1915 from London Paddington to Swansea

[whole diary]

[simonw]

So, if there is a 1:1 replaced from HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) for IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.), and the problem is not adding capacity to Paddington, but the line, then merely adding a extra carriages will have no effect.

With passenger growth over the last 20 years, and for the future averaging 4+%pa, any slack in the network disappeared 10 years, and merely replacing tired old trains, for faster newer trains does not address capacity. I expect Crossrail will help, but the Network Rail/FGW^▸ (First Great Western) need to go back to the drawing board.

Maybe time for a cheap 15 carriage, no first class, train stopping Reading + Didcott + Swindon + BPW^» (Bristol Parkway - next trains) + BTM^▸ (Bristol Temple Meads (strictly, it should be BRI)) + Bath + ChP + Swindon + Didcott + Reading, and the otherway wunning every hour.   

[ellendune]

So, if there is a 1:1 replaced from HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) for IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.), and the problem is not adding capacity to Paddington, but the line, then merely adding a extra carriages will have no effect.

I don't understand why adding extra carriages would have no effect. 

[IndustryInsider]

So, if there is a 1:1 replaced from HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) for IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.), and the problem is not adding capacity to Paddington, but the line, then merely adding a extra carriages will have no effect.

With passenger growth over the last 20 years, and for the future averaging 4+%pa, any slack in the network disappeared 10 years, and merely replacing tired old trains, for faster newer trains does not address capacity. I expect Crossrail will help, but the Network Rail/FGW^▸ (First Great Western) need to go back to the drawing board.

There isn't a 1:1 HST/IEP replacement.  There are (I believe) around 460 HST carriages currently in operation with GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway).  The IEP Class 800/801s (and follow up AT300 order) to replace them amount to 542 carriages in the current configurations.  So that figure compares very favourably - especially when you take into account nominal lengths of 23m for the old trains and 26m for the new ones.

It's not quite as simple as that of course, as GWR will be losing 25 Class 180 carriages, but to perhaps balance that out, some of the current HST operations between Paddington and Oxford could easily be replaced by Class 387 units.

Many more trains, especially off-peak, are planned for these new units and the infrastructure is being upgraded in order for them to have paths.  The most obvious example is the Reading upgrade, but many other smaller scale upgrades will help.  There will be pinch points (Didcot for me), and I share Rhygaled's concern regarding capacity on South Wales services, but I don't think that NR^» (Network Rail - home page)/GWR have a need to go back to the drawing board quite yet!

For the future, the 9-car Electric IEP's could easily be extended to 10-car units, and capacity will also be improved when ETCS^▸ (European Train Control System) in-cab signalling is introduced.

[LiskeardRich]

There Is seemingly a big demand for London to Bristol/ South Wales travel I was unaware of.

I spent around 1 hour at Victoria coach station today, there were 2 or 3 megabus services to South Wales and a couple of national express services. The 3 megabus services all had duplicates.
My megabus service a Victoria to Penzance double decker coach was at full capacity to Bristol. There were pretty much half hourly or more frequent coaches that went via Bristol on their various routes.

[simonw]

Hello again.

Whilst many services are fit for purpose, some services are clearly not. My journey home on Friday evening, 1915 from LDN PDG could probably have filled a 15 carriage service, never mind an 8 carriage service.

Having spent 5 years commuting from Bristol to Reading daily from 2005-2011, I can confirm that at peak times, it was not uncommon for passengers to stand from Swindon on towards London in the morning, and back to BPW^» (Bristol Parkway - next trains) in the evening. This became more frequent with time, and together with the escalating price where major reason for leaving my job in Reading for a new one in Bristol. The oddity here though is that commute times are about the same.

Despite repeated upgrades delivered and planned, I have not seen or expect to see the uplift in capacity that is needed. I know that CrossRail and IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) will help, but I do not believe they will provide anywhere near the increase in capacity needed.

[grahame]

There isn't a 1:1 HST^▸ (High Speed Train)/IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) replacement.  There are (I believe) around 460 HST carriages currently in operation with GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway).  The IEP Class 800/801s (and follow up AT300 order) to replace them amount to 542 carriages in the current configurations.  So that figure compares very favourably - especially when you take into account nominal lengths of 23m for the old trains and 26m for the new ones.

It's not quite as simple as that of course, as GWR will be losing 25 Class 180 carriages, but to perhaps balance that out, some of the current HST operations between Paddington and Oxford could easily be replaced by Class 387 units.

Should you also further complicate it by taking off an allowance for the pointy bits at the end / crumple zone, etc ... or does that just balance out the extra 3 metres per carriage? And I think there's that thorny subject of the catering space being significantly less.

And I still find myself wondering how the 19:15 compares to the 18:15 and 18:45, and whether the decision people make is price or time based. Pricing (example - to Neath)
18:15 - 124.50 Adult single, 249.00 return
18:45 - 60.60 Adult off peak single, 101.00 return
19:15 - 46.50 Adult super off peak single, 80.80 return
and there's then a gap of an hour ....

Edit to add - if the issue is price based, possible solutions could be (unpopular) not allow groupsave on the 19:15 on a Friday or (popular) start off peak and super off peak half an hour earlier on Fridays [the evening  peak is earlier on a Friday I think, being POETS^▸ (As in "Poets day". Friday. (Push Off Early - Tomorrow's Saturday).) day!]

[chrisr_75]

There Is seemingly a big demand for London to Bristol/ South Wales travel I was unaware of.

I spent around 1 hour at Victoria coach station today, there were 2 or 3 megabus services to South Wales and a couple of national express services. The 3 megabus services all had duplicates.
My megabus service a Victoria to Penzance double decker coach was at full capacity to Bristol. There were pretty much half hourly or more frequent coaches that went via Bristol on their various routes.

Between the South Wales area and Bristol you're looking at a recorded population of just over 2.6 million, 2.2 million of those are in South Wales, so there is significant demand for travel to, from and within this region.

[IndustryInsider]

Despite repeated upgrades delivered and planned, I have not seen or expect to see the uplift in capacity that is needed. I know that CrossRail and IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) will help, but I do not believe they will provide anywhere near the increase in capacity needed.

Time will tell.

[simonw]

I was under the impression that whilst the population of South Wales was 2.2M, Greater Bristol's is 1.2M (Bristol, South Glos, BANES, Woodspring, Wansdyke), although some in Bath, WSM, Thornbury and Chipping Sodbury would deny living in Greater Bristol.
 

[ChrisB]

Graham -

First thing would be to remove any cheaper-than-SOP^▸ (Standard Operating Instructions) Advance fares

[chrisr_75]

I was under the impression that whilst the population of South Wales was 2.2M, Greater Bristol's is 1.2M (Bristol, South Glos, BANES, Woodspring, Wansdyke), although some in Bath, WSM, Thornbury and Chipping Sodbury would deny living in Greater Bristol.
 

As it was the quickest to find, I was quoting the figure for the city of Bristol, which, according to Wikipedia is 428000, with the Bristol Urban Area being just over 600000.

Compare this with the combined resident population of Devon and Cornwall of 1.6 million and you see how significant this region is.

[eightf48544]

Another way is to look at the whole concept of the Evening Peak/Off Peak concept. It seems to me you are always going to have this problem if you have say a 2, 2.5, or even 3 peak sometime  between 16:00 and 19:00. That the first trains after  the peak are going to attract many Off peak ticket holders as well as late commuters.

I gather there are similar problems at Euston where trains just before the end of the peak  go out half or more empty whereas the ones after the peak are rammed.

When I was at Sutton we had Peak and Off peak returns from London Terminii. Enforcing them was a nightmare both at Victoria, turning them away in the mass of commuters, and at Sutton, collecting the excess from ones that got through. Both stations had manned barriers.  Even selling them was a pain as you had to explain they couldn't be used between 16:30 and 18:30. I seem to recall BR^▸ (British Rail(ways)) did away the distinction in the late 60/70s at least a far as Suburban Lines around London.  It was I believe Thameslink that broke the mould in London and was allowed to get away with it.

[grahame]

Another way is to look at the whole concept of the Evening Peak/Off Peak concept. It seems to me you are always going to have this problem if you have say a 2, 2.5, or even 3 peak sometime  between 16:00 and 19:00. That the first trains after  the peak are going to attract many Off peak ticket holders as well as late commuters.

Yep, and I suspect that the intermediate pricing (off-peak) between anytime and superoffpeak is an attempt to level things off. Yet even with off-peak and superoffpeak fares being close in monetary terms, take a look at Paddington and I suspect you'll find that people will either travel peak (without the cost being their priority) or wait for superoffpeak (with cost being prime concern) and the intermediate step is pretty thin in what help it provides - in other works, nearly everyone who's put off by peak prices will wait that extra half hour for superoffpeak and not bother with the intermediate off-peak train.

Alas, that's just a description of how I read human nature and I can't offer a constructive formula to level out the effects ... "super off peak tickets with odd numbers are allowed on the 18:45, but even numbers must wait for the 19:15?" and it becomes a lottery!

[ChrisB]

Errr,,,,didn't off-peak precede super off-peak? Ie it was around well before?

[grahame]

Errr,,,,didn't off-peak precede super off-peak? Ie it was around well before?

Yes ... though I suspect that both have been around long enough for their order of introduction to have little effect of current loading, with even the stickiest of sticks in the mud having changed habits.  I vaguely recall that "off peak" may have been a new level with the old off peak renamed "superoffpeak" anyway - can't imagine there was a whole new cheaper pricing band brought in.