So, how much does a
TOC▸ get fined for a cancelled train?
Well, it's all in the franchise agreement, along with "how to do the sums" as explained by lawyers. So this is how I think it goes, based on the new
FGW▸ (
GWR▸ ?) franchise, but I haven't thoroughly read all 573 pages (yet?).
The Secretary of State calculates a moving average from the figures supplied by FGW (or GWR) of the percentage of trains cancelled. Don't worry - I'm sure someone will give him a hand if he's a bit busy.
This is limited to be between a cap and a floor value, then compared with a target value, which for 2015/16 is 0.58%. It goes down to 0.44% in 2019/20.
The same thing is done for the percentage of trains cancelled and significantly late (CaSL), for which the target is 2.72% falling to 2.26%. There are, of course, a lot of rules defining these measures, and (especially) what can be left out of them.
Depending on whether the each figure is above or below its target, a bonus or penalty is calculated as the cancellation minus target (percentages treated as a numbers) times a big sum of money.
If you want a value per cancelled train, you need to know how many trains there are in a year. The latest figure in the
ORR» 's data heap, for 2014-15, is 517,236. The percentages significantly late and cancelled for that year are 0.5% and 2.5%, but whether those are for the definitions that apply for the franchise payments I do not know. If they are, they are way out of line with the targets.
Taking the figures from the "Annual Cancellations Payment Table" (Part 3 of APPENDIX 1 TO SCHEDULE 7.1 of the franchise agreement) and scaling by the total, we get these ^ per-train figures:
Performance Calculation Year | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2018/19 | 2019/20 |
Bonus, CaSL < target | 869 | 860 | 737 | 1135 | 1274 |
Bonus, CaSL > target | 535 | 529 | 453 | 698 | 784 |
Penalty, CaSL > target | 1738 | 1720 | 1999 | 2269 | 2269 |
Penalty, CaSL < target | 1069 | 1058 | 1230 | 1397 | 1396 |