Portishead Line reopening for passengers - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[TonyK]

The likely problems were known from the outset. Reinstatement of the freight line was done on the cheap, albeit with provision for reconnection to Portishead in the future. By that, I mean there were points fitted just outside the entrance to the docks, subsequently removed and left in the bushes. Some work was done to lower the floors of tunnels, but it was never intended to be used at anything more than about 20 mph. The signal for rejoining the main line is at the site of the old Ashton Gate station - any closer to Parson Street would have run the risk of the train stalling, and not being able to pull away from a complete stand, which is why that junction needs to be rebuilt.

The easiest bit will probably be relaying the line from the Portbury junction into Portishead.

[alan_s]

Well the cost has now trebled.  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-39209486

A project to restore a disused railway line is under threat due to spiralling projected costs.

The Portishead branch line shut in 1964 and is scheduled to reopen in 2020.

The scheme was originally estimated at £58m, but the West of England Partnership said that figure had now risen to "between £145m and £175m".

It said as the revised costs were outside the existing allocated budget, it would "not be able to commit to delivery of the project at this stage".

"Now we know what is required we can look at how best to move forward to deliver these much needed improvements to the local rail network," it added.

The MetroWest Phase 1 project by the West of England Partnership and partners Network Rail and Great Western Railway (GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway)) would link the town with Bristol Temple Meads and the Severn Beach Line.

A Network Rail report identified additional costs caused by the "increased scope" of engineering works through the Avon Gorge.

Councils in the region also said moving a level crossing in south Bristol would increase costs.

Network Rail described the scheme as a "major project" that required a "robust estimate" of costs.

"We will continue to work together with the West of England Partnership, GWR and the Department for Transport on potential next steps to deliver this project and further improve rail services for passengers," it added.

Transport Secretary Chris Grayling said he "recognises the benefits" of the scheme, and said the Department for Transport would "continue working with all parties to find a workable resolution to this issue".

[chuffed]

Absolute bonkers...what a way to run a projected railway! Where on earth do they get these figures from For three miles of level track !!! Are the rails gold plated ? Are they running Bullet trains on them? Will Portishead station resemble St Pancras ?. Can't we just go back to what was originally projected - a shuttle up and down the line - which as I recall had already reached GRIP^▸ (Guide to Railway Investment Projects) 3/4 before it all went back to GRIP 1, as it was seen as part of a wider Metrowest project. It must be 40 years since the reopening was first mooted ...indeed, I remember estate agents making claims to the effect that the line will  soon be open, at the time. I would willingly walk up and down the line with a red and green flag to save a few pounds on the signalling. The Chinese who built the Lhasa railway must be laughing uproariously up their voluminous sleeves at our unbelievable level of sheer incompetence and accountancy.

[alan_s]

I think to be fair the last 3 miles is the easy bit - it's the line through the Avon Gorge that due to curvature can only take speeds of about 30mph and they need 50 to get a decent service.  On Heart radio they said they might try to go ahead with slower, less-frequent service for starters - but I Can't see that working, as once trains are running regularly there'd never be chance to blast the rocks to straighten the line!

[Western Pathfinder]

Piss up and Brewery spring to mind 

[SandTEngineer]

.....yes, but don't forget, NR^» (Network Rail - home page) is a government organisation after all 

[IndustryInsider]

What did the line speed through the gorge used to be when passenger trains operated?

[Bmblbzzz]

Any idea what the increased costs are? Is it just the same work costing more or have they identified more work that needs (apparently) to be done?

[Oliver]

Disappointing news this morning.

Source: http://www.northsomersettimes.co.uk/news/portishead_railway_reopening_hangs_in_the_balance_as_metrowest_project_soars_100m_over_budget_1_4922718

The first phase of the MetroWest project - which is being partially funded by North Somerset Council – would see trains run half-hourly between Portishead and Bristol with the existing railway station at Pill reopened. The project would also include improvements to the Severn Beach branch line service and upgrading stations and services between Bristol Temple Meads and Bath.

It was initially expected to cost £58million when it was first announced, but the Times reported in January the cost was likely to be ‘considerably more’. The total cost of implementing phase one is now believed to be between £145-175million and has been deemed unaffordable by the team implementing it.

At a press briefing in Bristol yesterday (Wednesday), representatives from North Somerset and MetroWest announced the project’s fate would be sealed at the next meeting of the West of England Joint Transport Board on March 17.

MetroWest and the council are now urging the board to approve splitting the project into three stages – the second of which (stage B) would see trains run to Portishead once an hour in 2021 – in an attempt to reduce costs. The first stage (A) would see improvements made to connections between Bristol and Bath and the Severn Beach branch line, while the third stage (C) would eventually see trains run to Portishead every half an hour as originally promised.

According to MetroWest, the project’s initial estimated cost of £58million has risen by so much because the full impact of works needed to run trains through Avon Gorge every half an hour had been underestimated. The organisation claims running trains at 50mph through the Gorge – which is needed for a half-hourly service – is more expensive and difficult to implement than running them at 30mph once an hour, as this is the speed currently in place along the existing Portbury freight line.

The council’s director of development and environment, David Carter, said: “The process we are suggesting and recommending is to look at stages A and B as they would significantly reduce the cost.

“We believe the work will be done and it will still be delivered in 2021, assuming the funding can be found.

“Stages A and B will still need to attract additional funding, but we believe there will be a significant reduction for A and B compared to C. However, until we have done the work, it is difficult to say exactly what that is.

“We are working with Network Rail and the Department for Transport to close that funding gap.”

For a full reaction to the announcement, pick up a copy of next week’s Times.

How could the project now be delivered?

MetroWest and North Somerset Council are advising the West of England’s Joint Transport Board to split the phase one project into three stages – A, B and C. If the board accepts their recommendation and appropriate funding is found, the stages will be progressed as follows:

A - Carrying out service improvements to the Severn Beach branch line and Bristol-Bath corridor.

B – Reopening the Portishead railway line to provide an hourly service between Portishead and Bristol Temple Meads, with trains running at 30mph.

C – Reopening the Portishead railway line to full capacity, meaning trains will run every half hour at 50mph.

[SandTEngineer]

What did the line speed through the gorge used to be when passenger trains operated?

I'll see if I can find my copy of the 1960 BR^▸ (British Rail(ways))-WR Bristol Division Sectional Appendix.

[grahame]

From ITV

The project was originally estimated to cost £58.2 million - which has now risen to between £145m to £175m.

So where have costs spiralled?

ORIGINAL COST EXPECTATION:

Where did it come from?

£4.3 million from the local Councils

£53.4 million from the WoE LEP^» (Local Enterprise Partnership - about) Local Growth Fund

£0.5 million was yet to be funded.

WHY HAS IT INCREASED SO MUCH?

A "significant increase" in the scope of work through the Avon Gorge to meet safety standards, allowing the passenger service to run twice an hour.

Creating an alternative access from the A370 to compensate for two trains an hour alongside the existing freight services at the Ashton Vale Level crossing.

The impact of this on the land.

Increased risks associated with the project

[alan_s]

Any idea what the increased costs are? Is it just the same work costing more or have they identified more work that needs (apparently) to be done?

see http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/why-have-the-costs-spiralled-so-much-to-re-open-the-portishead-line/story-30190054-detail/story.html

In summary :

A 50mph track would mean:

    Almost completely relaying the track between Parson Street Junction and Pill (10km)
    Widening of cuttings and embankments
    Work on bridges, tunnels and retaining walls

Then there are the environmental issues.

[Oliver]

The 1959 WTT^▸ (Working Time-Table) shows that there was a speed restriction of 35mph over the whole line, with further local restrictions of 20mph and 10mph at the crossing loops. There has been no need for Network Rail or its predecessors to upgrade anything down there since those days.

The original line was single between Clifton Bridge and Portishead, with passing loops at Oak Wood, Pill and Portbury Shipyard. In order to increase the line speed from 30 to 50 then it is possible that some curves may need to be eased and, if that is the case, land purchase may be involved together perhaps with some major engineering work – there is a lot of very solid rock right next to the single line down in that gorge…

Certainly there are things that will need to be done that were not needed when the line was built. For example, level crossings are frowned upon these days and there is at least one at Ashton that will need dealing with, and probably expensively. There would also be new stations to pay for, although seeing the extent of the facilities usually provided these days when new stations open, the costs of these isn’t going to be extortionate.

Furthermore, bearing in mind the financial debacle that the GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) electrification project has become, I can understand why people are erring on the side of caution when it comes to costing projects such as this.

However, and all that said, the line is rather less than 10 miles long (9 miles 49 chains from Parson Street Junction to the original Portishead station), and most of it is still there. The latest estimate of £145m to £175m does not compare particularly favourably with the £350m for the construction of the Borders Railway which is 35.5 miles long and needed complete reconstruction from the outskirts of Edinburgh: http://www.railfuturescotland.org.uk/bordersrailway.php

Whilst those costs for the Borders Railway are at 2012 prices, inflation is not high at the moment so, for round figures, we are now being told that although the Portishead branch is one-third of the length of the Borders Railway it will cost one half of that railway’s cost, despite the fact that the line is generally all still there.

On the face of it, something appears to be gravely amiss somewhere, and I for one would like to know a lot more about how those costs have been arrived at.

[chuffed]

Is it time to resurrect the idea of a coffer dam over the Avon at Sea Mills so that Portishead trains can run on the Severn beach line to give us a real metro like Tyne and Wear ?? Then they wouldnt need all that expensive rebuilding in the Avon Gorge !

[trainer]

For me, all the justification of the new estimate of costs doesn't answer the question about what the original estimates were based on.  Has the Avon Gorge section of the route become suddenly narrowed?  Was the Ashton level crossing a surprise to the surveyors when they got down to the detail?  Did those who gave the original figures imagine a half hourly service was indeed possible at 30mph (only slightly faster than a heritage line train )?

None of what has been said in defence of the revised estimate addresses how it was got wrong, only why it is now allegedly more accurate.

But surely these problems must have been evident as soon as they looked at the original alignment?

Exactly so.