, I note we have gone from a single estimate to a range; should the estimate have said "between £50 million and £200 million"?

Have unforeseeable issues come to light which widen (double) the scope of the project?

Has there been project creep? Have we moved from a 30 m.p.h. line to a 70 m.p.h. on, for example, or have safety issues such as level crossing requirements changed?

Have prices rocketed?   In a market where there's a shortage of suppliers, prices tend to go up so that only those who want the supplies most badly (or rather "who can most afford it") go ahead, and where there's a monopoly / cartel of suppliers, those suppliers tend to be able to name their price.


I am tempted to wonder if an hourly 30 m.p.h. D train, running over light rail track from the end of the current alignment to a basic platform at Portishead and with gaps for freight (from BRI^» (Bristol Temple Meads - next trains) at - say 05:45 to 09:45, 12:30, 15:00 to 19:00, 21:30 to 23:30 from BRI, 30 minute later from PHD) would encourage traffic.  I rather suspect it would, to the extent that it would need 2 D trains coupled together for the round trips at 06:45, 07:45, 16:00, 17:00, 18:00 and (on Friday and Saturday nights) 22:30 and 23:30.

Looking on Real Time Trains to get an idea of how much traffic currently runs to the docks, I've drawn a blank for today - probably because I don't know the codes / know want to look for,. Can someone please enlighten me so they can help confirm the idea above, or blow it out of the water as being just too silly due to capacity issues.

Could Keith Walton's talk at TravelWatch SouthWest about how the Severnside CRP^▸ (Community Rail Partnership) brought in a huge improvement at Severn Beach station at a fraction of the cost quoted to the partnership be a valid lead into providing something beyond a bare platform at Portishead, and further more providing something that gave community ownership.

[SandTEngineer]

I see someone has beaten me to it on the linespeed question: http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=231.msg210869#msg210869

(Note to moderators: We seem to be discussing this line in two separate threads; bit of merging required?)

[Chris from Nailsea]

Thank you for confirming my own inclination to do a bit of constructive 'moving and merging' here, SandTEngineer. 

I did look into it quickly, a couple of days ago, when I was rather limited for time - but I have now taken the opportunity to move some posts and merge them here.

These latest developments on the financial constraints do seem to show that the planning of the whole project has been a bit of a dog's breakfast, in my opinion.

[SandTEngineer]

Thanks for burning the midnight oil CfN.  Makes more sense now.

[John R]

Looking on Real Time Trains to get an idea of how much traffic currently runs to the docks, I've drawn a blank for today - probably because I don't know the codes / know want to look for,. Can someone please enlighten me so they can help confirm the idea above, or blow it out of the water as being just too silly due to capacity issues.

From what I can see there is only one regular traffic flow now, which is an automotive train that passes through Bristol at around 6pm on its way to Mossend a couple of times a week, (and of course there has to be an equivalent inbound working).  There are a couple of coal slots but they appear to be cancelled frequently currently.  So with a bit of rejigging of that slot, surely the fact of freight is likely to be minimal.

Having said that I believe the Docks paid for the line to be reinstated, so they I suspect they have a strong contractual right to first dibs on the line's use currently.

The difference between 30mph and 50mph is 5 mins between the current stop board and Ashton loop. If it could be raised to 35 or even 40 in places without any work that would reduce that difference further.  That's hardly going to make a great difference to the attractiveness of the service.

I'd argue that 1tph over Ashton crossing in each direction is hardly enough to warrant it's closure, particularly given the traffic over it.

So there are ways to reduce the cost, and I hope those parties involved are sensible and take them, as a gold plated scheme is clearly unaffordable.

[broadgage]

According to reports on the local TV news a few days ago, the discovery of rare newts is one reason for the increased costs.
Looks like the NR^» (Network Rail - home page) newt breeding department are doing well !

[chuffed]

Not again !  The ones that I suspect were planted by the Co-op to try and prevent Sainsbury's rolling into town. Didn't work! Better don my hard hat and prepare for another noot shewt .

[Chris from Nailsea]

Hmmm. 

See also http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=2662.0 

CfN. 

[trainer]

Be they newts, bats or endangered flora, none is as rare as a train on the tracks in Portishead. 

[TonyK]

Bear in mind that the original Halcrow GRIP3 report was working towards a 50 mph linespeed. That would do the journey, with one stop only at Pill, in 17 minutes. That would allow for a clockface service from PHD to SVB, and from PHD to BTH^» (Bath Spa - next trains), plus an occasional shuttle PHD to BRI^» (Bristol Temple Meads - next trains) P2. Now, 30 mph would be slower (d'uh) but would still allow for a clockface shuttle into BRI. Maybe a 24 minute ride, with a turnaround on the half-hour. But is that enough?

[grahame]

Bear in mind that the original Halcrow GRIP3 report was working towards a 50 mph linespeed. That would do the journey, with one stop only at Pill, in 17 minutes. That would allow for a clockface service from PHD to SVB, and from PHD to BTH^» (Bath Spa - next trains), plus an occasional shuttle PHD to BRI^» (Bristol Temple Meads - next trains) P2. Now, 30 mph would be slower (d'uh) but would still allow for a clockface shuttle into BRI. Maybe a 24 minute ride, with a turnaround on the half-hour. But is that enough?

I checked my GRIP^▸ (Guide to Railway Investment Projects) stages:

1. Output Definition – Establishes the scope of investment and potentially asset renewal.
2. Feasibility – Defines the investment goals and identifies constraints to ensure that they can be achieved both economically and strategically.
3. Option Selection – Assesses potential options and selects the most appropriate one to deliver stakeholders’ requirements.
4. Single Option Development – The implementation of the option selected during the third step.
5. Detailed Design – The creation of a detailed engineering plan that provides definitive costs, times, resources and risk assessments.
6. Construction Test & Commission – The project will be completed to the agreed specifications and testing will commence in order to confirm that everything is operating within the design brief.
7. Scheme Handback – The transfer of asset responsibility from the contractor to the operators.
8. Project Closeout – Contracts are settled while contingencies and warranties are put into place before an assessment of the benefits is finally carried out.

And have to wonder if the Halcrow report is really stage 3 ... or if it's stage 4 (developing a single option) with some stage 2 (identifying constraints to see if it's economic) thrown in.

[TonyK]

There was definitely a GRIP3 report completed in October 2010 by Halcrow, although the link I have for it via Travelwest no longer works. I wish I had downloaded it now - it was interesting and had photographs of a lot of the line. The whole scheme went back to GRIP0 with the plans for MetroWest Rail.

[Umberleigh]

Absolute bonkers...what a way to run a projected railway! Where on earth do they get these figures from For three miles of level track !!! Are the rails gold plated ? Are they running Bullet trains on them? Will Portishead station resemble St Pancras ?. Can't we just go back to what was originally projected - a shuttle up and down the line - which as I recall had already reached GRIP^▸ (Guide to Railway Investment Projects) 3/4 before it all went back to GRIP 1, as it was seen as part of a wider Metrowest project. It must be 40 years since the reopening was first mooted ...indeed, I remember estate agents making claims to the effect that the line will  soon be open, at the time. I would willingly walk up and down the line with a red and green flag to save a few pounds on the signalling. The Chinese who built the Lhasa railway must be laughing uproariously up their voluminous sleeves at our unbelievable level of sheer incompetence and accountancy.

Same trick Network Rail play every time they don't fancy taking on the workload. Remember the speculation about reopening Barnstaple to Bideford? Basically an unobstructed, flat trackbed. Yet after initial estimates of sub-£10 million, Network Rail claimed it would cost £80 million, so just a mere £5.3 million per mile of tracked, or if you prefer, over £83 an inch 🤔

http://www.devonlive.com/county-derails-plan-reopen-barnstaple-bideford-railway/story-11654325-detail/story.html

All it needs is ballast and light single track suitable for a dmu, seriously, go and cycle a mile of that cycle path and tell me how it would cost over £5 million...? Oh, it it seems that after the dust has settled, it was realised that the Network Rail figures had been "misquoted" (I remember posting on here about it). So basically, Network Rail inflate the cost to make the Council/supporters/whoever lose faith and thus case closed.

[chuffed]

So the West of England Joint Transport Board met last Friday to discuss how to proceed with Metrowest Phase One. Any one know what was decided ?